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I ran my Levelised Energy Cost Model ($/MWH) for the 2MWe electricity
supply over 20 years for a range of turnkey and fuel costs on the plant
using the following assumptions (I used 24% for electrical efficiency
for comparison with a 5MWe SRC system):<br>
<br>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 315pt;" border="0"
cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="419">
<col style="width: 248pt;" width="330"> <col style="width: 67pt;"
width="89"> <tbody>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td style="height: 12.75pt; width: 248pt;" height="17" width="330">Annual
operations (hours)</td>
<td class="xl65" style="width: 67pt;" align="right" width="89">7,500</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Annual O&M as % of
initial investment</td>
<td class="xl66" align="right">10.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Discount rate</td>
<td class="xl66" align="right">5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Plant electrical
efficiency<br>
</td>
<td class="xl66" align="right">24.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Fuel Moisture content</td>
<td class="xl66" align="right">47.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td class="xl68" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">GCV (MJ/kg)</td>
<td class="xl67" align="right">19.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 421pt;" border="0"
cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="557">
<col style="width: 67pt;" width="89"> <col style="width: 59pt;"
span="6" width="78"> <tbody>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td class="xl68" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 67pt;" height="17"
width="89">Plant cost</td>
<td colspan="6" class="xl68"
style="border-right: 0.5pt solid black; width: 354pt;" width="468">Fuel
cost/tonne</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td class="xl65" style="border-top: medium none; height: 12.75pt;"
height="17" align="right"><br>
</td>
<td class="xl63" style="border-top: medium none;" align="right">$0.0</td>
<td class="xl63" style="border-top: medium none;" align="right">$10.0</td>
<td class="xl63" style="border-top: medium none;" align="right">$20.0</td>
<td class="xl63" style="border-top: medium none;" align="right">$30.0</td>
<td class="xl63" style="border-top: medium none;" align="right">$40.0</td>
<td class="xl64" style="border-top: medium none;" align="right">$50.0</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td class="xl66" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"
align="right">$16,000,000</td>
<td class="xl69"
style="border-top: medium none; border-left: medium none;"
align="right">$188.18</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border-top: medium none;" align="right">$206.42</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border-top: medium none;" align="right">$224.65</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border-top: medium none;" align="right">$242.88</td>
<td class="xl70" style="border-top: medium none;" align="right">$261.12</td>
<td class="xl71" style="border-top: medium none;" align="right">$279.35</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td class="xl66" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"
align="right">$17,000,000</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border-left: medium none;" align="right">$199.94</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$218.18</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$236.41</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$254.64</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$272.88</td>
<td class="xl74" align="right">$291.11</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td class="xl66" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"
align="right">$18,000,000</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border-left: medium none;" align="right">$211.71</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$229.94</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$248.17</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$266.40</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$284.64</td>
<td class="xl74" align="right">$302.87</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td class="xl66" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"
align="right">$19,000,000</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border-left: medium none;" align="right">$223.47</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$241.70</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$259.93</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$278.17</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$296.40</td>
<td class="xl74" align="right">$314.63</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td class="xl66" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"
align="right">$20,000,000</td>
<td class="xl72" style="border-left: medium none;" align="right">$235.23</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$253.46</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$271.69</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$289.93</td>
<td class="xl73" align="right">$308.16</td>
<td class="xl74" align="right">$326.39</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td class="xl67" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"
align="right">$21,000,000</td>
<td class="xl75" style="border-left: medium none;" align="right">$246.99</td>
<td class="xl76" align="right">$265.22</td>
<td class="xl76" align="right">$283.46</td>
<td class="xl76" align="right">$301.69</td>
<td class="xl76" align="right">$319.92</td>
<td class="xl77" align="right">$338.16</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br>
this is without the revenue from heat sales which would bring the
levelised cost down a bit depending on what they can sell the steam for
and for how many hours a year. If they're using the steam for chillers
as well as space heating this would help bump up steam revenue. Based
on some European data, heat capacity factors might be as low as 15-20%.
<br>
<br>
It would be interesting to know the UBC campus electricity load
profile. If the baseload is less than 2MWe they will either have to
turndown (less hours to amortise the supply over which pushes up the
price/kWh) or sell into the Canadian grid at a heavy loss.<br>
<br>
The numbers look a lot better as the installed price/kWe comes down.
There probably wouldn't be large learning curve savings on the engines
so the potential drop is in the gasifier price as more get built. The
other potential drop is in the annual O&M. This should come down as
the gasifiers improve<br>
<br>
Cheers<br>
<br>
David<br>
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