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On 4/4/2014 6:08 AM, thomas reed wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote
cite="mid:CAFCw1ss=1XVv2ZpZ1-8Gs6xkw7E6BDGr1ZA+sy21U_mxTiqTOw@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">Steve
<div><br>
</div>
<div>I have been working in Biomass Energy for a few decades.
Here's a note I wrote myself yesterday:</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><><><></div>
<div>
<div>FRACKED FUTURE PLANS</div>
<div>
<br>
</div>
<div>Human energy, mental and physical, has enabled us to rise
far above our physical limitations and to have a high standard
of living compared to our Cro-Magnon ancestors, 100.000 years
ago. (He also masterminded taking 6,000 Danish Jews to
Sweden, just before the Festapo came to round them up.)</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>One of my specialties has long been gasification of Biomass
as an alternative to petroleum. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>My grandparents enjoyed the first wave of fossil fuel
energy in the form of Producer Gas, made by partial oxidation
of coal to CO, H2 and CH4. My early Mentor, Harry LaFontaine
in Denmark, manufactured biomass gasifiers for cars and trucks
for civilians while the military frittered away all the oil on
WARS.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>My Office mate at Shell Oil, M. King Hubbard, became famous
in his last years for predicting PEAK OIL in the US to occur
around year 2000, based on the drilled holes per year vs
producing wells per year. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>If this had occurred, the cost of gasoline/diesel would be
rising rapidly. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><><><></div>
<div> INSTEAD, the cost of gas/diesel may be dropping, but much
of current cost in the US is determined by taxes,
infrastructure etc, not the real cost of finding and producing
the oil, which is probably less than $1/bbl (44gal), 2c/gal!!
OIL IS NATURES GIFT TO HUMANS!</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><><><></div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>INSTEAD, Hydraulic FRACKING has emerged to increase
supplies of oil. and gas. Previous extraction relied on
drilling a vertical hole into a horizontal oil strata, and
collecting as much oil as could flow naturally to the center.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>FRACKING depends on horizontal drilling at the bottom of
old wells, followed by pressurized injection of materials
that prop up the oil bearing strata, allowing old oil to flow
freely to the old wells and new wells. This technology could
more than double the age of oil.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Gasification can't compete for the foreseeable future. The
world will be bathed in cheap oil and gas for the next
century! I give up on gasification.</div>
<div><><><></div>
<div>
<br>
</div>
<div>WoodGas stoves are still a possible option in deepest
Africa. Dean Still is taking care of that!</div>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><><><></div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>COMMENTS? </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Tom Reed<br>
<br>
</div>
</blockquote>
Hi Tom,<br>
<br>
This makes assumptions about a relatively smooth linear progress of
our current global economy and its supporting infrastructure. If
this is the case you are probably right, and if you are working in
this field for financial returns, they are unlikely to be found in
other than in nitche markets.<br>
<br>
However, there are several reason to think these assumptions are
unlikely. <br>
<br>
The global infrastructure has become so complex and interdependent
that a variety of failures, natural or orchestrated, could cause
cascading catastrophic failures that could take a long time to
repair. The probability of this increases as complexity and
interdependence of infrasttructure elements increases. <br>
<br>
The economic problems in the developed world are unlikely to find
smooth solutions. There doesn't seem to be the willpower to
implement long term solutions that are painful in the short run. <br>
<br>
Either of these problems could result in wars or simply damage to
the infrasturcture that disrupts the delivery of energy locally.
The localities may include much of the world.<br>
<br>
In either of these cases local energy solutions may be very needed.
<br>
<br>
Concerns for the welfare of your children and grandchildren could be
an adequate motivation for working in this field if you can without
expecting large financial returns.<br>
<br>
Regards,<br>
Craig<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote
cite="mid:CAFCw1ss=1XVv2ZpZ1-8Gs6xkw7E6BDGr1ZA+sy21U_mxTiqTOw@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
<div>On Thursday, April 3, 2014, Steven Barber (RIT Student) <<a
moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:stb4703@rit.edu">stb4703@rit.edu</a>>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0
.8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>Hi Tom,<br>
<br>
</div>
I've been doing some research on the price of commodities
for several years now. Since global producers of oil can
quickly ramp up (or down) production to meet any level of
current demand, we can essentially take out supply and
demand out of the equation (except for the very short term
refinery explosion, Nigerian coup, etc.). Since oil is
priced in dollars, the relative value of the dollar itself
determines the price of oil. More value, less dollars needed
to buy, less value, more dollars needed to buy. For stable
oil prices, we simply need a steady or slightly increasing
value of the dollar.<br>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="gmail_extra"><br>
</div>
<div class="gmail_extra">Regards,<br>
</div>
<div class="gmail_extra">-Steve<br>
</div>
<div class="gmail_extra"><br>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Wed, Apr 2, 2014 at 9:41
PM, thomas reed <span dir="ltr"><<a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','tombreed2009@gmail.com');"
target="_blank">tombreed2009@gmail.com</a>></span>
wrote: <br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px
0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Long term, I believe that FRACKING will
make oil prices stable, so don't count on oil
increasing in price. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>COMMENTS?</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Tom Reed<br>
</div>
<br>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br>
-- <br>
<div dir="ltr">Steven T. Barber<br>
MS Finance '12<br>
PhD Sustainability Student<br>
Golisano Institute for Sustainability<br>
Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT)<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true" value="+15855821574"><font
color="#0066cc">585-582-1574</font></a> -
Office<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true" value="+15853708598"><font
color="#0066cc">585-370-8598</font></a> - Cell</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br>
<br>
-- <br>
NOTE: PLEASE CHANGE MY ADDRESS TO <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:TOMBREED2010@GMAIL.COM">TOMBREED2010@GMAIL.COM</a><br>
<br>
Dr. Thomas B. Reed<br>
The Biomass Energy Foundation<br>
BEF, BEC, BER<br>
<br>
<br>
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