<div dir="ltr"><div><div><div>Steve & Tom,<br><br></div>can I suggest you take a look at "The Seneca Effect", and then compare that to a world population graph. The most detailed graph I used to use has disappeared from the Internet but if you look closely you will see an inflection point at about 1961. Since then the RATE of growth has been in decline, we are in a peaking trend.<br>
<br></div>Since energy underwrites all our activity, including our reproduction rate, I would suggest a more useful term to use when describing energy is EROEI. The term I (perhaps originally) have coined is "Peak EROEI", which was that 1961 date.<br>
<br>I believe the EROEI on wood is excellent and have seen one graph for the US that puts it only just behind domestic coal.<br><br></div><div>Two country's that have recently turned from net exporters to net importers of energy are Egypt and Syria. The UK was in 2004 and Mexico is pending. I haven't checked Ukraine yet.<br>
</div><div><br></div><div>To me it also seems no accident that the money supply was disconnected from a commodity by Nixon.<br></div><div><br></div>Regards<br><br>Jason Stewart<br></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><br><div class="gmail_quote">
On Sat, Apr 5, 2014 at 2:08 AM, thomas reed <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:tombreed2009@gmail.com" target="_blank">tombreed2009@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
Steve<div><br></div><div>I have been working in Biomass Energy for a few decades. Here's a note I wrote myself yesterday:</div><div><br></div><div><><><></div><div><div>FRACKED FUTURE PLANS</div><div>
<br></div><div>Human energy, mental and physical, has enabled us to rise far above our physical limitations and to have a high standard of living compared to our Cro-Magnon ancestors, 100.000 years ago. (He also masterminded taking 6,000 Danish Jews to Sweden, just before the Festapo came to round them up.)</div>
<div><br></div><div>One of my specialties has long been gasification of Biomass as an alternative to petroleum. </div><div><br></div><div>My grandparents enjoyed the first wave of fossil fuel energy in the form of Producer Gas, made by partial oxidation of coal to CO, H2 and CH4. My early Mentor, Harry LaFontaine in Denmark, manufactured biomass gasifiers for cars and trucks for civilians while the military frittered away all the oil on WARS.</div>
<div><br></div><div>My Office mate at Shell Oil, M. King Hubbard, became famous in his last years for predicting PEAK OIL in the US to occur around year 2000, based on the drilled holes per year vs producing wells per year. </div>
<div><br></div><div>If this had occurred, the cost of gasoline/diesel would be rising rapidly. </div><div><br></div><div><><><></div><div> INSTEAD, the cost of gas/diesel may be dropping, but much of current cost in the US is determined by taxes, infrastructure etc, not the real cost of finding and producing the oil, which is probably less than $1/bbl (44gal), 2c/gal!! OIL IS NATURES GIFT TO HUMANS!</div>
<div><br></div><div><><><></div><div><br></div><div>INSTEAD, Hydraulic FRACKING has emerged to increase supplies of oil. and gas. Previous extraction relied on drilling a vertical hole into a horizontal oil strata, and collecting as much oil as could flow naturally to the center.</div>
<div><br></div><div>FRACKING depends on horizontal drilling at the bottom of old wells, followed by pressurized injection of materials that prop up the oil bearing strata, allowing old oil to flow freely to the old wells and new wells. This technology could more than double the age of oil.</div>
<div><br></div><div>Gasification can't compete for the foreseeable future. The world will be bathed in cheap oil and gas for the next century! I give up on gasification.</div><div><><><></div><div>
<br></div><div>WoodGas stoves are still a possible option in deepest Africa. Dean Still is taking care of that!</div></div><div><br></div><div><><><></div><div><br></div><div>COMMENTS? </div><div><br>
</div>
<div>Tom Reed<br><br>On Thursday, April 3, 2014, Steven Barber (RIT Student) <<a href="mailto:stb4703@rit.edu" target="_blank">stb4703@rit.edu</a>> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr"><div>Hi Tom,<br><br></div>I've been doing some research on the price of commodities for several years now. Since global producers of oil can quickly ramp up (or down) production to meet any level of current demand, we can essentially take out supply and demand out of the equation (except for the very short term refinery explosion, Nigerian coup, etc.). Since oil is priced in dollars, the relative value of the dollar itself determines the price of oil. More value, less dollars needed to buy, less value, more dollars needed to buy. For stable oil prices, we simply need a steady or slightly increasing value of the dollar.<br>
<div><div><div><div class="gmail_extra"><br></div><div class="gmail_extra">Regards,<br></div><div class="gmail_extra">-Steve<br></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Wed, Apr 2, 2014 at 9:41 PM, thomas reed <span dir="ltr"><<a>tombreed2009@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote: <br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div><br></div><div>Long term, I believe that FRACKING will make oil prices stable, so don't count on oil increasing in price. </div>
<div><br></div><div>COMMENTS?</div><div><br></div><div>Tom Reed<br></div><br></blockquote></div><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><br>-- <br><div dir="ltr">Steven T. Barber<br>MS Finance '12<br>PhD Sustainability Student<br>
Golisano Institute for Sustainability<br>
Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT)<br><a value="+15855821574"><font color="#0066cc">585-582-1574</font></a> - Office<br><a value="+15853708598"><font color="#0066cc">585-370-8598</font></a> - Cell</div>
</font></span></div></div></div></div></div><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">
</font></span></blockquote></div><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><br><br>-- <br>NOTE: PLEASE CHANGE MY ADDRESS TO <a href="mailto:TOMBREED2010@GMAIL.COM" target="_blank">TOMBREED2010@GMAIL.COM</a><br><br>Dr. Thomas B. Reed<br>
The Biomass Energy Foundation<br>BEF, BEC, BER<br><br>
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