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<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Jason ...
“so you start by shooting for the
sky then work backwards” is the correct course, except one has to know
exactly
what’s in the sky (atmosphere) first before setting goals and targets.
The
Urban Green Council report is based on the goal of a CO2 atmospheric
concentration
of less than 450ppm, citing a paper by climate scientist James Hansen
and an outdated
IPCC 2007 Report. Problem is that James Hansen, a pioneer of climate
science, has
been on record since 2008 that CO2 will need to be reduced to 350ppm,
and
likely less than that. Hansen states (</span><span
style="background: white none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; color: black; -moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous;">Target
Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity
Aim?, <i>The Open Atmospheric Science Journal,<span
class="apple-converted-space"> </span>2,<span
class="apple-converted-space"> </span></i><span
style="float: none; word-spacing: 0px;">1, 217-231, 2008) that i</span><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">f an
overshoot of a 350ppm
CO2 target is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible
catastrophic
effects. How brief? If the world continues on a business-as-usual path
for even
another decade (from 2008), prospects for avoiding a dangerously large,
extended overshoot of the 350 ppm level will be dim. A CO2 amount of
450 ppm or
larger, if long maintained, would push Earth toward an ice-free state.
As of
Feb. 2013, atmospheric concentration is 397ppm.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Therefore,
amazingly enough, a 90% GHG emission reduction
by 2050 is a recipe for risking irreversible catastrophic change, as
2050 will
likely be far too late.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Why? <span
style=""> </span>Because <span
style="background: white none repeat scroll 0% 0%; color: black; -moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous;">GHG
concentrations only decrease when global emissions are less than the
rate of the planet’s capacity for sequestration (removal). <span
style=""> </span>Currently, there are about 9.1 billion metric
tons of global CO2 emissions per year, with a global capacity for
sequestration
(by oceans, plants and soils) of about 5 billion metric tons per year.<span
style=""> </span>So about 4.1 billion metric tons are added
each year to the atmosphere, with no place to go, thus increasing the
current concentration
to 397ppm. As a matter of fact, 25% </span>of CO2 emissions stays in
the atmosphere
for several centuries. So merely reducing emissions is not a solution.
Even
zero emissions is no longer a viable solution to reach 350ppm, as we
have to remove
more atmospheric CO2 than emissions to have any effect on CO2
concentrations. <span
style="background: white none repeat scroll 0% 0%; color: black; -moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous;">An
</span><span style="color: black;">immediate
cut of around 60 to 70% globally<span
style="background: white none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous;">
and continued
further cuts over time will </span><em><span
style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-style: normal;">merely
to stabilize atmospheric
concentrations</span></em><span class="apple-converted-space"><span
style="text-align: start; float: none; word-spacing: 0px;"> </span>of
CO2<i style="">, </i>and that would still leave us with a
radiative imbalance that would lead to <em><span
style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-style: normal;">an
additional 0.3 to 0.8ºC warming</span></em><span
class="apple-converted-space"><i style=""><span
style="text-align: start; float: none; word-spacing: 0px;"> </span></i></span>over
the
21st Century, <span
style="background: white none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous;">that
assumes no major carbon
cycle feedbacks kick in, which is </span></span><a
href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/02/17/207552/nsidc-thawing-permafrost-will-turn-from-carbon-sink-to-source-in-mid-2020s-releasing-100-billion-tons-of-carbon-by-2100/"><span
style="background: white none repeat scroll 0% 0%; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; text-decoration: none;">highly
unlikely</span></a><span
style="background: white none repeat scroll 0% 0%; color: black; -moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous;"><span
style="text-align: start; float: none; word-spacing: 0px;">.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span
style="background: white none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; color: black; -moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span
style="background: white none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; color: black; -moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous;">The
prescribed
energy retrofits of the Urban Green Council should be seen as
mitigative
measures only, and need to be coupled with adaptive measures for NYC in
terms
of forthcoming climate change and associated impacts.<br>
</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><font
face="Arial"><br>
<small>Mike Iversen</small></font><br>
<span
style="background: white none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; color: black; -moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<br>
On 3/20/2013 1:13 PM, Jason Holstine wrote:
<blockquote cite="mid:CD6F747F.2B5B4%25jason@amicusgreen.com"
type="cite">
<title>Re: [Greenbuilding] NYC 90% emissions cut with windows</title>
<font face="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><span
style="font-size: 11pt;">I betcha they welcome such an analytical
critique and conversation.<br>
<br>
It’s a big problem, so you start by shooting for the sky then work
backwards ... identify gaps, holes and weaknesses, then work to
address, plug and fix them so they can become strengths and
opportunities, and if you end up with a 40, 50 or 70% GHG redux, I’m
pretty sure you’ve done a helluva more than any other urban center. And
in so doing, creating knowledge bases and economies of scale to
redefine what’s possible elsewhere in the economy.<br>
<br>
Bloomberg hasn’t been shy about tackling large social ills, for good
and for bad. Fundamentally we need that to break citizens and consumers
out of really bad ignorance that negatively impacts the macro level.<br>
<br>
<br>
On 3/20/13 12:53 PM, "Michael Iversen" <<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="miversen@uic.edu">miversen@uic.edu</a>> wrote:<br>
<br>
</span></font>
<blockquote><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><font face="Arial">I
reviewed the ’90 by 50’ report, and its conclusions are based on
invalid assumptions, extrapolations and projections placed outside the
context of reality in terms of economic and social behavior. Basically,
the report concludes that IF ALL buildings in NYC were retrofitted or
designed with rigorous energy measures, and IF ALL buildings were
equipped with rooftop photovoltaic systems, and IF ALL source energy
was carbon-free electricity, then a 90 percent reduction in building
sector-related GHG emissions is possible by 2050.<br>
<br>
<b>Report Assumption 1</b>: All building stock is assumed to be
retrofitted / designed with existing and near-term efficiency
technologies, specifically; air sealing, heat recovery ventilation, and
additional insulation, to a point where all heating, cooling, and hot
water can be provided by electric heat pumps. Capital outlays are
estimated at a discounted net present value $94 billion.<br>
<br>
-</font></span><font size="1"><font
face="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span></font></font><font face="Arial"><span
style="font-size: 11pt;"><i>Comment</i>: While energy retrofitting of
existing building stock is a valid strategy to reduce GHG, the
projection of findings based on perfect model simulations for each
building type to the entire building stock is extremely unrealistic, in
terms of financial costs and building ownership / management behavior.
The $94 billion costs need to be placed in the context of local, state,
and federal economic deficits. The report needs to project the extent
of retrofitting based on historic data, not unrealistic goals.<br>
<br>
<b>Report Assumption 2</b>: All remaining building loads to be
carbon-free electricity. After reducing total building energy use by 50
to 60 percent, all remaining building energy in 2050 (50.6 TWh) is to
be supplied by carbon-free electricity, in order to meet the 90 percent
reduction target.<br>
<br>
Photovoltaic arrays may be added to every single building in NYC
(covering up to 60 percent of the available rooftop area), so as to
provide 10.7 TWh.<br>
<br>
The report enumerates potential sources of adequate carbon-free
electricity, but states that a detailed analysis is beyond the scope of
this study. Besides the previously mentioned electricity from
photovoltaics (10.7 TWh), the remaining 39.9 TWh are to be provided a)
2,600 4.0MW wind turbines, occupying 35 to 40 square miles, b) an
additional 86 million square meters of photovoltaic panels with a
footprint of 66 square miles, c) 3 or 4 new 1000 MW nuclear power
plants, d) increased hydropower from Quebec, and e) electricity
generation from biogas derived from waste and sewage treatment.<br>
<br>
-</span></font><font size="1"><font
face="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span></font></font><font face="Arial"><span
style="font-size: 11pt;"><i>Comment:</i> To assume 100% of buildings
will be retrofitted with pv arrays covering 60% of roof area is an
unsubstantiated overestimate, and does not factor building structural
capacity, financial capacity, and social behavior of private building
ownership / management.<br>
<br>
-</span></font><font size="1"><font
face="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span></font></font><font face="Arial"><span
style="font-size: 11pt;"><i>Comment:</i> To simply assume that 39.9 –
50.6 (TWh) of source energy is to carbon free is equivalent to saying
it will be provided by magic beans. Any proposed strategy would be
valid of all remaining source energy would be carbon free.<br>
<br>
<b>Summary</b>: if anything, this report points to how difficult it
is to achieve a 90 percent reduction of GHG emissions related to the
building sector by 2050. While some of the data findings were of value
and interest, any interpretation of findings, unless grounded in the
relatity of economic and social behavior, will provide only false
conclusions.<br>
<br>
I welcome other viewpoints on this study.<br>
<br>
Michael Iversen<br>
Architect, LEED AP, PhD Candidate<br>
Department of Urban Planning and Policy <br>
University of Illinois at Chicago<br>
</span></font><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><font
face="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><br>
</font></span>
<blockquote><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><font
face="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"> </font></span><br>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<br>
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