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<![endif]--><small><font
face="Arial">I reviewed the ’90 by 50’ report, and its conclusions are
based on invalid assumptions, extrapolations and projections placed
outside the
context of reality in terms of economic and social behavior. Basically,
the
report concludes that IF ALL buildings in NYC were retrofitted or
designed with
rigorous energy measures, and IF ALL buildings were equipped with
rooftop photovoltaic
systems, and IF ALL source energy was carbon-free electricity, then a
90
percent reduction in building sector-related GHG emissions is possible
by 2050.<br>
<br>
</font><font face="Arial"><b>Report Assumption 1</b>: All building
stock is assumed to be retrofitted
/ designed with existing and near-term efficiency technologies,
specifically; air
sealing, heat recovery ventilation, and additional insulation, to a
point where
all heating, cooling, and hot water can be provided by electric heat
pumps. Capital
outlays are estimated at a discounted net present value $94 billion.<br>
<br>
</font><font face="Arial"><span style=""><span style="">-<span
style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none;">
</span></span></span><i>Comment</i>: While energy retrofitting of
existing
building stock is a valid strategy to reduce GHG, the projection of
findings based
on perfect model simulations for each building type to the entire
building
stock is extremely unrealistic, in terms of financial costs and
building ownership
/ management behavior. The $94 billion costs need to be placed in the
context
of local, state, and federal economic deficits. The report needs to
project the
extent of retrofitting based on historic data, not unrealistic goals.<br>
<br>
</font><font face="Arial"><b>Report Assumption 2</b>: All remaining
building loads to be carbon-free
electricity. After reducing total building energy use by 50 to 60
percent, all remaining
building energy in 2050 (50.6 TWh) is to be supplied by carbon-free
electricity,
in order to meet the 90 percent reduction target.<br>
<br>
</font><font face="Arial">Photovoltaic arrays may be added to every
single building in
NYC (covering up to 60 percent of the available rooftop area), so as to
provide
10.7 TWh.<br>
<br>
</font><font face="Arial">The report enumerates potential sources of
adequate
carbon-free electricity, but states that a detailed analysis is beyond
the
scope of this study. Besides the previously mentioned electricity from
photovoltaics (10.7 TWh), the remaining 39.9 TWh are to be provided a)
2,600
4.0MW wind turbines, occupying 35 to 40 square miles, b) an additional
86
million square meters of photovoltaic panels with a footprint of 66
square
miles, c) 3 or 4 new 1000 MW nuclear power plants, d) increased
hydropower from
Quebec, and e) electricity generation from biogas derived from waste
and sewage
treatment.<br>
<br>
</font><font face="Arial"><span style=""><span style="">-<span
style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none;">
</span></span></span><i>Comment:</i> To assume 100% of buildings will
be
retrofitted with pv arrays covering 60% of roof area is an
unsubstantiated overestimate,
and does not factor building structural capacity, financial capacity,
and social
behavior of private building ownership / management.<br>
<br>
</font><font face="Arial"><span style=""><span style="">-<span
style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none;">
</span></span></span><i>Comment:</i> To simply assume that 39.9 – 50.6
(TWh)
of source energy is to carbon free is equivalent to saying it will be
provided
by magic beans. Any proposed strategy would be valid of all remaining
source
energy would be carbon free.<br>
</font><font face="Arial"><br>
<b>Summary</b>: if anything, this report points to how difficult it is
to achieve a 90 percent reduction of GHG emissions related to the
building sector by 2050. While some of the data findings were of value
and interest, any interpretation of findings, unless grounded in the
relatity of economic and social behavior, will provide only false
conclusions.<br>
<br>
I welcome other viewpoints on this study.<br>
<br>
Michael Iversen<br>
Architect, LEED AP, PhD Candidate<br>
Department of Urban Planning and Policy <br>
University of Illinois at Chicago<br>
</font></small>
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