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<TITLE>Re: [Greenbuilding] NYC 90% emissions cut with windows</TITLE>
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<FONT FACE="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><SPAN STYLE='font-size:11pt'>I betcha they welcome such an analytical critique and conversation.<BR>
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It’s a big problem, so you start by shooting for the sky then work backwards ... identify gaps, holes and weaknesses, then work to address, plug and fix them so they can become strengths and opportunities, and if you end up with a 40, 50 or 70% GHG redux, I’m pretty sure you’ve done a helluva more than any other urban center. And in so doing, creating knowledge bases and economies of scale to redefine what’s possible elsewhere in the economy.<BR>
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Bloomberg hasn’t been shy about tackling large social ills, for good and for bad. Fundamentally we need that to break citizens and consumers out of really bad ignorance that negatively impacts the macro level.<BR>
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On 3/20/13 12:53 PM, "Michael Iversen" <<a href="miversen@uic.edu">miversen@uic.edu</a>> wrote:<BR>
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</SPAN></FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><SPAN STYLE='font-size:11pt'><FONT FACE="Arial">I reviewed the ’90 by 50’ report, and its conclusions are based on invalid assumptions, extrapolations and projections placed outside the context of reality in terms of economic and social behavior. Basically, the report concludes that IF ALL buildings in NYC were retrofitted or designed with rigorous energy measures, and IF ALL buildings were equipped with rooftop photovoltaic systems, and IF ALL source energy was carbon-free electricity, then a 90 percent reduction in building sector-related GHG emissions is possible by 2050.<BR>
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<B>Report Assumption 1</B>: All building stock is assumed to be retrofitted / designed with existing and near-term efficiency technologies, specifically; air sealing, heat recovery ventilation, and additional insulation, to a point where all heating, cooling, and hot water can be provided by electric heat pumps. Capital outlays are estimated at a discounted net present value $94 billion.<BR>
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-</FONT></SPAN><FONT SIZE="1"><FONT FACE="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><SPAN STYLE='font-size:7pt'> </SPAN></FONT></FONT><FONT FACE="Arial"><SPAN STYLE='font-size:11pt'><I>Comment</I>: While energy retrofitting of existing building stock is a valid strategy to reduce GHG, the projection of findings based on perfect model simulations for each building type to the entire building stock is extremely unrealistic, in terms of financial costs and building ownership / management behavior. The $94 billion costs need to be placed in the context of local, state, and federal economic deficits. The report needs to project the extent of retrofitting based on historic data, not unrealistic goals.<BR>
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<B>Report Assumption 2</B>: All remaining building loads to be carbon-free electricity. After reducing total building energy use by 50 to 60 percent, all remaining building energy in 2050 (50.6 TWh) is to be supplied by carbon-free electricity, in order to meet the 90 percent reduction target.<BR>
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Photovoltaic arrays may be added to every single building in NYC (covering up to 60 percent of the available rooftop area), so as to provide 10.7 TWh.<BR>
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The report enumerates potential sources of adequate carbon-free electricity, but states that a detailed analysis is beyond the scope of this study. Besides the previously mentioned electricity from photovoltaics (10.7 TWh), the remaining 39.9 TWh are to be provided a) 2,600 4.0MW wind turbines, occupying 35 to 40 square miles, b) an additional 86 million square meters of photovoltaic panels with a footprint of 66 square miles, c) 3 or 4 new 1000 MW nuclear power plants, d) increased hydropower from Quebec, and e) electricity generation from biogas derived from waste and sewage treatment.<BR>
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-</SPAN></FONT><FONT SIZE="1"><FONT FACE="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><SPAN STYLE='font-size:7pt'> </SPAN></FONT></FONT><FONT FACE="Arial"><SPAN STYLE='font-size:11pt'><I>Comment:</I> To assume 100% of buildings will be retrofitted with pv arrays covering 60% of roof area is an unsubstantiated overestimate, and does not factor building structural capacity, financial capacity, and social behavior of private building ownership / management.<BR>
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-</SPAN></FONT><FONT SIZE="1"><FONT FACE="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><SPAN STYLE='font-size:7pt'> </SPAN></FONT></FONT><FONT FACE="Arial"><SPAN STYLE='font-size:11pt'><I>Comment:</I> To simply assume that 39.9 – 50.6 (TWh) of source energy is to carbon free is equivalent to saying it will be provided by magic beans. Any proposed strategy would be valid of all remaining source energy would be carbon free.<BR>
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<B>Summary</B>: if anything, this report points to how difficult it is to achieve a 90 percent reduction of GHG emissions related to the building sector by 2050. While some of the data findings were of value and interest, any interpretation of findings, unless grounded in the relatity of economic and social behavior, will provide only false conclusions.<BR>
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I welcome other viewpoints on this study.<BR>
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Michael Iversen<BR>
Architect, LEED AP, PhD Candidate<BR>
Department of Urban Planning and Policy <BR>
University of Illinois at Chicago<BR>
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