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<font face="Arial"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">David ...
this is
not a research paper published by a peer-reviewed journal, nor was it
written as
such. It is a self-described “study” by an advocacy non-profit
organization. I
view it more as a position paper from a demonstration study.<o:p></o:p></span><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></font>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Rather
than a hypothesis / research question, the study
is based on advocating a policy goal for reducing New York City’s
greenhouse
gas emissions by 90 percent by 2050. As I have previously noted, the
study’s
stated target of a CO2 atmospheric</span><font face="Arial"><span
class="A3"><span class="A7"><span
style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"> </span></span><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><span
style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">concentration less than
450ppm is in
conflict with the goal of its cited reference to James Hansen’s paper
of 350ppm,
both stated in the opening paragraphs of the study. As any policy is
defined by
the CO2 concentration target, I am concerned that the report claims a
scientific basis while at the same time selecting a contradictory and
more permissive
CO2 target.</span><o:p> <br>
</o:p></span></span></font></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"
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face="Arial"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Its
conclusions are based on modeling that
demonstrates that by 2050 New York City could reduce its greenhouse gas
emissions more than 90 percent from 2010 levels through a combination
of
existing and near-term efficiency technologies and shifting all
remaining
building loads to carbon-free electricity. In other words, it works
backwards
from it stated goal to find the conditions favorable to the findings
needed to
demonstrate the goal may be achieved. This is not research, nor it is
problem-solving.<br>
</span><o:p> <br>
</o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><font
face="Arial"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">To try
to make the distinction between assumption and conditions as if this
was a
scientific research paper is missing the entire point, as the study
itself does
not bother with this these distinctions. What is clear, is that the
study is
based on <i style="">conditions</i> which include
underlying <i style="">assumptions</i>, which result
in certain conclusions which I brought to question. Any given condition
needs
to be valid and feasible onto itself. It was the underlying assumptions
of the
given conditions which I brought to question.<o:p> <br>
<br>
</o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><font
face="Arial"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">For
example, the <i style="">given condition</i> that energy
consumption in the building sector may be reduced by 50-60% by 2050 is
based on
the <i style="">scaling-up assumption</i> that all existing
buildings have the ability and capacity to achieve deep building
retrofits including
the listed energy efficiency technologies. Obviously, any assumption of
implementation
achievability should be substantiated, and provided in terms of
scenarios of
likliehood. Simply assuming 100% implementation achievability of a deep
retrofit scaling-up of the entire building sector without providing
substantiation
is not acceptable, and will only result in invalid conclusions.<o:p> <br>
<br>
</o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><font
face="Arial"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The
same applies to the underlying scaling-up assumptions of 100%
achievability for
the stated conditions of rooftop photovoltaics on all buildings, and
that all
remaining building loads (39-50 TWh) to be carbon-free electricity.<o:p>
<br>
<br>
</o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><font
face="Arial"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">You are
correct in that there are plenty of caveats throughout the paper
regarding the
scope and limitations of the study. For the most part, the front end
inventory
and analysis of the NYC building sector appears valid and of great
value. My
concern is that despite the caveats and limited nature of the study,
the paper presented
findings and conclusions that went far beyond the substantiation of its
analysis. And therefore, it mispresented itself by providing an invalid
message
on a very important subject, knowing that this message will be
cherry-picked by
the media that only reads the paper’s abstract and conclusions.<o:p> <br>
<br>
</o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><font
face="Arial"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">In
order to achieve informed policymaking in our society of limited
resources and a
market-based economic system, it is imperative we define the problem
correctly the
first time by asking the right questions now. Continuing to define
problems
that are not grounded in the reality of a socio-economic context, will
not only
lead to false paths, but waste the little time to solve the problems at
hand.</span><br>
<br>
</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><font
face="Arial"><small>Michael Iversen</small><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Arial"><br>
</font><br>
On 3/20/2013 9:39 PM, David Bergman wrote:
<blockquote cite="mid:8E.CD.27807.5F27A415@hrndva-omtalb.mail.rr.com"
type="cite">In response to Michael Iversen's post:<br>
<br>
The report clearly does NOT make those assumptions. They state that
they
are the <u>conditions</u> upon which the reduction <u>could</u> occur
and
then establishes them as goals. This is supported by your own
underscoring of the word "if" in your statements.<br>
<br>
"...in determining the feasibility of this goal, we have focused on
what is <br>
physically possible with presently available and reasonably <br>
foreseeable technology. We did not restrict our analysis by <br>
current political constraints, and gave only moderate attention <br>
to economic constraints."<br>
<br>
"And, of course, many issues will arise when the political and <br>
economic aspects of such a project are investigated in greater <br>
depth, issues that we have purposely avoided, but that must <br>
be addressed in the near future."<br>
<br>
Thus they clearly acknowledge the issues, serving up the report's
detailed and substantiated conclusions as a method of (sorely needed)
advocacy. See also the rest of the "Next Steps" section on page
5 of the report.<br>
<br>
I also disagree that the outlays "<font size="2">need to be placed in
the context of local, state, and federal economic deficits." First,
most of the costs would not be government expenditures since most of
the
retrofits would take place in non-governmental buildings. If anything,
the expenditures would help reduce deficits and stabilize the economy
by
encouraging private spending and creating new jobs and taxable income.
Second, their figures state the undertaking is cost neutral (an
estimate,
by the way, that I believe does not include savings from reduced
externalities, meaning their estimated savings are extremely
conservative). <br>
<br>
</font>As to the "unrealistic" aspect of the report's
conclusions, the alternative to the unrealistic here is, at best, a
highly uncertain and very costly future, and, at worst, a massive die
off
of the human species. That choice makes the seemingly unrealistic a
whole
lot more appealing.<br>
<br>
I fail to understand why members of this group would find disagreement
with solid research pointing the way toward potentially feasible --
perhaps even realistic when viewed in the above context -- courses of
action.<br>
<br>
David Bergman RA LEED AP<br>
<font color="#808080" size="2"><b>DAVID BERGMAN</b> ARCHITECT | <b>FIRE
&
WATER</b> LIGHTING<br>
</font><font color="#808080">architecture . interiors .
</font><font color="#008080">ecodesign</font><font color="#808080"> .
lighting . furniture<br>
</font><font color="#808080" size="2"><a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:bergman@cyberg.com">bergman@cyberg.com</a>
<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://www.cyberg.com/"
eudora="autourl"><u>www.cyberg.com</u></a>
</font><font color="#808080"> <br>
</font><font color="#808080" size="2">212 475 3106 twitter:
@EcoOptimism<br>
<br>
</font><font color="#808080">author -
<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://ecooptimism.com/?page_id=58">Sustainable
Design: A
Critical Guide</a><br>
blog - <a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://www.ecooptimism.com/">EcoOptimism</a><br>
adjunct faculty - Parsons The New School for Design</font> <br>
<br>
At 12:53 PM 3/20/2013, Michael Iversen wrote:<br>
<blockquote type="cite" class="cite" cite=""><font size="2">I
reviewed the ’90
by 50’ report, and its conclusions are based on invalid assumptions,
extrapolations and projections placed outside the context of reality in
terms of economic and social behavior. Basically, the report concludes
that IF ALL buildings in NYC were retrofitted or designed with rigorous
energy measures, and IF ALL buildings were equipped with rooftop
photovoltaic systems, and IF ALL source energy was carbon-free
electricity, then a 90 percent reduction in building sector-related GHG
emissions is possible by 2050.<br>
<br>
<b>Report Assumption 1</b>: All building stock is assumed to be
retrofitted / designed with existing and near-term efficiency
technologies, specifically; air sealing, heat recovery ventilation, and
additional insulation, to a point where all heating, cooling, and hot
water can be provided by electric heat pumps. Capital outlays are
estimated at a discounted net present value $94 billion.<br>
<br>
- <i>Comment</i>: While energy retrofitting of existing building stock
is
a valid strategy to reduce GHG, the projection of findings based on
perfect model simulations for each building type to the entire building
stock is extremely unrealistic, in terms of financial costs and
building
ownership / management behavior. The $94 billion costs need to be
placed
in the context of local, state, and federal economic deficits. The
report
needs to project the extent of retrofitting based on historic data, not
unrealistic goals.<br>
<br>
<b>Report Assumption 2</b>: All remaining building loads to be
carbon-free electricity. After reducing total building energy use by 50
to 60 percent, all remaining building energy in 2050 (50.6 TWh) is to
be
supplied by carbon-free electricity, in order to meet the 90 percent
reduction target.<br>
<br>
Photovoltaic arrays may be added to every single building in NYC
(covering up to 60 percent of the available rooftop area), so as to
provide 10.7 TWh.<br>
<br>
The report enumerates potential sources of adequate carbon-free
electricity, but states that a detailed analysis is beyond the scope of
this study. Besides the previously mentioned electricity from
photovoltaics (10.7 TWh), the remaining 39.9 TWh are to be provided a)
2,600 4.0MW wind turbines, occupying 35 to 40 square miles, b) an
additional 86 million square meters of photovoltaic panels with a
footprint of 66 square miles, c) 3 or 4 new 1000 MW nuclear power
plants,
d) increased hydropower from Quebec, and e) electricity generation from
biogas derived from waste and sewage treatment.<br>
<br>
- <i>Comment:</i> To assume 100% of buildings will be retrofitted with
pv
arrays covering 60% of roof area is an unsubstantiated overestimate,
and
does not factor building structural capacity, financial capacity, and
social behavior of private building ownership / management.<br>
<br>
- <i>Comment:</i> To simply assume that 39.9 – 50.6 (TWh) of source
energy is to carbon free is equivalent to saying it will be provided by
magic beans. Any proposed strategy would be valid of all remaining
source
energy would be carbon free.<br>
<br>
<b>Summary</b>: if anything, this report points to how difficult it
is to
achieve a 90 percent reduction of GHG emissions related to the building
sector by 2050. While some of the data findings were of value and
interest, any interpretation of findings, unless grounded in the
relatity
of economic and social behavior, will provide only false
conclusions.<br>
<br>
I welcome other viewpoints on this study.<br>
<br>
Michael Iversen<br>
Architect, LEED AP, PhD Candidate<br>
Department of Urban Planning and Policy <br>
University of Illinois at Chicago<br>
</font><br>
<blockquote type="cite" class="cite" cite=""><br>
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