<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Re: [Greenbuilding] NYC 90% emissions cut with windows</TITLE></HEAD>
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<DIV><FONT size=4>I am still working through this thread. </FONT></DIV>
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<DIV><FONT size=4>However, I think it is a good thing that some are projecting
best case scenario, even if it seems unlikely. It is more in the realm of
theoretically possible. However, that crash course of renovating every
building to the highest thermal efficiency standard and still maintain comfort
and quality of life is the vision we are looking for. </FONT></DIV>
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<DIV><FONT size=4>The construction industry has been so sluggish, because we
stopped expanding. Upgrading our existing infrastructure to near net zero
standards is what is most needed to find a sustainable possibility. This
needs to be the focus of our economy. Construction that is focused for
this purpose is the solution to many dilemmas. This emphasis should be the
growth sector of the economy. As an architect, I would feel much more
fulfilled by designing solutions over designing more decadence. My ability
to do so is limited by the clients who want to do so, also. </FONT></DIV>
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<DIV><FONT size=4>If our culture has a vision such as this one described, we can
find more who share our vision of living in peace with the environment.
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<DIV><FONT size=4>Eli </FONT></DIV>
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<DIV style="font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=jason@amicusgreen.com
href="mailto:jason@amicusgreen.com">Jason Holstine</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, March 20, 2013 2:13 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=Greenbuilding@lists.bioenergylists.org
href="mailto:Greenbuilding@lists.bioenergylists.org">Greenbuilding Listserv</A>
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<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [Greenbuilding] NYC 90% emissions cut with
windows</DIV></DIV></DIV>
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face="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">I betcha
they welcome such an analytical critique and conversation.<BR><BR>It’s a big
problem, so you start by shooting for the sky then work backwards ... identify
gaps, holes and weaknesses, then work to address, plug and fix them so they can
become strengths and opportunities, and if you end up with a 40, 50 or 70% GHG
redux, I’m pretty sure you’ve done a helluva more than any other urban center.
And in so doing, creating knowledge bases and economies of scale to redefine
what’s possible elsewhere in the economy.<BR><BR>Bloomberg hasn’t been shy about
tackling large social ills, for good and for bad. Fundamentally we need that to
break citizens and consumers out of really bad ignorance that negatively impacts
the macro level.<BR><BR><BR>On 3/20/13 12:53 PM, "Michael Iversen" <<A
href="wlmailhtml:miversen@uic.edu">wlmailhtml:miversen@uic.edu</A>>
wrote:<BR><BR></SPAN></FONT>
<BLOCKQUOTE><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt"><FONT face=Arial>I reviewed the ’90
by 50’ report, and its conclusions are based on invalid assumptions,
extrapolations and projections placed outside the context of reality in terms
of economic and social behavior. Basically, the report concludes that IF ALL
buildings in NYC were retrofitted or designed with rigorous energy measures,
and IF ALL buildings were equipped with rooftop photovoltaic systems, and IF
ALL source energy was carbon-free electricity, then a 90 percent reduction in
building sector-related GHG emissions is possible by 2050.<BR><BR><B>Report
Assumption 1</B>: All building stock is assumed to be retrofitted / designed
with existing and near-term efficiency technologies, specifically; air
sealing, heat recovery ventilation, and additional insulation, to a point
where all heating, cooling, and hot water can be provided by electric heat
pumps. Capital outlays are estimated at a discounted net present value $94
billion.<BR><BR>-</FONT></SPAN><FONT size=1><FONT
face="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 7pt">
</SPAN></FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt"><I>Comment</I>: While energy retrofitting of existing
building stock is a valid strategy to reduce GHG, the projection of findings
based on perfect model simulations for each building type to the entire
building stock is extremely unrealistic, in terms of financial costs and
building ownership / management behavior. The $94 billion costs need to be
placed in the context of local, state, and federal economic deficits. The
report needs to project the extent of retrofitting based on historic data, not
unrealistic goals.<BR><BR><B>Report Assumption 2</B>: All remaining building
loads to be carbon-free electricity. After reducing total building energy use
by 50 to 60 percent, all remaining building energy in 2050 (50.6 TWh) is to be
supplied by carbon-free electricity, in order to meet the 90 percent reduction
target.<BR><BR>Photovoltaic arrays may be added to every single building in
NYC (covering up to 60 percent of the available rooftop area), so as to
provide 10.7 TWh.<BR><BR>The report enumerates potential sources of adequate
carbon-free electricity, but states that a detailed analysis is beyond the
scope of this study. Besides the previously mentioned electricity from
photovoltaics (10.7 TWh), the remaining 39.9 TWh are to be provided a) 2,600
4.0MW wind turbines, occupying 35 to 40 square miles, b) an additional 86
million square meters of photovoltaic panels with a footprint of 66 square
miles, c) 3 or 4 new 1000 MW nuclear power plants, d) increased hydropower
from Quebec, and e) electricity generation from biogas derived from waste and
sewage treatment.<BR><BR>-</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=1><FONT
face="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 7pt">
</SPAN></FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt"><I>Comment:</I> To assume 100% of buildings will be
retrofitted with pv arrays covering 60% of roof area is an unsubstantiated
overestimate, and does not factor building structural capacity, financial
capacity, and social behavior of private building ownership /
management.<BR><BR>-</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=1><FONT
face="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 7pt">
</SPAN></FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt"><I>Comment:</I> To simply assume that 39.9 – 50.6
(TWh) of source energy is to carbon free is equivalent to saying it will be
provided by magic beans. Any proposed strategy would be valid of all remaining
source energy would be carbon free.<BR><BR><B>Summary</B>: if anything, this
report points to how difficult it is to achieve a 90 percent reduction of GHG
emissions related to the building sector by 2050. While some of the data
findings were of value and interest, any interpretation of findings, unless
grounded in the relatity of economic and social behavior, will provide only
false conclusions.<BR><BR>I welcome other viewpoints on this
study.<BR><BR>Michael Iversen<BR>Architect, LEED AP, PhD
Candidate<BR>Department of Urban Planning and Policy <BR>University of
Illinois at Chicago<BR></SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt"><FONT
face="Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial"><BR></FONT></SPAN>
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