[Stoves] interesting link
Kevin
kchisholm at ca.inter.net
Wed Jun 27 00:25:32 CDT 2012
Dear Ron
This thread started off being relevant to Stoves. Basically, it was relevant to Stove Design, Development and Marketing because the presence of "Climate Change Funding", and the availability of such funding could drive Stoves in a direction where attainment of Climate Change Funding was the variable being optimized, rather than making better stoves and finding better ways to get them to the End Users.
In doing further research after posting the e-mail below, I was appalled to find that the 97% figure quoted in www.skepticalscience.com that you referred the Stoves List to below as being an authoritative source for "Consensus is grossly deceitful, far worse than I suspected.
1: Were you aware of the article at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/21/gmu-on-climate-scientists-we-are-the-97/
or
2: the article on which it was based at
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/12/30/lawrence-solomon-75-climate-scientists-think-humans-contribute-to-global-warming/ ?
The sad story can be summed up in a quote from this latter URL:
" This number will prove a new embarrassment to the pundits and press who use it. The number stems from a 2009 online survey of 10,257 earth scientists, conducted by two researchers at the University of Illinois. The survey results must have deeply disappointed the researchers – in the end, they chose to highlight the views of a subgroup of just 77 scientists, 75 of whom thought humans contributed to climate change. The ratio 75/77 produces the 97% figure that pundits now tout. "
That is not even "Consensus Science"... that is sick, perverted, incompetent, outright deceit.
I would like to move this thread to the Biochar-policy list so that it doesn't waste the time of serious Stove Developers. The Stoves List does not benefit from crappy deception, the likes of which seems to abound in the
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus.htm site which you presently seem to hold in high regard.
Kevin Chisholm
----- Original Message -----
From: Kevin
To: Discussion of biomass cooking stoves
Sent: Tuesday, June 26, 2012 10:17 PM
Subject: Re: [Stoves] interesting link
Dear Ron
----- Original Message -----
From: rongretlarson at comcast.net
To: Discussion of biomass cooking stoves
Sent: Tuesday, June 26, 2012 4:46 PM
Subject: Re: [Stoves] interesting link
List:
Whew - My apologies (as the first coordinator of this list) for this sort of political-non-stove message.
# This is not a political message. It addresses the point raised by others on the Stoves List concerning carbon credit payments as a support toward financing the development and/or sale of stoves. Clearly, the presence of large "carbon credit payments" that would actually reach the Developer/Consumer Level would indeed have a benefit in increasing the number of appropriately improved stoves actually reaching the End User. If this is true, then the opposite is also true... no carbon credit payments will reduced penetration of the market for improved stoves. The point I am making is that any stove (or Biochar) related operation that is staking its future on the availability of significant carbon credit payments is building its venture on very shakey ground. Rather, the venture should provide improved products or services that will enable success on its own merits, and if carbon credits continue to be available, the venture could do even better and could be even more successful.
I should have overlooked the first one from the "Depot", maybe.
# I presume you are referring to www.climatedepot.com If so, then this seems to suggest that as a present "believer", you are not interested in seeing other opinions that might disrupt your present views.
I ask Kevin (again) to rebut (ie point out any single lie in) consensus material found at denier message #4 (out of >100) found at:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus.htm
# Where have you asked this of me previously? I have not seen such a request, and I have been following this thread carefully, looking for a reply to my posting of 6/23/2012 at 10:58 PM ADT, which I have not seen yet.
# At any rate, I will rebut a few lies at the above "Skeptical Site", as per your request. :-)
# 1Lie: Consensus Science is not science. It is simply opinion. To quote from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus ,
" Scientific consensus is not by itself a scientific argument, and it is not part of the scientific method "
#2 Lie: The www.skepticalscience.com site is sloppy and misleading, and as such, lacks credibility
The "Lead-in" to their "Denier Message #4" is the message:
" There is no consensus
The Petition Project features over 31,000 scientists signing the petition stating "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide will, in the forseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere ...". (Petition Project)"
The "Petition Project" contains the names of 31,487 American Scientists, of whom 9,029 are PhD's. ( Note: I accept what is said at http://www.petitionproject.org/ as being true, and have not counted the signatures or verified that there are the names of 9,029 PhD's on the list.) Skepticalscience (SS) then states:
" 97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming. "
Point a: The first question is: Who are the "Climate Experts" that SS is referring to? Is this just a number out of mid-air? Why are we to trust the opinion of nameless SS Scientists?
Point b: Are these Scientists on the payroll of the IPCC, or are they working on Grants that depend on their continued support of teh IPCC Position?
Point c: If 97% of "Climate Scientists" support the IPCC position, and 31, 487 American Scientists don't, dows this mean that there are 31, 478 / 3% = 1,049,267 American Scientists? :-) Of course not! SS "muddies the water" by quoting an unknown body of what they term "Climate Scientists" Clearly, Anthropologists, Geologists, Physicists, Chemists, Biologists, Engineers, Astronomers, etc can indeed have valid opinions and do competent science relating to "Climate Science" even though tehy were not formally trained as a "Climate Expert."
Point d: When we click on the "Intermediate Level of answers, we see:
" More specifically, around 95% of active climate researchers actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position. "
d:1 What happened to the "97%?
d:2 What happened to the "Climate Experts?"
They go on to say " A survey of 3146 earth scientists asked the question "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" (Doran 2009). More than 90% of participants had Ph.D.s, and 7% had master’s degrees. Overall, 82% of the scientists answered yes. "
d:3 Now we are down to 82%
Then they go on to say " Of scientists who were non-climatologists and didn't publish research, 77% answered yes. In contrast, 97.5% of climatologists who actively publish research on climate change responded yes. "
I recall from High School Algebra that if we have two unknowns, X = Number of Non-Climatologists, and Y= Number of Climatologists, we need two equations to sort out how many are in each camp. Correct me if I am wrong, but...
X + Y = 3,146..........................Equation 1
.77X + .975Y = .82 * 3,164......Equation 2
Please check my numerology, but what I get is
X = 1,840 Non-Climatologists
Y = 1,306 Climatologists
So, they are putting the opinions of 3,164 Scientists up against those of 31,478. That works out to 82% of their 3,146 " Scientists", 2,597, holding a "Consensus" that over-rules 31,478 other Scientists. Some "Consensus", wouldn't you say? But wait, it gets worse... 2,597/(31,478+ 2,597) = 7.62% of the Scientists involved in this Data Base SUPPORT the IPCC AGW Position, but 92.37% REJECT the IPCC AGW position. If the 31,478 American Scientists have such a low opinion of the IPCC, imagine how low the "support percentage" would be if the inputs from Scientists from other parts of the World were included.
# So, after analyzing the first few lines of the SS site, I am left with the conclusion that it is slipshod, unscientific, misleading, irresponsible, and devious, and accordingly, see no point in going further. Tricks like they employ give Science a bad name.
# So, now I ask you:
1:Have you actually visited the site posted by Ron H,
http://www.climatedepot.com/a/9035/SPECIAL-REPORT-More-Than-1000-International-Scientists-Dissent-Over-ManMade-Global-Warming-Claims--Challenge-UN-IPCC--Gore#.T-VJ6M92ky8.facebook and read any of their comments?
If you have actually visited the site:
2: Please list the names of Scientists on it that you feel are not qualified to be there.
3: Please list the positions of those with whom you disagree, and show why you feel they are in substantial error.
Thank you.
Kevin Chisholm
Ron
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Kevin" <kchisholm at ca.inter.net>
To: "Discussion of biomass cooking stoves" <stoves at lists.bioenergylists.org>
Sent: Tuesday, June 26, 2012 12:27:52 PM
Subject: Re: [Stoves] interesting link
Dear David
----- Original Message -----
From: "CEDESOL Foundation" <lists.cedesol at gmail.com>
To: "Discussion of biomass cooking stoves" <stoves at lists.bioenergylists.org>
Sent: Sunday, June 24, 2012 5:31 PM
Subject: Re: [Stoves] interesting link
>I agree with Dean's assessment and position on this issue.
>
> The voluntary carbon market does not depend on governments
# Quite true. However, they do depend on a "Generous Public" who believe that their voluntary
<snip>
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