[Stoves] Prakti two-burner stove features in article on "protecting the poor from climate change policies"

Mon Sep 29 12:42:33 CDT 2014

Dear Richard

Thank you for your comments. I remain a data-informed person, not model-informed. Always see through your own eyes, not the eyes of another.  

If you grow up in an environment in which it is fashionable to kill witches, they are everywhere to be found.

I take it by ‘climate change’ you really mean ‘global warming’. Correct?

As you will be aware, if you have been following the conversation, that the world has warmed 0.6 degrees in the past century, and barely at all in the past 2 decades. These facts are not in dispute (so far as I know) and the lack of increase is widely known as ‘the hiatus’ and ‘the pause’.  Many people are investigating how such a thing can happen and why it does not appear in any of the modelled outputs of future temperature which are now seriously at variance with current measurements.

I do not have a dog in this fight. I simply observe how the temperatures move and what claims are made. Your assertion that “the planet is getting warmer” in the face of widespread evidence (from measurements) that it is not, puzzles me. I provided a link to a very useful website http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/ where one can test any claims of warming (or cooling) by adding data sets. 

Here are the northern and southern hemisphere temperatures for the past decade (from HADCRUT4):

I cannot conclude from this that the temperatures are continuing to rise. They are not and there is a lot of discussion about it in the climate community.  The CO2 definitely is rising, however, from 380 to 395 in the same time period.   

The funding for stove projects that depends on carbon dioxide offsets sales is, ultimately, dependent on the sensitivity of the atmosphere to additional CO2. A new paper, the 14th recently, has place this sensitivity below the (revised in 2014) number from AR5.   Full paper of the accepted manuscript is available, along with data and code  <http://thegwpf.us4.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=c920274f2a364603849bbb505&id=aa8efc238b&e=c1a146df99> here 

That means, ultimately, that the value of carbon offsets is dropping by the month. If a stove programme is dependent on these funds, it is in peril. There is nothing wrong with having improved stove programmes and there is nothing wrong with taking the money offered, but managers should always be aware of the strengths, weaknesses and risks in their game plan.

There is no point in raising ‘Fox News’ or other ‘petro funders’. I don’t know any petro funders and I do not watch Fox News.  

One third of all humanity’s CO2 emissions have occurred since 1996. The global temperature has remained remarkably steady, though normally the climate always changes. Based on the history of 60 year up and down cycles, it should have increased for about ½ of the time (1996-2006). Modellers are perplexed. I am only noting risks to stove programmes: do not build castles dependent on carbon trading, use it to build capacity that is sustainable.

An unfortunate diversion for the stove community is the demonic misrepresentation of the charcoal supply and market, largely rooted in fanatical opposition to burning biomass. It’s crazy!  No one is advocating wasteful use of resources, but the whole industry is discussed as if it does.  It is quite possible to have sustainable charcoal created in a profitable manner, as has been achieved (temporarily for 4 years) in Chad and more recently, Rwanda and Malawi.  South Africa, which used to have hardly any trees, now has a thriving charcoal export industry. SW Botswana is drowning in uncharcoalled acacia trees that are invading its grazing lands. The same problem exists west of a line drawn south from Johannesburg delineating an area that extends all the way to Namibia. 

Having an intelligent conversation about charcoal as a domestic fuel has become difficult, even as the methods of using it effectively are so badly needed. The drive of this problem is fanatical devotion to climate model outputs that are demonstrably failing to provide useful guidance.

Now that the globe is no longer warming, the scare is that ‘climate change’ (as if that was itself something to fear) is upon us with a vengeance. Well, that is their choice. As I said, I don’t have a dog in that fight. The many claims about ‘change’ are dealt with elsewhere so there is no need to cover them here.

That main point I was making, and in my reply to Ron it is covered, is that if we don’t get our collective house in order from a scientific point of view, there may be serious and deleterious consequences. There will be no winners.

Regards

Crispin

Crispin outside of fox news and its minions and petro funders, you remain entrenched with the notion that we are not experiencing global climate change. I can see the former two as stupidity fed by corruption  but you as one of the most solid rational contributers to this list amaze me with your position. One glance at NOAA , NASA, the Hadley center and many more original sources. Their data and discussion 
Is to me,  fairly irrefutable, documented and vetted-to-death proof of the fact that the planet is getting warmer and  that the change is largely anthropogenic in nature. You can start with wikipedia and dive into the sources..10 minutes worth is sufficient. 

In every other respect, respectfully, Richard Stanley
Sent from my iPhone

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