[Stoves] Recent paper on propagation of uncertainty in WBT's conducted on improved cooking stoves (ICS)

[Frank Shields]

I wonder how much money went into that research?


Thanks

Frank
Frank Shields

fShields at keithdaycompany.com



franke at cruzio.com



> On Dec 25, 2016, at 2:59 PM, Crispin Pemberton-Pigott <crispinpigott at outlook.com> wrote:
> 
> Dear Friends
> 
> There has been some work done on this topic at CAU but this paper is dedicated to this topic only - the propagation of uncertainty.  What this means is, how sure can you be that a stove saves fuel, given the test method and the number of tests conducted.
> 
> What the paper shows is, of all stove tests that reported 'it is improved' over a three stove fire, for any given confidence, say 90%, what % of the stoves tested can actually be referred to as 'improved' at that level of confidence. Surprisingly, even at a 0% confidence interval a quarter of the stoves still do not qualify.  In brief, this paper proposes how many test replications are needed at a minimum and how to deal with performance data that is only available in small sets.
> 
> There are 4 authors, first is Fabio Riva so we can refer to it as Riva et al, 2016.
> 
> The title is Fuzzy interval propagation of uncertainties in experimental analysis for improved and traditional three - Stone fire cookstoves
> 
> It has two sources. The Research Gate one is here<https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308898807_Fuzzy_interval_propagation_of_uncertainties_in_experimental_analysis_for_improved_and_traditional_three_-_Stone_fire_cookstoves>.
> Abstract
> The performance indicators of Improved Cook Stoves (ICSs) for Developing Countries are commonly evaluated and compared using the arithmetic average of replicated tests performed using a standardized laboratory-based test, commonly the Water Boiling Test (WBT). Possibility theory is here employed to examine energy data retrieved from the WBT-based literature regarding the results of laboratory tests on ICSs and traditional Three-Stone Fire (TSF) stoves; fifty-seven comparisons of stoves are analysed. Chebyshev and uniform possibility distributions are employed to represent energy data affected by epistemic uncertainty. The extension principle of fuzzy set theory is applied to obtain possibility distributions of the saving of fuel use parameter for each comparison of cookstoves. The results indicate that at 90%, 95% and 99% degree of confidence, only 22.22%, 15.00% and 15.00% of all the supposed ''improved" stoves emerged respectively as real ICSs at most, while the percentage of ''improved" stoves obtained by considering the mean values of the WBT is among 3 and 6 times higher than the percentage resulted by taking into account the epistemic uncertainties. The work suggests how neglecting intrinsic uncertainties of tests' results might lead to misinterpret and report non-comprehensive information about ICSs' thermal energy performance, and to reveal some concerns about their effective improvements over traditional devices.
> 
> Regards
> Crispin
> 
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