[Stoves] Principal component questions

Wed Aug 23 10:57:52 CDT 2017

Dear Philip, Stovers,

I’m thinking the ‘hockey stick’ is a prediction of the future  (or past) response. This goal is determining what test (and the parameter they show) are relevant to a successful burn. You can’t slide a block of wood into a rocket stove and expect it to burn. Nor a bag of sawdust so  measuring size of fuel useful and then coming up with the best size to use along with upper and lower limits. This done testing one stove with many different fuels. All with different constituent concentrations to tease out the values at the boundaries of good burn. All done on a dry weight basis.  All using wild fuels. The stove now has a sheet of paper included with the upper and lower values required from the fuel for a successful burn. Next is looking for the places where the fuel exists. 

We need to start with controlling the fuel. We can do that by testing in one location with their biomass and see how much cleaner the air is using a super advanced stove but those results are not good for any other place. All the air quality and health benefits reported using advanced stoves are meaningless - > unless the fuel used is controlled.  How do we do that?

Regards

Frank 

> On Aug 22, 2017, at 10:58 PM, Philip Lloyd <plloyd at mweb.co.za> wrote:
> 
> A note of warning – principal component analysis is a tricky technique. Famously, Michael Mann used it to develop his “hockey stick” and Steve McIntyre showed how Mann’s misuse would always produce a hockey stick.  Indeed, it could produce one even when fed by random data! Before you plunge in (and it seems so seductive) make sure you have a good mathematician alongside.
>  
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> From: Stoves [mailto:stoves-bounces at lists.bioenergylists.org] On Behalf Of Frank Shields
> Sent: Wednesday, August 23, 2017 6:59 AM
> To: Discussion of biomass cooking stoves
> Subject: Re: [Stoves] Principal component questions
>  
>>  
>> Dear Stovers,
>>  
>> Please take a look at this link:
>>  
>> http://setosa.io/ev/principal-component-analysis/ <http://setosa.io/ev/principal-component-analysis/>
>>  
>> Way over my head but I am thinking something like this could be used to match up biomass to specific stoves. I was thinking of a ’spider graph in the past but this looks better. 
>>  
>> I have a suggested test package, producing many results, that can be done on many different biomass. A specific stove uses the different biomasses tested and the results as to time, fuel used, PM2.5 etc reported. The biomasses that produced acceptable combustion that completes a task people are happy with is listed. We use this method to determine the tests within the package that are important in determining the best fuels to use and the range they must fall into.
>  
> I am thinking the vertical column from Alcoholic drinks > to > Sugars we replace with the packages of tests we are doing on the biomass. Like Fixed Carbon, Bulk carbon density, resins, length to width ratio, average length,…… 
>  
> Across the top replace England > to > Wales with the fuel used like Fuel A, Fuel B, Fuel …  This using the same stove but different fuels that work. 
>  
> The results all need to be in the same units so I suggest establishing a typical range for each test. Resins could go from zero to 10%, Length to width from 1:1 (cube) to 1:50 (long stick). The results found on Fuel A would be reported as a percentage of the typical. If found 2% resin then the reported value is 20 (for 20%). Some might go above 100% but that is ok.
>  
> It seems they have a 3 dimension but I don’t see the third values. They have foods vs country so what is the third? 
>  
> The purpose is to determine the tests used that make a difference and knowing what they measure and range that produce the best results we can pretest fuels and determine if they will work OR find the stoves that are best for using them. 
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>> Frank 
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>> Frank
>> Frank Shields
>> Gabilan Laboratory
>> Keith Day Company, Inc.
>> 1091 Madison Lane
>> Salinas, CA  93907
>> (831) 246-0417 cell
>> (831) 771-0126 office
>> fShields at keithdaycompany.com <mailto:fShields at keithdaycompany.com>
>>  
>>  
>>  
>> franke at cruzio.com <mailto:franke at cruzio.com>
>>  
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>>  
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>> 
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>  
> Thanks
>  
> Frank
> Frank Shields
> Gabilan Laboratory
> Keith Day Company, Inc.
> 1091 Madison Lane
> Salinas, CA  93907
> (831) 246-0417 cell
> (831) 771-0126 office
> fShields at keithdaycompany.com <mailto:fShields at keithdaycompany.com>
>  
>  
>  
> franke at cruzio.com <mailto:franke at cruzio.com>
>  
>  
>  
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> 
> for more Biomass Cooking Stoves,  News and Information see our web site:
> http://stoves.bioenergylists.org/ <http://stoves.bioenergylists.org/>
Thanks

Frank
Frank Shields
Gabilan Laboratory
Keith Day Company, Inc.
1091 Madison Lane
Salinas, CA  93907
(831) 246-0417 cell
(831) 771-0126 office
fShields at keithdaycompany.com

franke at cruzio.com

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