[Stoves] LPG import in India

[Crispin Pemberton-Pigott]

Dear Tom

Of some relevance:
Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

That is a decent look at net primary production (NPP) and use of forest. Two things are missing. Well, one is missing and one is off the rails. 

The missing thing is any mention that by 2100 the CO2 concentration is expected to be perhaps 450-475 ppm and this will create a much larger NPP‎ value, plus a drop in water consumption per ton. So the estimate of production and acreage and water use needs adjusting. To be useful it should have graphs, not a single number, CO2 against NPP. 

The thing that is off the rails is the statement about 'biomass having PM2.5 and PM10 of xxx per cubic metre' compared with charcoal. This clearly assumes that PM, VOCs and so on are inherent in the fuel, not created by the combustor. 

For a fancy bit of modeling that is a major faux pas. Missing is an estimate of how improved technologies will reduce those emissions over time based on current trends in combustion technology. 

A rise in CO2 by another 75 ppm will increase NPP by perhaps 15% which is much more than their predicted shortfall. A drop in emissions from burning wood of say, 98% would also change their scenarios significantly. 

Perhaps we should enter a correspondence with them. 

Regards 
Crispin