[Stoves] Air pollution kills

Fri May 11 21:29:24 CDT 2018

Dear Xavier

I will truncate the message to now material only.

>OK, but maybe not all studies are like the Korean one.

It surprises me how many are easily questioned.

>Then, for Ulan-Bator, for Mongolia, and as well for the world, there is a need of a serious meta-analysis, which also reviews and criticizes the methodology of the epidemiological studies on air pollution.

I am not sure the measurements are defective, but the analysis os 'opportunistic' and frequently attached to some or other hare-brained scheme to sell someting expensive and subsidize it to the public. Everyone is into 'cures'. The marketing of health issues (air quality porn) seems to be an integral part of solutions these days.

>I wouldn't throw epidemiology with the bath water. It seems to me that it is epidemiology which found the link between smoking and lung cancer:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2005/apr/24/smoking.medicineandhealth<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fsociety%2F2005%2Fapr%2F24%2Fsmoking.medicineandhealth&data=02%7C01%7C%7C6c6ab7f7370f40515b9808d5b786beb1%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636616711706691569&sdata=%2B4Q70wjzb4bCN4Zhn7F6uzhW1owfFGzBkT7rUVpLkbE%3D&reserved=0>

Granted, and that was evident by the 60's. My father was a casualty.

>>"The claim that 4.3m people 'die from air pollution' per annum is clearly false"
>Indeed, but they might say instead: "Based on our data and statistics and methodology, we have attributed the death of around 4.3 million people to air pollution.

Hold on there - that is a mis-quote. The original does not say 'attributed the death... > is says that it contributed to the premature death (life shortning) of 4.3m people. It is not a cause of death, and it is also an intellectual nuisance, as Nikhil says (very appropriately) just now. There are so many nuisances that it is hard to get actual work done.

> >The fact is that we highly suspect air pollution to be dangerous for human health, so beware."

That is a reasonable statement. No falsifiable claims.

>"Children in Ulaanbaatar, are taken bronchitis in 1.4-2.7 times and bronchitis asthma in 5.5-7.9 times more than children who are living in rural areas"
>Mentioning this "less air pollution." is already attributing a cause.

I am trying to establish that making claims, or just assertions is not enough. We do not solve problems that way, we generate income (apparently).

>Maybe the cold is responsible of the bronchitis in Nalaikh, but not in Ulan Bator. Maybe the cold is responsible everywhere and that is not well measured or known.

It would be easy enough to check. No one talks about chronic under-heating, but if I ask people individually I get a lot of anecdotes that it is a major issue, also attitudes about how to 'make children tough'.

>Then, that "colder hypothesis" would infirm what was found in this study, that air pollution from stoves was the main cause.

It is the main cause of air pollution (well, was - not I think low pressure boilers predominate). Is it the main cause of all manner of diseases? Maybe, maybe not. If the stove smoke is completely done away with, what problems are likely to remain?  Asthma, bronchitis, chilblains, PM with or without bacterial loads from animal dung, pit latrines, dust storms (which can be severe) and the usual vehicle and road and construction dust.

>If millions of dollars should go to preventing under-heating rather than clean stoves, then that is worth a medical study, to attribute deaths to cold.

I think the apartments are all well-heated. Perhaps a meta-analysis would do to get sufficient proof about the benefits of heating well.

I was surprised when looking at a recent study in which warmer homes and cleaner indoor air came together. The improvement in healt was all attributed to lowering the PM, no mention of being warmer as having an effect on ALRI. That is weird. When I was young it was popular to say, < Dress warmly or you'll catch your death of cold.> Maybe it would have been sufficient to tell us not to stand downwind from chimneys.

Regards
Crispin
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