[Stoves] WHO and 600,000 dead children

Tue Nov 6 09:21:39 CST 2018

Dear Paul

It is also reported here:
http://www.msn.com/en-ca/weather/video/seven-million-people-a-year-die-from-air-pollution-who-report-says/vi-BBPnXnf?ocid=ientp

The odd thing is that the claim is phrased as a medical statement, but it is attributional, not causal.

I wonder if this is from an IHME source, which converts national cohort GBD attributions to “deaths” by a single cause. Because of the large claimed number of child-under-five deaths in Africa I looked up the number of deaths “caused” (medical statements) by various things like malaria which is on of the major causes of death on that continent in the 0-5 age. I was not able to show that there was overlap between malaria deaths and “those attributed to air pollution”.  Not enough information, but smoke attribution is far less than malaria.

I think we are going to have to hold a conversation about putting chimneys on all stoves that are not exceedingly clean. And, they should not leak.  I was re-reading the recent paper by Omar Masera and others testing the WHO exposure model in Mexico.  They took three stoves with known emission rates (plancha stoves) and tested the prediction of air quality using a Monte Carlo Simulation the same as the single box model we have talked about previously here.

The air quality was 6 to 10 to 100 times better than the single box model predicted. The implication is that the targets for emission rates are far too low, if the exposure and health implication is indicative of a disease response as claimed.

If that was not clear, what it means is that the air quality is far better than modeled and stoves can have far higher emissions than is suggested at the moment, as embodied in the new ISO standard 19876-3.  The target is an emission rate, not a consequential air quality target. The model sits between the emission rate and the consequent air quality. What the investigation shows is that the emission rate could be 6 to 10 times higher in order and still not reach the acceptable WHO guideline for PM2.5.

I look forward to further independent investigation on this point. If the estimations are based on LNT and “equitoxicity” we should initiate a conversation about how to determine the permissible rates and what the composition of those contaminants are. Smouldering straw makes acrid smoke that stings the eyes at 400 µg/m3.  A dust storm at 2000 µg/m3 doesn’t.

Particles are not equal. The remarkable results from the Kyrgyzstan winter heating pilot (2017-18) are in and show huge IAQ benefits from change the stove – the same as last year. Badly burned dung, wood and coal in poorly made or improperly installed stoves has been creating huge health problems.  There is no chance the fuels will be substituted. We achieved compliant air standards in multiple homes even with confounding factors.

Regards
Crispin

PS This is helpful. The results on KG were definitive: fuel substitution is not the only answer. A large and positive impact was found for children, unlike the meta-analysis.   I believe the difference is the level of technology implemented.
BTW the link given in the article below doesn’t work – this one does:

https://thorax.bmj.com/content/73/11/1026
“Impact of improved cookstoves on women’s and child health in low and middle income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis”
Megha Thakur, Paulien A W Nuyts, Esther A Boudewijns, Javier Flores Kim,
Timor Faber, Giridhara R Babu, Onno C P van Schayck, Jasper V Been

Thorax, Environmental Exposure, Volume 73, Issue 11.

Conclusion Improved cookstoves provide respiratory and ocular symptom reduction and may reduce COPD risk among women, but had no demonstrable child health impact.

++++++++

Regards
Crispin

Crispin,    And three leaders of WHO whose email addresses are provide with the original WHO article.

Thank you for your message and the links.

Calculated the other way around, the WHO is saying that only 130 milllion (7% of the total) of the world’s children under the age of 15 are breathing air that does not “put their health and development at serious risk.”

Absurd.   This would be fake news if it was said by an American politician.   But WHO is printing this within the past month.  Of course, WHO gets to set the standard for what it declares to be “clean air”.   I know places with dirty air that I should avoid, but I am hard pressed to identify where my grandchildren could live to be included in the 7% with sufficiently clean air.

http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/29-10-2018-more-than-90-of-the-world%E2%80%99s-children-breathe-toxic-air-every-day<https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.who.int%2Fnews-room%2Fdetail%2F29-10-2018-more-than-90-of-the-world%25E2%2580%2599s-children-breathe-toxic-air-every-day&data=02%7C01%7C%7C9b623602dd5a44f2d1c808d643eca607%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636771081002759455&sdata=SQH2EI2OVvF4NF4YRLld2ji7%2FtvjhrXcIq%2BRqZfdabs%3D&reserved=0>

93% could almost be stated “virtually all”.

There are so many other more pressing problems in this world that WHO could help solve.  Or focus on only the 46% (half of 93%) of the under-15-years-olds who are breathing the worst air.   That could be a worthy target.

WHO loses credibility with such extreme positions about “clean air”.   And the limited funds become justified to spend on places with quite clean air that just falls below the WHO standard.

If WHO responds to this message, I will forward the responses to the Stoves Listserv.

Paul

Doc / Dr TLUD / Paul S. Anderson, PhD
Exec. Dir. of Juntos Energy Solutions NFP
Email:  psanders at ilstu.edu<mailto:psanders at ilstu.edu>       Skype:   paultlud
Phone:  Office: 309-452-7072    Mobile: 309-531-4434
Website:   www.drtlud.com<https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.drtlud.com&data=02%7C01%7C%7C9b623602dd5a44f2d1c808d643eca607%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636771081002759455&sdata=kXf4cmaUyo1nBT3iuQwmtbrRzhJUS9egET%2BCRNsk3P4%3D&reserved=0>

From: Stoves <stoves-bounces at lists.bioenergylists.org> On Behalf Of Crispin Pemberton-Pigott
Sent: Tuesday, November 6, 2018 3:38 AM
To: Discussion of biomass cooking stoves <Stoves at lists.bioenergylists.org>
Subject: [Stoves] WHO and 600,000 dead children

Dear Clean Burning Friends

This has big implications for cooking stoves without chimneys.

I found this at WUWT on the weekly update which this week is a particularly rich source of links.

The one below refers to the WHO meeting last week. The opinions are not mine. The reference to 'steam' is this: often when trying to make a fuel (coal, for example) look "dirty" a ‎photo will accompany the article of a power station emitting steam from a chimney or cooling tower, photographed at dawn or sunset with the sun on the far side of the steam. This makes white steam look black, and the accompanying text will say something negative about the emissions.  The Guardian newspaper is well known for doing this. In this case the reporter uses the same trick.

The BBC covered this story last week claiming that living in Delhi during the annual burning of the straw (which they showed) was like smoking 40 cigarettes per day. I have already shown how that calculation is made: a cigarette exposes the smoker to 40-45 mg of PM2.5. The actual exposure for an adult living 24/7 in 160 micrograms/m^3 (bad days in Delhi) is 1/28th of a cigarette‎ per day. So when the exaggeration starts off at a factor of >1000 you know there is a Hans Christian Anderson fairy tale in there somewhere.

The BBC repeated the "600,000 children are killed ‎by air pollution each year" quote.

This story accompanies the long standing call to ban all solid fuels as they cannot be burned cleanly. ‎After all, damp straw burning in a field proves all biomass is dirty fuel, right?

Regards
Crispin

++++++++++

WHO: 600,000 children died from air pollution in 2016

By Michael Burke, The Hill, Oct 29, 2018

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/413606-who-600000-children-died-from-air-pollution-in-2016<https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fthehill.com%2Fpolicy%2Fenergy-environment%2F413606-who-600000-children-died-from-air-pollution-in-2016&data=02%7C01%7C%7C9b623602dd5a44f2d1c808d643eca607%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636771081002759455&sdata=RPRZwQIKeFSfHMtVzdF79P%2FAVK7LqkS2MsD7st46ZvY%3D&reserved=0>

Link to press release: More than 90% of the world’s children breathe toxic air every day

By Staff Writers, WHO, Oct 29, 2018

http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/29-10-2018-more-than-90-of-the-world%E2%80%99s-children-breathe-toxic-air-every-day<https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.who.int%2Fnews-room%2Fdetail%2F29-10-2018-more-than-90-of-the-world%25E2%2580%2599s-children-breathe-toxic-air-every-day&data=02%7C01%7C%7C9b623602dd5a44f2d1c808d643eca607%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636771081002759455&sdata=SQH2EI2OVvF4NF4YRLld2ji7%2FtvjhrXcIq%2BRqZfdabs%3D&reserved=0>

[SEPP Comment: The article features a photo of a power plant emitting steam. In many countries indoor air pollution is a big problem, the photo in The Hill makes it trivial. WHO reports regarding PM2.5 in high-income countries are highly questionable.]

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.bioenergylists.org/pipermail/stoves_lists.bioenergylists.org/attachments/20181106/c39c3884/attachment.html>