[Stoves] Yet another review paper (2014): Perspectives in Household Air Pollution Research: Who Will Benefit from Interventions

[Tom Miles]

Paul,

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Tom


On Thu, Jan 2, 2020 at 3:30 PM Anderson, Paul <psanders at ilstu.edu> wrote:

> To ALL.   I am NOT receiving the messages sent to the Stoves
> Listserv!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   And many of your might not be receiving this.
> Do my messages sent out reach you via the Stoves Listserv?   James???
>
>
>
> I cannot answer if I do not receive.   I only got the message below
> because I was added on to receive a direct copy.
>
>
>
> >>>>>>>>>>Ron: (adding Paul now for direct)
>
>
> My comment in brief, char-making cookstoves should be extremely important
> for the poorest people because they can be used to make an income.   But
> only if the project / society is supportive.   The  poor have insufficient
> interest or power to manage it on their own.    The CDR (Drawdown, NET,
> PyCCS) believers need to recognize that MULTIPLE benefits for many people
> can come from getting the char-making stoves to the poor.  Nothing coming
> through so far to be of help.
>
>
>
> Paul
>
>
>
> Doc / Dr TLUD / Paul S. Anderson, PhD --- Website:   www.drtlud.com
>
>      Email:  psanders at ilstu.edu       Skype:   paultlud
>
>      Phone:  Office: 309-452-7072    Mobile & WhatsApp: 309-531-4434
>
> Exec. Dir. of Juntos Energy Solutions NFP
>
>      Go to: www.JuntosNFP.org  to support woodgas (TLUD) projects
>
>      incl. purchase of Woodgas Emission Reduction (WER) carbon credits
>
>      and please tell you friends about these distinctive service efforts.
>
> Author of “*A Capitalist Carol*” (free digital copies at
> www.capitalism21.org)
>
>      with pages 88 – 94 about  solving the world crisis for clean
> cookstoves.
>
>
>
> *From:* Nikhil Desai <pienergy2008 at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Thursday, January 2, 2020 3:31 PM
> *To:* Ronal Larson <rongretlarson at comcast.net>
> *Cc:* Discussion of biomass cooking stoves <
> stoves at lists.bioenergylists.org>; Crispin Pemberton-Pigott <
> crispinpigott at outlook.com>; teddy <cookswelljikos at gmail.com>; Gordon West
> <gordon.west at rtnewmexico.com>; Bill Knauss <wmknauss at gmail.com>;
> Anderson, Paul <psanders at ilstu.edu>
> *Subject:* Re: Yet another review paper (2014): Perspectives in Household
> Air Pollution Research: Who Will Benefit from Interventions
>
>
>
> *[This message came from an external source. If suspicious, report to
> abuse at ilstu.edu <abuse at ilstu.edu>] *
>
> Ron: (adding Paul now for direct)
>
>
>
> I take exception.
>
> Correction: I am not denying anything in principle.
>
> The burden of proof for the feasibility of the MASSIVE carbon drawdown
> that is relevant to climate modeling purposes is on you.
>
> Not every molecule of CO2 is a WMD. And a billion tons of CDR makes zero
> difference to the poor who suffer the climate here and now. There is no
> "small part of the climate problem". Global climate system is a
> multi-decadal homogeneous emtity (look up "well-mixed long-lived gases" vs.
> "non-well-mixed short-lived".
>
> Here is a teaser for you, and something you and I may reach an agreement
> on rather readily: *What if *in theory, "sustainable agriculture" and
> "carbon negative char" yielded not only local ecosystem benefits but local
> air pollution reduction and local temperature reduction? (The latter can
> come not just from SLCP reduction but by more vegetation, more soil and
> water retention, higher soil and water productivity)?
>
> Every now and then I slip into rich theories!
>
> N
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Nikhil Desai
>
> (US +1) 202 568 5831
> *Skype: nikhildesai888*
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Jan 2, 2020 at 3:36 PM Ronal Larson <rongretlarson at comcast.net>
> wrote:
>
> List and ccs:
>
>
>
> I think we have reached the end of needed dialog.  I am basing everything
> in this thread on a hopeful connection between char-making stoves and the
> climate and restoration communities that is (below) being denied by Nikhil.
>
>
>
>
> Two comments below.
>
>
>
>
>
> On Jan 2, 2020, at 11:16 AM, Nikhil Desai <pienergy2008 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> Ron:
>
> You: "My query to this list is - how can we best use the fact that
> char-making stoves can make money for their users?  Nikhil has failed to
> address that issue.  Is mine a non-serious question?  One has to believe
> that climate change is real to get into this topic in a serious way."
>
> Your question IS serious. The only positive comment I have made thus far -
> beginning three years ago - is that I see commercial char ovens and
> commercial char stoves as promising , if the land and the feedstock are
> available at low cost.
>
> I differ on whether taking climate change seriously requires taking the
> business potential of char making and CDR seriously. There are many CDR
> options, mostly on paper. I suggest making a business case for one
> location, one feedstock, and one set of customers. Climate change is too
> big a problem.
>
> *[RWL:  You may be right.  We do indeed differ on whether trying to solve
> a small part of the climate problem via char-making stoves is worth
> anyone's effort.  I see stoves and char-making as an avenue into much
> larger char-making with most of the char going into the soil - never to be
> used for cooking.  Lesser value, but still valuable, to put the char into
> asphalt and similar.  Many cash-related problems affecting the 50% of
> the world cooking with biomass might have some relief if the money
> available for climate restoration were directed to the community being
> served by this list.  My just-sent response to Gordon and Bill is in that
> spirit - so I know there are some believers.  *
>
>
>
> *I emphasize I am in a fact-finding, not solution recommending, mode here.
> *
>
>
>
> *Any others see a possible connection between charcoal-making (and
> money-making) stoves and the excess atmospheric carbon world (which is
> looking for ways to spend money)?*
>
>
>
>
>
> *one more below. *
>
>
>
> I think you misinterpreted my last sentence. Just because char using
> stoves can make demonstrable contribution to reduction in air pollution
> exposures does not mean I am ruling out char making stoves. Air quality is
> a local property that is also affected by wind patterns over a wider range.
> Much of the current, conventional char making in the developing world is
> polluting. Together, clean char making and clean char use can, in theory,
> be significant contributors to alleviating SOME air pollution. The history
> of successful interventions in reducing air pollution from charcoal making
> kilns or charcoal using kilns is not very promising, however.
>
> If I were to take that you have jumped off the bandwagon for predictable
> health benefits - it'll take impossibly hard and costly research - and are
> thinking of nothing but charcoal-making stoves, I hope these pointers
> encourage more discussion:
>
> a. It takes a revolutionary breakthrough for technological and behavioral
> changes to take place at global scale. Wireless telephony and
> grid-connected PV (maybe wind) are good examples. Char-making is not a
> revolutionary breadkthrough.
> b. It also takes an institutional pipeline for knowledge, finance, and
> skilled labor for such breakthroughs to occur. I see no such prospect on
> the horizon. (Remember the dreams shattered and left by the wayside over
> the last 30 years - NREL's Village Power that led to the Global Village
> Energy Partnership whose results to date are dubious. Same thing with GACC.
> Same with SE4All. Or UN SDG apparatus, the Paris Accord; the list of
> failures is long.) LPG and electricity succeed because these pipelines
> exist. Remember Kirk Smith's a challenge to biomass stoves community
> <https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53856e1ee4b00c6f1fc1f602/t/590b78d49de4bb6e66c97095/1493924052510/ESD+editorial+on+biomas.pdf>(2017)
> and the 2015 piece in Caravan (India) magazine Up in Smoke.
> <https://caravanmagazine.in/reportage/smoke-india-perfect-cookstove>
>
> c. GACC has driven a stake through the credibility of the "biomass stove
> community". UNF taking intellectual command over WHO and then to energy
> access and cooking health SDG is a fraud and a travesty. Whatever
> credibility was built up for investments in biomass stoves - by which I
> mean not donor-driven, donor-controlled (EnDev and other GTZ/GIZ projects
> or some regional and national projects) but those where national
> governments had taken their own or World Bank money to make new boimass
> stoves a success - was destroyed by GACC. I think the World Bank will once
> again try to use bilateral donor grants for biomass cooking, but I hope
> they use the ISO guidelines and "voluntary performance standards" sparingly
> and after serious critical analysis. (And avoid the aDALY fraud.)
>
> I wish I could be more encouraging. All I can say is that I admire your
> enthusiasm..Past failures are no guarantee of future failures.   Let's have
> a business case that does not require anything of government policy changes
> or government financing.
>
> I took a quick look at the paper Haight et al. (2019)  Estimating the
> Present Value ofCarbon Sequestration in U.S. Forests,2015–2050, for
> Evaluating FederalClimate Change Mitigation Policies
> <https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/4B8AFEEA2102B1F54561B05586E5FA8A/S1068280519000200a.pdf/div-class-title-estimating-the-present-value-of-carbon-sequestration-in-u-s-forests-2015-2050-for-evaluating-federal-climate-change-mitigation-policies-div.pdf>.
> As a matter of general preference, I don't give a hoot about computations
> of "social cost of carbon", and I am also allergic to references to Bill
> Nordhaus and Michael Greenstone. (The only climate economist I was hoping
> to get some more insight from killed himself a few months ago.)
>
> But this paper offers hope - if there is POLITICAL traction, then come
> 2021, a Pete Buttigieg  may champion carbon storage in soils. See
> https://peteforamerica.com/policies/climate/ Amy Klobuchar is supporting
> current and new biofuels.
> https://www.klobuchar.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/homegrown-energy-environment-natural-resources
>
> I won't hold my breath for char revolution or for it to make any
> difference in climate vulnerabilities of anybody anywhere. Poor people
> don't have the luxury to worry about climate emergency.
>
> *[RWL:  I think you give them too little credit.  I think we can close
> your part of this thread - I have understood you don’t concur with the
> thrust.*
>
>
>
> *Ron*
>
>
>
>
> Nikhil
>
>
>
> PS: Yes, Peel's connection to Kirk Smith is relevant but this paper is
> also significant for all its references (some of which I have known over
> the years). The main point, for those who are still stuck in the world of
> senseless modeling, Michael Johnson's - I think he himself would readily
> concede that - or Ajay Pillarisetti - who too might - this Clark-Peel paper
> as quoted is a reminder that there is no there there in the EPA/WHO,
> Gates/IHME cockamamie. (I am joining EPA and WHO, and Gates Foundation and
> IHME because of the bureaucratic and financial linkages; I have no inside
> knowledge, but an audit of contracts would help.)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Nikhil Desai
>
> (US +1) 202 568 5831
> *Skype: nikhildesai888*
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Jan 2, 2020 at 11:21 AM Ronal Larson <rongretlarson at comcast.net>
> wrote:
>
> List with ccs
>
>
>
> The pertinence here seems to be that Peel once worked with Smith.  Not at
> all pertinent to my initial query - on using the fact that char-making (not
> char using as Nikhil uses in his final paragraph). Is different from all
> other stove types. And is almost not discussed at all in stove—health
> publications.  And clearly char-making stoves are the healthiest of all
> starting with biomass.
>
>
>
> There is a surprising link to my carbon-climate world towards the end of
> this paper - recommending this paper:
> https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/4B8AFEEA2102B1F54561B05586E5FA8A/S1068280519000200a.pdf/div-class-title-estimating-the-present-value-of-carbon-sequestration-in-u-s-forests-2015-2050-for-evaluating-federal-climate-change-mitigation-policies-div.pdf.
> It has no connection to char-making cookstoves - which I think will be
> limited to the half of the world now cooking with biomass.  And who could
> use a little more income (and a lot less expense).
>
>
>
> Again,  My query to this list is - how can we best use the fact that
> char-making stoves can make money for their users?  Nikhil has failed to
> address that issue.  Is mine a non-serious question?  One has to believe
> that climate change is real to get into this topic in a serious way.
>
>
>
> Ron
>
>
>
>
>
> On Jan 2, 2020, at 8:07 AM, Nikhil Desai <pienergy2008 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> Ron:
>
> Your references led to more references; here  Clark, M.L. & Peel, J.L. Perspectives
> in Household Air Pollution Research: Who Will Benefit from Interventions?
> <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40572-014-0021-0#citeas>  Curr
> Envir Health Rpt (2014) 1: 250. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572-014-0021-0
>
>
>
>
> "Several investigators have hypothesized that those individuals who are
> more susceptible to the adverse effects of air pollution exposure may also
> be the groups that benefit most from efforts to reduce air pollution levels
> (e.g., traffic reduction plans, industrial facility closings, indoor air
> filter interventions) [47
> <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40572-014-0021-0#CR47>, 48
> <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40572-014-0021-0#CR48>], *yet
> this question has largely been ignored in the cookstove field*. Valid
> assessments of the true exposure-response relationships among various
> subpopulations are necessary to inform a more accurate estimate of the
> global burden of disease attributed to cookstove smoke, an identified
> research gap needed to convince governments and policy makers to enact
> interventions [49
> <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40572-014-0021-0#CR49>].
> Evidence regarding who benefits from improved air quality is limited and
> inconsistent.* It is not known whether larger predicted benefits among
> certain subpopulations are due to differences in greater relative
> improvements associated with air pollution reductions (i.e., different
> exposure-response functions experienced by the subgroups) or differences in
> absolute improvements because of poorer baseline health status, which may
> be independent of air pollution* [47
> <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40572-014-0021-0#CR47>]. "
> `(Emphasis added).
>
>
>
> Let me put this in simple but contentious terms: as of 2014 at least,
> NOBODY KNEW. Kirk Smith's robust physicist approach to setting the
> boundaries of HAP as solid fuel origin emissions meant that, in practical
> terms, solid fuels were demonized and LPG/gas/electricity promised as "life
> saving" (aDALY terms, at least).
>
> Mind you, one of the co-authors here (J. Peel) also co-wrote with Kirk
> Smith the paper "Mind the gap" (2010), in my view opening up a radical (but
> mistaken) path to concocting the Integrated Exposure Response, whereby Kirk
> Smith ignored all the chemical diversity, took PM2. equitoxicity as an
> article of faith, and his colleagues manufactured extremely limited
> concentration estimates from some 600 Indian households during winters (as
> I remember it; I forget the village locations and months).
>
> What happened in 2014 is well-known: a set of hasty "literature reviews"
> for the WHO, and Burnett et al.
> <https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24518036> cooking up the IER, IHME
> the HAP DALYs. Then EPA contractors essentially dictating to WHO the
> terms of HCFC Guidelines
> <https://www.who.int/airpollution/guidelines/household-fuel-combustion/IAQ_HHFC_guidelines.pdf> and
> thereby the ISO TC-285 methods and tier levels.
>
> What Clark and Peel observed in 2014 is still valid, more so since GACC
> has morphed into CCA, paid marketers of LPG, and Kirk Smith is still
> looking to market aDALY consultancies if Goldman Sachs and Gold Standard
> have their way.
>
> For biomass stovers, though, the question remains: how much really needs
> to be known to make a meaningful change? Thee authors say "The ability to
> know what to expect from cookstove interventions (i.e., to accurately
> describe the presence of the subgroup response, as simplified in Figure 1,
> as being a meaningful shift in health improvement) is crucial to reducing
> scientific uncertainty and to encourage policy makers to enact change. "
>
> What has happened is that "scientific uncertainty" and ignorance are
> suppressed and a new religion of LPG has taken shape in CCA.
>
> My view is, quantification of "health effects" is academic sideshow. The
> real challenge is to develop biomass stove designs for commercial and
> household markets that can make demonstrable contributions to reduction in
> air pollution exposures. I submit household wood cookstoves can do  that,
> charcoal stoves do that, and commercial charcoal stoves could do that
> faster. But then, that's just a hunch. CCA has got the money to spread the
> gas.
>
> N
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Nikhil Desai
>
> (US +1) 202 568 5831
> *Skype: nikhildesai888*
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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-- 
T R Miles Technical Consultants, Inc
1470 SW Woodward Way
Portland, OR 97225
tmiles at trmiles.com
www.trmiles.com
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