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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-CA link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'>Dear Xavier<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'>></span><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>Sorry, but I strongly disagree with your statement Crispin on global warming/climate change/climate disruption.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>No need to be sorry. You are in good company, as am I. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'>>….</span><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>what is the real footprint of charcoal over its entire lifetime. <span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Agreed.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>I agree also that we cannot eradicate it as simply as that. It's not likely outlawing the entire sector would benefit local economy, on the contrary. In Benin, many people depend on charcoal supply for their cooking, or simply because they have a job in the sector. It's not sure either outlawing this activity would suppress it, nor decrease harmful and warming emissions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>To tack ‘warming emissions’ on any argument about charcoal is opportunistic, in my view. Charcoal production causes all sorts of problems and like many industries that cause problems, it provides employment to a large number of people too. It extracts more than $50m per year from major cities and pumps it into the rural economies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'>></span><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>True, global warming is a good marketing argument a growing number of businesses in the "green energies" sector benefit. So do I. Does it mean it is not true? <span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Saying it does not make it true.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>You could reverse the argument: companies of the fossil fuels sector benefit the idea there's no such thing as climate change.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>I never said there is no climate change, and it is interesting to see the topic move rapidly one to the other. It is common knowlegde that the climate changes – it is always changing. The debate is whether it changes because of human CO2 emissions, and if so, how much. There is a movement within the stoves community to make statements about the ‘contribution of cooking stoves to climate change. From my vantage point, it is more about finding additional funding for projects that are otherwise unsustainable. I am not convinced you can subsidise sustainable progress.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>On one side or another, the hidden interests cannot inform us about the authenticity of the two theories.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'>There are far more than two theories. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'>Fossil fuel companies (which fund the CRU among many things) benefit enormously from scares about CO2 and fuel. That benefit is in the form of higher fuel prices, now at record levels in Waterloo where I am sitting at present.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'><br>In the debate of global warming, we hear so many (conspiracy)theories that it is also easy to go cherry-picking to give credence to one or another.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Exactly. And the places to discuss them are elsewhere. I recommend WattsUpWithThat which is very open and invites opinion from all comers, and Dr Judith Curry’s new discussion site which is not as broad in focus and high level. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>In the Phil Jones graph you sent Crispin, we can see a global cooling, that is correct, but only for the period of March 2010 to March 2011, so a period of one year. <span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>I am not sure about a chart from Phil. The charts I referred to were from Courtillot. I was of course referring to Phli’s statement about ‘no significant temperature rise since 1995’ which was made some time ago. He uses the term ‘significant’ in the technically correct sense there.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>We should be careful not to make Phil Jones say what he never meant. <span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Exactly I encourage people to read not only what Phil says but the temperature charts for their region and the world. Phil said a lot of things I don’t agree with, too. He has also lied. That doesn’t make him wrong on everything.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>This article quotes an interview of Phil Jones on BBC published saturday 13th of February 2010. Phil Jones, the director of the Climate Research Unit of the West Anglia university, clearly states that: " The global warming of (+0.12°C per decade) is the same over three periods (1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998), but we notice on the 2002-2009 period a cooling of 0.12°C per decade. A tendency which is not significative, for the period is too short".<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>I am really happy that you include the ‘period is too short’ because every time there is a hot sport (like Moscow 2010) we are told ‘it is evidence of warming’ even though it was freezing cold next door in Kazakhstan at the same time. I again encourage people to investigate for themselves and no take anything at face value. If we took everything on the basis of yelling, we would have banned paraffin long ago. And candles (they cause a lot of fires). And knives.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>So you are right, there is a cooling, it has even been going on for longer than one year, but it doesn't contradict the global warming that has been occuring for a century and a half (since industrial ages). <span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>I do agree there has been global warming since 1850. However you did not also point out that it has been warming for 400 years, not only since 1850. I feel that is a misrepresentation of the facts. It does not warm evenly and appears to warm and cool in 30 year cycles.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>Actually the graph in the link you sent here <a href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/04/uah-temperature-update-for-march-2011-cooler-still-0-10-deg-c/">http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/04/uah-temperature-update-for-march-2011-cooler-still-0-10-deg-c/</a> confirms it, we can easily see the tendency. <span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Agreed. It does show global warming. When did this warming begin, according to that chart? Are there other charts ?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>Temperature of March 2011 is warmer than temperature of 1979. And is seems March 2011 is a "down" of the curve, it is probably there will be a "up" soon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>That is an assumption based on what, exactly? Accoding to Prof Courtillot, who presents a very well reasoned case, it is going to go down for approximately 30 years. He not, by far, the first person to have made this prediction. As far as I know his work takes into account a realistic GW forcing for CO2 though I do not know him as a well known ‘modeller’. The best predictions so far are made by Theodor Landscheidt whose work encouraged me to start concentrating on space heating stoves.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>In this article, a another climatologist explains that the pace of global warming slowed down, it was anticipated by the climatologists community, this is what they call "a plateau". Phil Jones said he was "100% sure" global warming was occuring and it was due to men's actions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>That is his opinion and he has very little to support it, though lots of supporters, in my view. There are many others around with different opinions, some of which I have read. Some are better than others. Thereare hundreds who think that the ‘human signature’ is not only unproven, but would be undetectable anyway.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>Crispin, you are quoting Vincent Courtillot. He is perhaps a good geophysician, but he is mostly known in France for being at best very wrong on climate change questions, at worst a liar (he and his colleague Claude Allègre). His theories have been unanimously destroyed by the scientific community, especially by the Académie des Sciences: <a href="http://www.lesechos.fr/economie-politique/france/actu/020895911845.htm?xtor=RSS-2059">http://www.lesechos.fr/economie-politique/france/actu/020895911845.htm?xtor=RSS-2059</a>. Bard and Delaygue have shown that Vincent Courtillot graphs and deductions he was basing his theories upon were full of mistakes (what he admitted himself later on). More info here: <a href="http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/home/2008/02/soleil-et-clima.html">http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/home/2008/02/soleil-et-clima.html</a>. Before that, there was already an affair where the guy forgot in his calculations Earth's albedo and the fact is was round ...<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Perhaps his charts of historical temperatures in North America and Europe will also be found to be incorrect, and that we are not largely influenced by Pacific Decadal Oscillation, cosmic ray intensity and Nino events as is presently supposed by some. As he points out, it is the IPCC models which have failed to incorporate clouds, albedo and cosmic ray influences well. Perhaps they also admit to these omissions. I am impressed by scientists who accept corrections and develop their theories. I hope I am able to do the same. I was once convinced of many things about stoves which I now know not to be true. I have not always been successful at communicating my stance. The proof should be found in the products, of course. Really good stoves do not come about by accident.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>I think we should avoid two misconceptions about stovers :<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>- there are stovers who do stoves only to limit climate change. It is a preoccupation of Westerners living in rich countries, often motivated by economic interests. They do not care about poor locals conditions of living. They do not make products suitable to this people.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Agreed. Cell phones have been a really big help though.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>- there are stovers who are on the field but living in their ivory tower. They do not see the big picture (global warming). They are only interested in selling/distributing their stoves to the people, even if they are based on polluting energies (charcoal).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>What do you mean by ‘polluting’ ? Biofuels, especially wood and charcoal, are CO2 neutral. Forests have to be managed of course, but I think you are referring to CO2 as ‘pollution’ like mercury in fish and phosphates from farming in rivers. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-family:"Cambria","serif"'>You can both make user-friendly stoves, and which play a role in addressing climate change issue. <span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>We should make user-friendly stoves that improve all aspects of the economic, social, natural, family, cultural and spiritual environments. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Regards<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Crispin<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=FR style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></body></html>