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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Crispin,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Your call for processed fuels echoes on of our main recommendations to the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Projections by the US Forest Service indicate a substantial increase in demand and price of wood for construction, paper and energy with any scenario (high, low or sustainable development). The degree depends on how quickly developing countries other than China impact global demand. Right now Japanese paper production was reduced by the Tsunami – three paper mills were put out of action - which, combined with increases in Chinese demand, has had a dramatic impact on our wood and wood residues prices on the West Coast of the US. Some wood energy projects that I am working on are no longer economically feasible due to this external demand. A client in Michigan tells a similar story. There is no wood fuel available for his project at an affordable price. These are just early warnings about the impact of fiber and fuel shortages. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Tom<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> stoves-bounces@lists.bioenergylists.org [mailto:stoves-bounces@lists.bioenergylists.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Crispin Pemberton-Pigott<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 22, 2011 6:23 AM<br><b>To:</b> Stoves<br><b>Subject:</b> [Stoves] Anticipating future markets for stoves and fuels<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-CA>Dear Friends<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-CA>One should be aware of the emerging markets in order to plan ahead. The reason for this is that technologies take years to develop, and the same is true for fuel supply chains.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-CA>There is an excellent paper by at <a href="http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/uploads/media/Moerner_Science_environm_sea_level_3_11_Paper_534.pdf">http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/uploads/media/Moerner_Science_environm_sea_level_3_11_Paper_534.pdf</a> on the climate emerging in the next 40 years. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-CA>The implications of his work, and that of many others who have studied this in-depth (Stuiver and Quay, Hoyt and Schatten, Lean, Cliver, Rind, Bard, Bond, Mazzarella, Friis-Christensen and Lassen, Schove, Sanders & Fairbridge, Finkl and others) are that we are presently heading into a De Vries cycle (event). <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-CA>The increasing need for space heating and processed space heating fuels that are customized for dramatically improved stoves opens new opportunities for inventors and market developers.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-CA>In particular the need for processed solid fuels is paramount. They can be stored, shipped by many means of transport and are generally energy dense. The appearance of torrefied wood pellets is an example of such a fuel. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-CA>There are lots of new ideas to think about.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-CA>Regards<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-CA>Crispin<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-CA><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-CA><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></body></html>