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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-CA link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Dear Roger<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Regarding population (and books like The Population Bomb).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>></span><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:red'> </span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:red'>Maybe a condition of life should contain some of the Chinese rule of thumb that one kid and then sterilization. Why should the rest of suffer the same end as those freely choosing to over populate.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:red'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>China is facing an economic collapse (depression) in about the year 2035 that will be directly caused by the very policy you advocate. The current economic calamity that is facing the US was calculated some time ago by Harry S Dent the famous economic student of demographics. If you remove a lot of the people, the economy collapses.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>As the Baby Boomers retire, and the number of people following them is smaller, there are huge gaps in the knowledge and worker base. The current recession will last much longer than is generally assumed and will get a lot worse before it gets better in 2020-2022. There are sound demographic reasons for this. For example, retirement housing in Florida will continue to drop in price because there aren’t enough new retirees to buy them and keep the prices up. The first housing portion to re-boom will be rental premises and first homes for the ‘echo boomers’ who will come into the age groups that take those types of accommodation first.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>A lot is known about this. As people get wealthier they stop having so many children without any encouragement, to the point that rich countries have to offer incentives to get people to have one or two. Russia, Italy, Germany, Singapore and so on. If they cannot maintain their populations the economy will fall into dire straits. Hence, immigration from poorer countries.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>The sales of cooking stoves follows a similar demographic trend. It matters how old the cook is, what they are used to, what fuels they think are cool, what foods they cook (and how). That sort of thing. This list tends to discuss stoves for people with large families, and they are large because they are poor, not poor because they are large.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Analysing the market as we should shows up these demographic-led preferences and trends. It is a very interesting subject and one of the leading exponents of this type of analysis is Harry Dent. He has several books on the subject, mostly about the stock market and how certain companies are better than others according to the phase of the 80 year population cycle.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>At present the business cycle, the commodity cycle, the innovation cycle, the population cycle and indeed other cycles are coinciding in negative territory between now and 2016. It is going to be a major collapse, economically.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Stock firewood, cash under mattress.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Regards<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Crispin<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></body></html>