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<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Hi all,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>I was wondering what happens when all the people
whos lives are saved add their demand on an already stressed environment.
If 10,000 lives are saved that is 10,000 more mouths to feed and 10,000 more
people cutting down forests. That's today, 20 years from now it will be
even more as the saved children begin their own families, and in 40 years even
more. I asked a friend about this and he, being a retired high school
teacher, said that the stoves must be accompanied by education. Any
thought on what education would be good?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Kirk Harris,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Santa Rosa, CA. USA</FONT></DIV>
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<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="FONT: 10pt arial; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=marcpare0@gmail.com href="mailto:marcpare0@gmail.com">Marc-Antoine
Pare</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
title=stoves@lists.bioenergylists.org
href="mailto:stoves@lists.bioenergylists.org">Discussion of biomass cooking
stoves</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, September 02, 2014 11:57
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [Stoves] health impact?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr>
<DIV>Hi everyone,</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>A big confession: having tinkered with stoves for years, I never actually
looked into the numbers of stove health impacts. I'm trying to fix that, and I
hope you can help!</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I mean, yes, I can wave my hands about PM and CO and four million
deaths!</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>But how many deaths (or DALYs) do you avert per stove? Or per 10,000
stoves? Or per 100,000,000?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I thought it would be an easy question to answer, but it's turning out to
be quite tricky to even ballpark.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Here is one interesting source. This is from the very recent webinar on
Kirk Smith's HAPIT tool. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><A
href="http://www.cleancookstoves.org/resources_files/hapit-results-rwanda.pdf">http://www.cleancookstoves.org/resources_files/hapit-results-rwanda.pdf</A><BR></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>This report considers 25,000 households.</DIV>
<DIV>If you provide all of those households a rocket stove, you save only 0.75
lives per year.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>If you take the GACC's target 100,000,000 households, that would
mean</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>0.75/25000*100000000 = <B>3,000 lives saved</B> worldwide
annually.<BR></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>What am I missing there? This seems so small.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Some speculation:</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Kirk Smith mentions in the HAPIT webinar that even a small amount of
PM2.5 is still harmful. Perhaps biomass stoves just don't get the number low
enough?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I think this would fit with the chart in the linked PDF that shows that
stoves only reduce deaths by <5% for indoor air pollution. A few times in
the HAPIT webinar, they mention "a lot of lives are still left on the
table."</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>This also seems to agree with something I found in Christian L'Orange's
dissertation:</DIV>
<DIV><A
href="http://digitool.library.colostate.edu///exlibris/dtl/d3_1/apache_media/L2V4bGlicmlzL2R0bC9kM18xL2FwYWNoZV9tZWRpYS8yNDYyOTQ=.pdf">http://digitool.library.colostate.edu///exlibris/dtl/d3_1/apache_media/L2V4bGlicmlzL2R0bC9kM18xL2FwYWNoZV9tZWRpYS8yNDYyOTQ=.pdf</A><BR></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Figure 33 shows that Envirofit G3300 stoves only have a 3% (or so) impact
on "Adjusted Relative Risk" (of death)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Please do not worry about hurting my feelings in correcting these
numbers. Am I thinking about this the wrong way around? Have I punched the
numbers in incorrectly? </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Also, I would be very interested to read more good papers on health
impacts for stoves. It is all really quite interesting work. I feel bad that I
didn't look at it sooner.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Best,</DIV><BR clear=all>
<DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr>
<DIV>Marc Paré</DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>
<P>
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