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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-CA link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Dear Ron<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Unfortunately there is so little in your comment that is not <i>ad hominem</i> attacks you have given me very little to which I can respond. I will therefore mostly expand on my earlier post.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>You earlier wrote that you did not “believe anything I said below…”. We are all, in the stove development community, fortunate that nothing we do depends on what you believe. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>What is clear, both from your response and Dean’s before it, is that you do not understand the issue I highlighted nor the threats to the world of stove improvement and dissemination. That is unfortunate as I have tried many times to offer direction and advice that will enhance the understanding of risks within the stove community, such as there is an identifiable community.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>As you correctly pointed out I made no statement in support or rejection of either the article, the author’s POV, the source documents or the website you love to vigorously hate. There is no need to infer any POV. I was only bringing to everyone’s attention the fact that there are very large players involved in the political, climate and energy wars and they are starting to take notice of the improved stove development community, its project successes, failures and intentions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>We collectively consider that the intentions of the stove community are to improve the lives of those who cook with solid fuels and reduce their exposure to the products of imperfect combustion, as well as to relieve them of at least some of the workload involved in keeping the stoves fuelled.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Other organisations and forces are <i>much</i> larger than the stove community and far more influential. They have bigger budgets and are playing for far larger stakes. They don’t care at all what Ronal or Dean or Crispin think, whether we are satans or saints. What they care about is ‘winning’. The stove community can easily become a pawn in a much larger game. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>The attention that the publicity being generated now brings is not going to stop at the cute and cuddly intentions of well-meaning garage mechanics and their cooperating supporters. Once they start to look into the ‘deals’ offered by the stove community, they will take sides. The ‘deals’ are the claims of performance and benefit.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Whether or not you admire the Cornwall Alliance (about which I know nothing), it matters a lot if they decide to attack, as the editor of Nature did, the entire stove community and its programmes as a waste of time and money. The fact that such an attack made it to the hallowed pages of Nature (and other journals) is evidence enough that they are taking notice. The attention could just as easily have come from another quarter and contained exactly the same sentiments. We are vulnerable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>We can write protests of innocence and purity of motive to the Editor in the hope that they will give equal space to dissenting views. The record on that at Nature is not encouraging but we will try.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>The point of the link I sent and the message content was to try to bring into sharp focus the reality that once one side or another, whether religious, agnostic, alarmist, realist, skeptical, utopian or luke-warm, discovers that the stove community is inviting people to spend hundreds of millions of dollars promoting stoves that have been selected using unvalidated ‘popular’ performance evaluation methods and standards containing, in part, worthless metrics, they will react opportunistically. They will quickly find that these methods:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing style='margin-left:36.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>-<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Have never been externally reviewed for precision or certified valid for any purpose<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing style='margin-left:36.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>-<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Are widely known not to predict stove performance in use, but money is changing hands based upon their outputs (an ISO Working Group has even been established in an attempt to investigate this failure)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing style='margin-left:36.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>-<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Generate ratings with a low confidence index (high variability)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing style='margin-left:36.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>-<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Identify, as superior, stoves that are frequently rejected by end users for their failure to achieve the claimed benefits<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing style='margin-left:36.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>-<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Are methods that have been rejected by multiple implementing organisations as ‘useless’, ‘worthless’, ‘culturally irrelevant’, ‘[isn’t] a serious testing protocol’ and giving ‘irreproducible results’ <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing style='margin-left:36.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>-<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Make claims for precision far beyond their actual capabilities<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing style='margin-left:36.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>-<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Have been dissected in articles and found wanting from a mathematical and conceptual point of view (i.e. <i>Zhang et al, 2014</i>)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Further, evidence based field assessments show that stoves rated as ‘good’ by these methods are frequently rejected by the end users or provide <a href="http://www.povertyactionlab.org/evaluation/cooking-stoves-indoor-air-pollution-and-respiratory-health-india"><span style='color:black;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:black;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%'><span style='color:black;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:black;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%'>‘little improve<span style='color:black;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:black;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%'>ment in smoke exposure’</span></span></span></a> or provided little <a href="http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDACM099.pdf"><span style='color:black;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:black;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%'><span style='color:black;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:black;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%'>benefit at all</span></span></a> after considerable programme expense. Such programmatic failures have led organisations like USAID (2008) to abandon the field of improved stove.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Be assured, once one of these big players – any of them - discovers that almost the entire world of ‘improved stoves’ is based on ‘hippie science’ and ‘thumb-suck’ suppositions with unsupportable assertions of validity and appropriateness, that it is beset by institutional politics and rivalry and swayed by ideological views on poverty, energy, access, climate, power relationships and business preferences, they will pounce. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>We could easily be caricatured as no-nothing pretenders, based on the numerous failures to date, the inadequacy of our popular and plainly unscientific methods used to date by mainstream initiatives in the West. And that says nothing about our frequent social science failures to intelligently match products to people. I am trying very hard to prevent that. So are several others who realise the programmatic risks we face. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>In this David and Goliath situation and if we are not willing to get our own scientific house in order, they will simply halt everything in the sector until a new set of people and organisations create the worthwhile and necessary tools needed to run this thing properly. The Editorialist given a platform by Nature proposes the elimination of the entire improved biomass stove sector and its replacement by a massive LPG programme like the successful one in Indonesia. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>If political opportunists, for their own reasons, decide to take down the entire US-led stove initiative for no reason other than to score points, it will happen in a flash if it serves their short-run goals. They will only have to point to the conflict-ridden and distracted stove community (in part evidenced by your responses) and the unscientific approaches applied (as evidenced by the methods in popular use up as far as the UNFCCC) as evidence of a need for their immediate intervention. As an un-aligned, independent, senior scientist from Los Alamos National Lab rudely observed, the stove community is a ‘cluster-f**k’.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>The resistance to conducting a proper scientific review of methods, enshrined in the IWA, is appalling, approaching the suicidal. In no other publicly funded sector can one attempt to spend $100,000,000 without using a validated set of definitions, metrics or method of technology rating and selection. We do not want any stove programme receiving a <a href="http://www.taxpayer.net/library/article/golden-fleece-award#Past Golden Fleece Recipients"><span style='color:#00007F;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#00007F;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%'>Golden Fleece Award</span></a>. No amount of arm-waving about haste and need overrides these fundamental prerequisites. Do you realise how substituting politics for science exposes us to accusations of incompetence? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Deriding, insulting, lampooning and marginalising the messenger is not going to delay the inevitable for a single day. That sort of behaviour only confirms the opinion that we are incompetent, that we cannot close ranks nor do valid science together. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>We can and must do better than that. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Sincerely<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNoSpacing><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-color:#1F4E79;mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha:100.0%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Crispin<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></body></html>