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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body bgcolor=white lang=EN-CA link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Dear Paul and All<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>The kerosene subsidy in Nigeria is about $1.1 bn a year, less than half of which goes to actual subsidies on fuel. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Kerosene can be burned extremely cleanly and the heat transfer efficiency is comparable with that of LPG so from an energy point of view there is no difference. LPG is not made from flare gas in Nigeria, though it is possible to do so with a large investment which no one wants to make in the current energy industry climate.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Subsidising very clean burning wood pellet burning stoves would, overall have more benefit than tossing subsidies at gas products for the simple reason that compressed gas is a very inefficient way to move energy around. The containers are energy intensive to make, move and return to source. In many cases public transport will not allow the containers in the vehicle or charge additionally to carry them. In many countries there is aversion to compressed gas because of occasional explosions which is a gas burner issue, not an energy carrier issue, but people blame the fuel anyway. As everyone knows, kerosene is blamed for the combustion efficiency of the stove or lantern, even though very good products have been on the market for many years. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>In the same way, wood and coal are blamed for the poor performance of the combustor into which they are placed. Thus if one agrees that blaming the fuel for the LPG burner dangers is wrong, why should it be different when discussing other fuels? There is nothing magical about LPG. If you can afford to buy it, move it around and return the containers, go ahead.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>It is interesting to consider that the greatest danger to the plans of the LPG lobby is really clean and fuel-efficient kerosene, wood and coal stoves. In other words, the worst nightmare for promoters of LPG is exactly what is entering the market through the concerted efforts of the stove designers: stoves burning alternative fuels as cleanly and efficiently as LPG. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>I recently reported on a wood pellet burning stove that seems to be consistently cleaner (PM) than LPG (as reported by India). That is impressive and is not anticipated by the arguments below. Why then is there no parallel call for such technologies to be popularised? It doesn’t even have to be subsidised, right? Take some of the 550 million tons of biomass from agricultural wastes in India and make them into charcoaled pellets and biomass pellets suitable for good stoves of modern design. Why not? Why should that fuel be wasted while scarce LPG is subsidised to those same farms?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Why is the comparison of LPG to other fuels always based on the stove technologies of 10 or 20 years ago? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>The issue of IAQ and cooking, where it exists, can also be addressed with vents, hoods and chimneys – simple local solutions available from local merchants. There is no requirement to implement ‘subsidised’ solutions for every change in the market. Sometimes it only needs a better idea, or for good ideas to be popularised at low cost – certainly at no long term cost.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>LPG is supply-constrained: not enough bottles, outlets, filling stations, and there is generally a global shortage. It is an industry with a tendency to monopoly tactics with respect to pricing – witness the sudden global ‘shortage’ in mid-2008, which was ‘solved’ by a big jump in price.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>For biomass supply, there was a warning in 1984 in a WB report that Nigeria was about to run out of biomass fuel. Three decades later there are 5 million new households per year and the situation is still “soon there will be no more biomass fuel”. As many will recognise (some won’t) the greening of the Sahel and the southern Sahara since 1983 continues in part from the cyclical (60 year) change in the rainfall and the elevation of CO2 which fertilises all biomass production (an unrecognised benefit). There are no available data sets on the biomass resource base and nothing at all is being done to increase the fuelwood supply. It could easily be doubled if that were a priority, and at a low cost. The new biomass could be used to make pellets, for example, at a much lower cost creating, decentralised, job-creating fuel industries.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>The comparison to Indonesia is relevant. The cost to the nation of subsidising LPG is 30% of the turnover. It is many billions of $ that could rather be applied to other development objectives. That money could be used in Nigeria to turn flare gas into LPG, for example, increasing the tight supply.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>I am reflexively suspicious of any call for subsidised LPG from the industry itself, having had to deal with LPG lobbyists when drafting kerosene stove performance standards. Their method was to try to make the kerosene stove requirements as complicated and expensive as possible. When the discussion turned (quite rightly) to having LPG stoves meet the same safety standards as they advocated for kerosene, they quickly disappeared from the process. Interesting.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>The bottom line for fuels and specifically cooking fuels is that each country or province should make policies that most appropriately address the needs and opportunities available at the time. That may include any fuel or processing that is deemed politically, environmentally, socially or economically reasonable. The landscape varies widely, influence by factors that include the recent history of energy carrier subsidies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Sincerely<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Crispin<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Disclosure: None of my work or travel or activities is funded by any oil, gas, wood, coal or other fuel industry or their representatives. I licence the manufacture, on a micro-enterprise scale, of two biomass-burning cooking stoves of my own design, neither of which is intended for burning biomass pellets.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Stovers,<br><br>The message below came from Kirk Smith via his Stove (singular word) ListServ. So I am forwarding it and (later) some other messages of interest about LPG for clean cooking stoves. <br><br>LPG for cookstoves was a point of discussion at the GACC Forum in Ghana last month. Ghana has recently (a few years back) discovered and is using gas deposits. Discussions included lamenting the promotion of a fossil fuel LPG instead of renewable biomass. The counter points include 1) abundant gases that are just being flared (so use them), and 2) that developed countries should not be working against the developing countries utilizing fuels that helped build the West. <br><br>Not an easy or quick resolution. "Stovers" (biomass types, mainly) need to be aware of such alternatives and issues.<br><br>See Kirk's message below with Nigerian kerosene data. and ask yourself: <br>Given that solutions exist (LPG, micro-gasifiers, and more) for the solving of the clean cooking problems of health and more, What numbers of deaths (and other hardships) are inflicted upon one's own people by corrupt government and selfish business interests? <br><br>Paul<br><br><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></p><pre>Doc / Dr TLUD / Prof. Paul S. Anderson, PhD <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Email: <a href="mailto:psanders@ilstu.edu">psanders@ilstu.edu</a> <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Skype: paultlud Phone: +1-309-452-7072<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Website: <a href="http://www.drtlud.com">www.drtlud.com</a><o:p></o:p></pre><div><p class=MsoNormal>On 12/6/2015 1:54 AM, Kirk Smith wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal>I am just returning from nearly a week in Lagos where I gave the keynote address at the Nigeria LP Gas Association annual meeting. (My slides can be downloaded from the website below – see “Talks.) Spent the rest of the time visiting LPG facilities, slum and small-town household kitchens, and the energy people at Lagos University. (I might note that I used personal funds for the travel)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The household fuel situation in Nigeria is quite anomalous by comparison to other West African countries or other parts of the world. For its level of development, it has both a high use of biomass (66% -- see pie chart below) and low LPG use (5%), in spite of being 50% urban and having the 7<sup>th</sup> largest gas reserves of any country. Annual use of LPG, for example, is just about 1 kg per capita, far below the West African average of 4+ even though richer than the average and having more than half of the population of the region, thus driving down the average. It actually exports 85% of the LPG it produces, when there is clearly suppressed demand in the country.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>One reason is the high continued use of kerosene as a cooking fuel – 27%. ( I do not know of a country that today has a higher kero use for cooking, but please let me know of any. Given its size, Nigeria must in any case contain a large percentage of all kero cooking in the world) This is due to a heavy long-term untargeted subsidy for kero and consequent strong entrenchment of special interests that make billions of dollars from it annually. I was told that at least 2 recent presidential elections were “bought” by the kero lobbies. As elsewhere, much or even most of the subsidy benefit actually accrues to special interests and owners of diesel trucks because of diversion. (as most of you know, household kero use has high impacts on health and climate per unit useful energy)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nevertheless, there seems real opportunity for a large-scale expansion of LPG, in two major phases<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>--First to substitute LPG for kerosene following something like the highly successful effort by Indonesia to do so starting in 2007. Like there, it would save the Nigerian gov substantially by eliminating the kero subsidies, which are bad for health, climate, and economy. Monthly LPG costs, unsubsidized, are actually cheaper than subsidized kero If up-front costs can be handled, the recurring costs of LPG are less that kero due to much higher efficiency, even if unsubsidized. Like Indonesia, there would have to be, sometimes painful, accommodation of the special interests, as well as easing the transition by poor households through provision of the first cylinder and stove. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>--Second would be a major expansion of LPG into wood-using areas focusing first in the north where massive deforestation is occurring due to fuel gathering (as well as overpopulation and climate change). See map below. Perhaps somewhat along the lines of targeted subsidies as is happening in India. In this case, there would be a serious carbon benefit with potential international funds to assist.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The optimism that something may happen is not only due to the rising obvious perversity of the current situation, but also that the new gov here, the first to actually directly clamp down on corruption in decades, is giving most people I spoke with renewed hope for turning the country around and is focused on such social programs. They speak of a ~14x (!) increase of LPG demand in 10 years -- from 5 to 50% coverage with a rising population. Ambitious to be sure, but the kind of effort needed.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Another 115 million more people that could have clean fuels before too long!. I might note that even though already the 7<sup>th</sup> most populous country in the world, Nigeria has one of the highest fertility rates and may reach 900 million by 2100 (from ~185 million now) and will be 3<sup>rd</sup> largest in the world by 2050. Thus, a good proportion of the population in the world we most want to protect from household air pollution, babies and pregnant women, will be in Nigeria. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>An even greater incentive to start soon./k<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>p.s. Ethanol is another option as a clean fuel for which Nigeria has special advantages being a major producer of cassava, an excellent renewable source. At present, however, there is not even enough production to cover food needs and thus no capability to expand into fuel. This could change with a concerted program, however, although a difficult case to make in a country with so much domestic gas reserve and rapid population growth requiring more food each year.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>p.p.s, Kero lighting is also widely used because of lack of reliable power in many areas. I was told, however, that rechargeable LED lamps are rapidly replacing kero lamps, but I have not yet seen any data in support.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>------------slides-------------<o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif'>deleted during resending: <br>A. Pie chart with biomass at 56% and LPG at 5 % of Nigerian household energy.<br><br>B. Map of Nigeria showing wood fuel dominating in the northern half of the country.<br><br><o:p></o:p></span></p><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nigeria’s cookfuel situation – very low LPG use in spite of having the 7<sup>th</sup> largest gas reserves in the world. Currently, 40% of gas produced is flared.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><br><br><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>North of the red line, deforestation and desertification are serious in Nigeria due partly to fuelwood harvesting.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><br><br><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>---------------------------<br>Kirk R. Smith, MPH, PhD<br>Professor of Global Environmental Health<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Chair, Graduate Group in Environmental Health Sciences<br>Director of the Global Health and Environment Program<br>School of Public Health<br>747 University Hall<br>University of California<br>Berkeley, California, 94720-7360<br>phone 1-510-643-0793; fax 642-5815<br><a href="mailto:krksmith@berkeley.edu">krksmith@berkeley.edu</a><br><a href="http://www.kirkrsmith.org/">http://www.kirkrsmith.org/</a><br><br><br><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif'><br><br><br><o:p></o:p></span></p><pre>To unsubscribe from this list go to:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="https://calmail.berkeley.edu/manage/list/reminder/stove@lists.berkeley.edu">https://calmail.berkeley.edu/manage/list/reminder/stove@lists.berkeley.edu</a><o:p></o:p></pre></blockquote><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></body></html>