<div><div>A lesson from history shows sometimes industries are rapidly replaced with new technology, sometimes slower. It's not a.case of switching to sustainables. It's a question of what fossil fuels are replaced and how fast. Technology alone can make both categories more competitive. Only sustainable technologies get easier to utilize as fossil fuels get more difficult to extract. </div><div><br/></div><div><font style="color:#333333"><i>Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4G LTE DROID</i></font></div></div><br><br>Paul Anderson <psanders@ilstu.edu> wrote:<br><br>
Dear Phillip, (and I have invited the Biochar Listserv to also
discuss this on their separate Listserv. For them, the previous
messages are found below my message. The discussion refers to the
article at: )<br>
<pre wrap=""><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fos">https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fos</a>
sil-fuels-than-ever/
</pre>
Your comments questioning the <u>impacts</u> of increasing
atmospheric CO2 are well stated. Readers are free to agree or
disagree with you. Only in the future will there ever be the
historical evidence and conclusive proof that you seek, but we and
our grandchildren will all be living through those years, literally
making the history that could drastically alter life on earth.<br>
<br>
However, what is scary about the DOE analysis is that inspite of
increasing concerns about atmospheric CO2, the best indications are
that very significant rises in fossil fuel usage (and CO2 increases)
are likely in spite of the current and forseeable efforts to stop
the rise and even reverse it. <br>
<br>
About 35 years from now (2050) my grandson will be 50 years old, and
MAYBE BY THEN there will be sufficient historical documentation to
show how 300 years (1750 to 2050) were sufficient to massively upset
the climate on Planet Earth. And then it would be evident that at
least the next 50 to 100 years (to 2100 or 2150) would be getting
even worse regardless of whatever efforts could be attempted (or
maybe attempt crazy stuff like launching reflective particles into
the stratosphere to prompt cooling).<br>
<br>
Of course, by then Peak Oil and diminishing oil/natural gas supplies
might be seen as a savior that literally forces the fossil adicts to
change their ways.<br>
<br>
A big part of the increase in usage of fossil fuel is attributed to
the rise in living standards and energy needs of impoverished
people. Their socio-economic advancement SHOULD happen. But the
irony is that the money-focused (business-sickness) interests of the
already wealthy societies actually want those poor societies to
become users of fossil fuels (so that the wealthy can be even
richer).<br>
<br>
That is scary. And the future is scary. We need to have
long-range planning, with some preparations and adjustment. And
action now.<br>
<br>
Paul<br>
<br>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">Doc / Dr TLUD / Prof. Paul S. Anderson, PhD
Email: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:psanders@ilstu.edu">psanders@ilstu.edu</a>
Skype: paultlud Phone: +1-309-452-7072
Website: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="http://www.drtlud.com">www.drtlud.com</a></pre>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 7/18/2016 3:32 AM, Philip Lloyd
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote cite="mid:03be01d1e0ce$fbbe1bc0$f33a5340$@co.za"
type="cite">
<pre wrap="">Dear Mangolazi
Actually it's not scary. We are repeatedly told that a warmer world will be
a more vicious world, but if you go to the data you find two problems:
1. You measure change from some baseline, but for most climate indicators
there are no baselines - we don't really know what the "average" climate
should be, not least because it's changing all the time, so the estimate of
"average" has a large error associated with it. How can you tell what is
abnormal if you have no decent measure of what is normal?
2. The recorded history of extreme events is rarely long enough to give you
a decent estimate of their frequency (and by decent I mean a standard
deviation of less than 10% per century) and totally inadequate to give you
any idea if the rate is changing.
There is some relief from the first problem. If you have lots of good data,
sort of 30-40 years of good weekly average data, then you can detect a trend
with some statistical reliability - I say some, not good! But I have
searched in vain for any relief from the second.
The good news is that it has been warming for around 170 years, and if we
still cannot reliably detect climate changes other than temperature, then
the scariness gets much less.
Yours in confidence - and I don't mean confidentially!
Philip
-----Original Message-----
From: Stoves [<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:stoves-bounces@lists.bioenergylists.org">mailto:stoves-bounces@lists.bioenergylists.org</a>] On Behalf Of
Mangolazi
Sent: Monday, July 18, 2016 2:28 AM
To: Discussion of biomass cooking stoves
Subject: Re: [Stoves] We're Actually Using More Fossil Fuels Than Ever
That's a scary wake-up call less than a year after the Paris climate summit.
Now it's business as usual.
We need to both switch to renewable power fast and also reduce total energy
consumption. The former is relatively easier once governments and
corporations see the money in renewables; the latter is a heck of a lot
harder because it would go against the grain of modern industrial society
and the consumer economy.
Can we live with more localized economies with sustainable, equitable
practices? Will entrenched politics and financial interests allow all that?
On July 17, 2016 12:06:23 PM GMT+08:00, Paul Anderson <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:psanders@ilstu.edu"><psanders@ilstu.edu></a>
wrote:
</pre>
<blockquote type="cite">
<pre wrap="">To every person on Earth, (but most do not care)
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of
Energy published a major report, with some very bad news. See comments
about it in this article:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fos">https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fos</a>
sil-fuels-than-ever/
PaulDoc / Dr TLUD / Prof. Paul S. Anderson, PhD Email:
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:psanders@ilstu.edu">psanders@ilstu.edu</a>
Skype: paultlud Phone: +1-309-452-7072 Website: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="http://www.drtlud.com">www.drtlud.com</a>
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