<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 12 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Tahoma;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Consolas;
panose-1:2 11 6 9 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0cm;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:black;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
pre
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"HTML Preformatted Char";
margin:0cm;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New";
color:black;}
p.MsoAcetate, li.MsoAcetate, div.MsoAcetate
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"Balloon Text Char";
margin:0cm;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:8.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";
color:black;}
span.HTMLPreformattedChar
{mso-style-name:"HTML Preformatted Char";
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"HTML Preformatted";
font-family:Consolas;
color:black;}
span.EmailStyle19
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D;}
span.BalloonTextChar
{mso-style-name:"Balloon Text Char";
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"Balloon Text";
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";
color:black;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;}
@page WordSection1
{size:612.0pt 792.0pt;
margin:72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body bgcolor=white lang=EN-ZA link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Thank you, Paul<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>We have known we were facing a huge increase in CO2 for a long time. India represents the next big surge – if it takes off anything like China we will race through 450ppm. If Africa takes off, 500ppm will soon be there. Thank heavens the effect is logarithmic, and the impacts will slow.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>For a few rays of hope, however, I commend the Bray/von Storch survey of climate scientists. Unlike the Cook et al survey, which did a (probably biased) survey of scientist’s publications, Bray and van Storch used what I think is a very good, neutral set of questions to ask the scientists directly. One of their first questions was” is the climate changing?” – 75% said no doubt. They then asked if human beings were responsible, and in the latest survey 49% said no doubt – 51% had reservations to varying degrees. The easiest access to the report is <a href="https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/bray-and-von-storch-5th-international-survey-climate-scientists-20152016">https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/bray-and-von-storch-5th-international-survey-climate-scientists-20152016</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>There is an interesting problem of relevance to this list – the IEA gives an estimate of fuelwood use (which neither the World Bank nor the BP statistical survey gives), and I think is exceeds the forest sink by a significant margin, i.e. deforestation is real, and those whom we serve are partly responsible. Fuel efficient stoves aren’t completely idiotic!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Kind regards<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Phi;ip. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext'> Stoves [mailto:stoves-bounces@lists.bioenergylists.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Paul Anderson<br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, July 18, 2016 4:48 PM<br><b>To:</b> Discussion of biomass cooking stoves; biochar@yahoogroups.com<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [Stoves] We're Actually Using More Fossil Fuels Than Ever<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Dear Phillip, (and I have invited the Biochar Listserv to also discuss this on their separate Listserv. For them, the previous messages are found below my message. The discussion refers to the article at: )<br><br><o:p></o:p></p><pre><a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fos">https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fos</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>sil-fuels-than-ever/<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><p class=MsoNormal>Your comments questioning the <u>impacts</u> of increasing atmospheric CO2 are well stated. Readers are free to agree or disagree with you. Only in the future will there ever be the historical evidence and conclusive proof that you seek, but we and our grandchildren will all be living through those years, literally making the history that could drastically alter life on earth.<br><br>However, what is scary about the DOE analysis is that inspite of increasing concerns about atmospheric CO2, the best indications are that very significant rises in fossil fuel usage (and CO2 increases) are likely in spite of the current and forseeable efforts to stop the rise and even reverse it. <br><br>About 35 years from now (2050) my grandson will be 50 years old, and MAYBE BY THEN there will be sufficient historical documentation to show how 300 years (1750 to 2050) were sufficient to massively upset the climate on Planet Earth. And then it would be evident that at least the next 50 to 100 years (to 2100 or 2150) would be getting even worse regardless of whatever efforts could be attempted (or maybe attempt crazy stuff like launching reflective particles into the stratosphere to prompt cooling).<br><br>Of course, by then Peak Oil and diminishing oil/natural gas supplies might be seen as a savior that literally forces the fossil adicts to change their ways.<br><br>A big part of the increase in usage of fossil fuel is attributed to the rise in living standards and energy needs of impoverished people. Their socio-economic advancement SHOULD happen. But the irony is that the money-focused (business-sickness) interests of the already wealthy societies actually want those poor societies to become users of fossil fuels (so that the wealthy can be even richer).<br><br>That is scary. And the future is scary. We need to have long-range planning, with some preparations and adjustment. And action now.<br><br>Paul<br><br><br><o:p></o:p></p><pre>Doc / Dr TLUD / Prof. Paul S. Anderson, PhD<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Email: <a href="mailto:psanders@ilstu.edu">psanders@ilstu.edu</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Skype: paultlud Phone: +1-309-452-7072<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Website: <a href="http://www.drtlud.com">www.drtlud.com</a><o:p></o:p></pre><div><p class=MsoNormal>On 7/18/2016 3:32 AM, Philip Lloyd wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><pre>Dear Mangolazi<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Actually it's not scary. We are repeatedly told that a warmer world will be<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>a more vicious world, but if you go to the data you find two problems:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>1. You measure change from some baseline, but for most climate indicators<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>there are no baselines - we don't really know what the "average" climate<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>should be, not least because it's changing all the time, so the estimate of<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>"average" has a large error associated with it. How can you tell what is<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>abnormal if you have no decent measure of what is normal?<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>2. The recorded history of extreme events is rarely long enough to give you<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>a decent estimate of their frequency (and by decent I mean a standard<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>deviation of less than 10% per century) and totally inadequate to give you<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>any idea if the rate is changing. <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>There is some relief from the first problem. If you have lots of good data,<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>sort of 30-40 years of good weekly average data, then you can detect a trend<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>with some statistical reliability - I say some, not good! But I have<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>searched in vain for any relief from the second.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>The good news is that it has been warming for around 170 years, and if we<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>still cannot reliably detect climate changes other than temperature, then<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>the scariness gets much less.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Yours in confidence - and I don't mean confidentially!<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Philip<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>-----Original Message-----<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>From: Stoves [<a href="mailto:stoves-bounces@lists.bioenergylists.org">mailto:stoves-bounces@lists.bioenergylists.org</a>] On Behalf Of<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Mangolazi<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Sent: Monday, July 18, 2016 2:28 AM<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>To: Discussion of biomass cooking stoves<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Subject: Re: [Stoves] We're Actually Using More Fossil Fuels Than Ever<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>That's a scary wake-up call less than a year after the Paris climate summit.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Now it's business as usual.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>We need to both switch to renewable power fast and also reduce total energy<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>consumption. The former is relatively easier once governments and<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>corporations see the money in renewables; the latter is a heck of a lot<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>harder because it would go against the grain of modern industrial society<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>and the consumer economy.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Can we live with more localized economies with sustainable, equitable<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>practices? Will entrenched politics and financial interests allow all that? <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>On July 17, 2016 12:06:23 PM GMT+08:00, Paul Anderson <a href="mailto:psanders@ilstu.edu"><psanders@ilstu.edu></a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>wrote:<o:p></o:p></pre><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><pre>To every person on Earth, (but most do not care)<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Energy published a major report, with some very bad news. See comments<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>about it in this article:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fos">https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fos</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>sil-fuels-than-ever/<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>PaulDoc / Dr TLUD / Prof. Paul S. Anderson, PhD Email:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="mailto:psanders@ilstu.edu">psanders@ilstu.edu</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Skype: paultlud Phone: +1-309-452-7072 Website: <a href="http://www.drtlud.com">www.drtlud.com</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>-----------------------------------------------------------------------<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>-<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Stoves mailing list<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>to Send a Message to the list, use the email address <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="mailto:stoves@lists.bioenergylists.org">stoves@lists.bioenergylists.org</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>to UNSUBSCRIBE or Change your List Settings use the web page <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="http://lists.bioenergylists.org/mailman/listinfo/stoves_lists.bioenergy">http://lists.bioenergylists.org/mailman/listinfo/stoves_lists.bioenergy</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>lists.org<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>for more Biomass Cooking Stoves, News and Information see our web<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>site:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="http://stoves.bioenergylists.org/">http://stoves.bioenergylists.org/</a><o:p></o:p></pre></blockquote><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Stoves mailing list<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>to Send a Message to the list, use the email address<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="mailto:stoves@lists.bioenergylists.org">stoves@lists.bioenergylists.org</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>to UNSUBSCRIBE or Change your List Settings use the web page<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="http://lists.bioenergylists.org/mailman/listinfo/stoves_lists.bioenergylists">http://lists.bioenergylists.org/mailman/listinfo/stoves_lists.bioenergylists</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>.org<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>for more Biomass Cooking Stoves, News and Information see our web site:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="http://stoves.bioenergylists.org/">http://stoves.bioenergylists.org/</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Stoves mailing list<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>to Send a Message to the list, use the email address<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="mailto:stoves@lists.bioenergylists.org">stoves@lists.bioenergylists.org</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>to UNSUBSCRIBE or Change your List Settings use the web page<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="http://lists.bioenergylists.org/mailman/listinfo/stoves_lists.bioenergylists.org">http://lists.bioenergylists.org/mailman/listinfo/stoves_lists.bioenergylists.org</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>for more Biomass Cooking Stoves, News and Information see our web site:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="http://stoves.bioenergylists.org/">http://stoves.bioenergylists.org/</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre></blockquote><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>