<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8">
</head>
<body lang="en-US" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: initial;">
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
Dear Nikhil</div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<br>
</div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
Indonesia is considered to be, as a whole, sustainable for biomass production and use. After all it is where the EU-mandated bio-diesel addition is produced on oil palm plantations that are created by the mass-burning of the jungle and the mass-destruction
of all habitats in the name of reducing CO2 emissions. </div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<br>
</div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
It boils down to not being able to get CO2 offsets for biomass stove projects. There are of course fuel short areas such as eastern Sumba Island where I have been helping to reduce the requirement of wood to make salt. That has been quite successful: 70% reduction
and still made from locally available materials. </div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<br>
</div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
If we burned the forest in Western Sumba and planted oil palms, we can get carbon credits in Europe for producing biodiesel, but not for reducing wood consumption for indigenous small industries. Such is life. </div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<br>
</div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
While it is general knowledge that the GBD numbers are hocus pocus and intended only to guide national policy, it seems to be gaining credence as a source of 'facts'. In don't think it is clear that there are facts 'behind' the GBD but the rest is the result
of assumptions and estimations and negotiations between interested parties (vested interests).</div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<br>
</div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
What is remarkable about the WHO's modeling, as presented, is the claim to calculate individual impact from opinions emerging from GBD outputs that are qualified in their self-descriptions (the GBD self-descriptions) as not being applicable to individuals.
We are still waiting to be shown how this miracle is achieved because it is specifically ruled out by other committees of the WHO. </div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<br>
</div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
"<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: initial;">Would you say the WHO/EPA modeling would help improve on the methods and effectiveness of subsidies so that this CSI project - 25 million is the largest target I have known to date - can be scaled up or
replicated ten times over in the next five to ten years?"</span></div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: initial;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: initial;">No.</span></div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: initial;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: initial;">It is modeling something that can't be relevant to the selection criteria. There are two methods available: direct exposure measurement, with personal monitors, and the modeling. We know the method used
in the models fails conceptually because it is trying to estimate the effect on an individual using as inputs the outputs of national population statistics. Direct measurements bypasses all the assumptions - completely - accommodating cultural behaviours such
as leaving the room during ignition when the smoke is bad. The models assume people are stupid. </span></div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: initial;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: initial;">Today we are testing a stove that doesn't have different emissions based on the fuel. This is a direct challenge to those who say a fuel is 'clean' or 'dirty'. All the fuels have the same emissions. Ha ha!
Cat, meet pigeons. </span></div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: initial;"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: initial; text-align: initial;">Best wishes </span></div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: initial; text-align: initial;">Crispin
</span></div>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
</div>
<br>
<div>
<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<div class="x_gmail_signature">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div><span style="font-size:12.8px">Crispin: <br>
<br>
Thank you for this excerpt. I also looked up </span><a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/838501468189549922/pdf/97846-BRI-PUBLIC-Box391491B-LW46-OKR.pdf">Results-Based Financing to Promote Clean Stoves:Initial Lessons from Pilots in China and
Indonesia</a>. That Indonesia regions under the projects were judged to have "abundant biomass" and the country did not have a history - like India's "Up in Smoke" - of biomass stoves programs just might make this intervention intellectually enriching. <span style="font-size:12.8px"><br>
<br>
I always like intervention-based research - compared to GBD hocus-pocus - and I am also fond of subsidies. Some colleagues and I struggled with a comparable instance - promotion of pico-PV products (solar "lanterns" but rather battery-chargers for a variety
of battery appliances). I did not get a chance to see the ideas through, but have been thinking for several years on effective subsidy methods and M&E tests for this problem of market transformation for cooking and heating systems for the poor (in and around
households). <br>
<br>
I worked on an LPG strategy - for cooking as well as lighting (LPG lanterns were coming in the market then) - for back 30 years ago (exactly). A senior consultant - an amazing all-round policymaker, from nuclear to renewables - challenged me with a tough question,
"If I am the finance minister, is it better to subsidize kerosene, LPG, or electrification?" It was one of the "learning moments" of my career. <br>
<br>
But it was also then that I had done some market segmentation - by geography and demographics, delivered cost of fuels, and between lighting and cooking. (Electricity is the most versatile, LPG less so, and biomass iffy and shaky as far as government support
goes. Even coal is easier to handle from budgeting and regulatory perspectives than biomass, priests of the "biomass stoves" notwithstanding.) <br>
<br>
** <br>
<br>
Now a question (for you and others who are interested):<br>
<br>
Would you say the WHO/EPA modeling would help improve on the methods and effectiveness of subsidies so that this CSI project - 25 million is the largest target I have known to date - can be scaled up or replicated ten times over in the next five to ten years?
(It takes five years to get a large project started and five more years to implement and learn from it.) <br>
<br>
I remain skeptical. Indeed I think it's a mix of insanity, folly, deception, and faith - or plain error, as logicians and theologians will argue - to look at lab testing for water boiling without regard to all the diversity, distributions (statistical variations)
in parameters, and preferences. <br>
<br>
"</span><span style="font-size:12.8px">The </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">key was to understand consumer preferences and adoption patterns and to </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">convince suppliers of the need to design clean stoves that met these </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">preferences
rather than focusing on supply-side approaches to develop the </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">market."<br>
<br>
A breath of fresh air. Compared to the WHO/EPA smoke in the ISO exercise. </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">I know I am being "negative". It is immoral to be positive about what is quite likely a huge distraction for the sake of creating spurious quantification. </span><span style="font-size:12.8px"><br>
<br>
I am willing and prepared to be convinced otherwise. For now, it seems to me that ignoring key variables is wilful ignorance, a requirement for pretense of knowledge. <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Nikhil</span></div>
<div><span style="font-size:12.8px"><br>
</span></div>
<div><span style="font-size:12.8px"><br>
</span></div>
<div><span style="font-size:12.8px"><br>
</span></div>
<div><span style="font-size:12.8px"><br>
</span></div>
<div><span style="font-size:12.8px"><br>
</span></div>
<div><span style="font-size:12.8px"><br>
</span></div>
<div><span style="font-size:12.8px">-------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br>
<br>
Message: 9</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2016 00:38:04 +0800</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">From: Crispin Pemberton-Pigott <</span><a href="mailto:crispinpigott@outlook.com" style="font-size:12.8px">crispinpigott@outlook.com</a><span style="font-size:12.8px">></span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">To: "Stoves" <</span><a href="mailto:stoves@lists.bioenergylists.org" style="font-size:12.8px">stoves@lists.bioenergylists.<wbr>org</a><span style="font-size:12.8px">></span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">Subject: [Stoves] Indonesia Clean Cooking: ESMAP Supports Innovative</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px"> Approaches to Build the Local Cookstoves Market, Helps Increase Access</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">Message-ID: <COL402-</span><wbr style="font-size:12.8px"><span style="font-size:12.8px">EAS128E044B4A0578D7C29DCCBB1C8</span><wbr style="font-size:12.8px"><span style="font-size:12.8px">0@phx.gbl></span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">H/T L Durix</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">Dear Friends</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">Here is a report on the CSI-Indonesia stove project</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<a href="https://www.esmap.org/node/57286" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" style="font-size:12.8px">https://www.esmap.org/node/<wbr>57286</a><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">The ESMAP story in the E-bulletin provides a broad overview of the work done </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">over the last few years under the CSI. ESMAP is World-Bank based trust fund </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">and
partnership focusing on the energy sector.</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">"Working with the Government of Indonesia, the World Bank launched the </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">Indonesia Clean Stove Initiative (Indonesia CSI) in early 2012, which </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">focused on
the 25 million households that had not converted to LPG. One of </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">the program's goals was to create a thriving market for clean cookstoves, </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">something that previous programs implemented
by NGOs and donors had failed </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">to do because they lacked scale and did little to involve the private </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">sector. While the CSI took into account known barriers, such as lack of </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">consumer
awareness of available products, affordability of stoves, and weak </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">retail and institutional capacity, it also found that other sociocultural </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">factors, such as gender dimensions, cooking
skills, type of foods cooked and </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">others, added more complexity to the decision to adopt clean cookstoves. The </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">key was to understand consumer preferences and adoption patterns and to </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">convince
suppliers of the need to design clean stoves that met these</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">preferences rather than focusing on supply-side approaches to develop the </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">market."</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">"Efforts in these two provinces focused on three key components:</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">An innovative stove subsidy approach. In order for the government to provide </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">market subsidies, cookstoves must meet pre-defined quality criteria. </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">Incentives
for suppliers are intended to motivate them to produce </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">appropriately designed stoves, build enough stock to satisfy demand, and </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">promote continued adoption and distribution of stoves.</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">Innovative stove testing. Information from social and gender research was </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">combined with technical data on stoves to develop stove testing methodology. </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">The
combination of sociocultural and technical dimensions of clean cooking </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">in the testing provides more representative results and leads to better </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">decisions. <br>
</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">* A market-based approach. While subsidies are provided to support </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">the market, incentives (e.g., making funding available based on stove </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">performance)
are used to push the private sector to invest along the entire </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">value chain and carry some of the risks related to the adoption of </span><span style="font-size:12.8px">products."</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">+++++++++</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">Regards</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<br style="font-size:12.8px">
<span style="font-size:12.8px">Crispin</span><br style="font-size:12.8px">
<font face="georgia, serif">----------------------------------------------------<br>
Nikhil Desai</font></div>
<div><font face="georgia, serif">(US +1) 202-568-5831<br>
<i>Skype: nikhildesai888</i><br>
</font><br>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body>
</html>