<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div class="">List cc Crispin and Nikhil:</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>Looks like another dreary day and night. Sigh. Before addressing the places where my name appears below, I first have to work on completing last night’s response to Nikhil.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>What I see below are two stove “experts” - saying that those dealing with the health aspects of stoves are doing it all wrong. But the good news is that we are talking about stoves finally. I will try to explain tomorrow why their following exchange makes no sense. (and I suppose there will be another half dozen messages by then on this topic - as happened on the one I am going to). </div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>I hope those interested in this ongoing health topic will go back and read an exchange between Nikhil and myself in September. <a href="http://lists.bioenergylists.org/pipermail/stoves_lists.bioenergylists.org/2016-September/012166.html" class="">http://lists.bioenergylists.org/pipermail/stoves_lists.bioenergylists.org/2016-September/012166.html</a> That older message strongly relates to this new set below.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>To read the following exchanges you need these further explanations:</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>DALY and ADALY (respectively in years and $) are many places below, but a simple start is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disability-adjusted_life_year" class="">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disability-adjusted_life_year</a> . I encourage all readers to decide if these are valid units - and if not what should replace them. Nikhil says they are bogus numbers</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>WHO = World Health Organization; they sponsored a webinar featuring Dr. Michael Johnson - who developed a nice model disparaged (above) by Nikhil. I believe some of the failure to see large health effects in the other thread we are talking about is contained in Michael’s modeling. The particular webinar with Dr. Johnson is saved at <a href="http://www.pciaonline.org/webinars" class="">http://www.pciaonline.org/webinars</a> (Thanks to the folks maintaining this older work.)</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span><a href="http://www.who.int/indoorair/guidelines/hhfc/recommendation_3/en/" class="">http://www.who.int/indoorair/guidelines/hhfc/recommendation_3/en/</a> explains why NOT to use coal as a fuel (this re a topic raised in the exchange below)</div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>IWA is explained at <a href="http://cleancookstoves.org/technology-and-fuels/standards/iwa-tiers-of-performance.html" class="">http://cleancookstoves.org/technology-and-fuels/standards/iwa-tiers-of-performance.html</a></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>GBD = Global Burden of Disease; see <a href="http://thelancet.com/gbd" class="">http://thelancet.com/gbd</a></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>IER= Integrated Exposure Response <a href="http://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/AAP_BoD_methods_March2014.pdf" class="">http://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/AAP_BoD_methods_March2014.pdf</a></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">I am only a beginner (and expect to stay that way) on this part of stove science. I suggest the task of this list’s members is to decide whether Nikhil and Crispin are better authorities on the topic of this exchange than the cites above. Everyone is welcome to trust Nikhil and Crispin on these matters, but I tend to trust the stove side of all this presented by Prof. Kirk Smith of UC-Berkeley - who I believe would not agree with much of their below exchange. See <a href="http://static.squarespace.com/static/53856e1ee4b00c6f1fc1f602/538570c1e4b071a53f15e518/538570d9e4b071a53f15e9cc/1401254105672/DFID-SE4.pdf?format=original" class="">http://static.squarespace.com/static/53856e1ee4b00c6f1fc1f602/538570c1e4b071a53f15e518/538570d9e4b071a53f15e9cc/1401254105672/DFID-SE4.pdf?format=original</a></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>This graph from about 20% through the Ppt is key to our stove work. I am now checking whether it likely that any stove (likely to be a TLUD) can get to the WHO-desired 10 ug/m3 (without a chimney). Anyone know?</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><img apple-inline="yes" id="9FD0C571-8614-4AFF-A213-1D4C8B05A4C2" height="239" width="320" apple-width="yes" apple-height="yes" src="cid:907535F8-C595-4CCA-9775-7C901AAEC63D" class=""></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span></div><div class="">Ron</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><br class=""><div><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Dec 8, 2016, at 11:17 AM, Crispin Pemberton-Pigott <<a href="mailto:crispinpigott@outlook.com" class="">crispinpigott@outlook.com</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div class=""><div class="WordSection1" style="page: WordSection1; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Dear Nikhil<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><b class=""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">></span></b>I take it you are setting for me an example of sane, measured, respectful analysis of the "stoves and health" claims and counterclaims. <br class=""><br class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">I can’t set you up – you have been there for years without any intro from me.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><br class="">>I tried to explain the phoniness of WHO "solid fuels use" database or "emissions database".<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">There are serious problems with this matter going back to before the IWA meeting. There were foundational errors that I think the students involved, at the time, did not realise were errors. They had been led down the garden path a bit by earlier, widely repeated and improper claims that ‘fuels have emissions’, that there were ‘clean fuels and dirty fuels’, that fuels had ‘a combustion efficiency’ and that the GBD meant something about an individual’s health risk.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">This last error is what drives the whole nonsense about declaring an individual stove user’s life expectancy to be lengthened a little by switching to a cleaner stove, or even longer by switching to LPG. That is a linearity in that claim: less smoke guarantees a longer life. That is the essence of the claim.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Maybe it is true. It is not provable for every individual. Maybe it doesn’t have to be. What is provably false is the claim that a GBD ‘number’ can be turned into a codified risk reduction and life extension for a particular intervention. There is a mania sweeping the funding community hoping to “monetize DALY’s”. That would require calculating the averted DALY’s and assessing a value on each averted disability adjusted life year.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Monetizing DALY’s requires firmly tying smoke exposure to specific diseases or sets of diseases. These had been assume before. Trying to nail it down to specifics requires large scale medical observations. That is, as you pointed out earlier, quite different from guessing that smoke aggravates asthma or turns a cold into pneumonia.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class="">>(I did review their Reviews, and started writing, but sometimes couldn't stop laughing, and sometimes got too irritated to continue.) I also tried to explain the phoniness of EPA's PM2.5 approach - the assumption of equitoxicity in particular. I then laid out the case against use of IER to invent "relative risk" estimates. <br class=""><br class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">The problems/dysfunctions of IER’s are well documented, perhaps not well known. There is a lot of guessing buried inside. In the back corridors both IER’s and DALY’s are laughed at, meaning, not believed to be ‘real’. That doesn’t mean people won’t take them seriously, but I don’t think there is much belief they represent something real.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><br class="">>And abuse of all such fiction, passing the pseudo-science off as an advance. <br class=""><br class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Well, there is the question: do those doing the ‘passing off’ believe they are real or not? If it can be dressed up a bit, will money flow?<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><br class="">>But that - in the eyes of Ron - is sacrilege. Rant. Animosity.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br class=""><br class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">He made his opinion very clear. He did not however present any evidence or opinion that there is something real, valid, substantial, factual, supporting the idea that there is a clear link between stove smoke and specific diseases or the shortening of lives by calculable amounts.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class="">>Ron has enjoyed the luxuries of stove science while some 400 million poor people have died prematurely in the last 30 years.<br class=""><br class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">They did, according to the standard definition (apparently now popular) that all people should have lived to be 86 and that anyone who dies before that dies ‘prematurely’. Causes for that prematurity have been assigned, and PM2.5 is one of the ‘causes’ assigned its due proportion.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><br class="">>The poor must not have any great expectations. <br class=""><br class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">If they look over the list of how they are supposedly dying, I think their reaction will be great expectorations.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><br class="">>I am happy to be a heretic. How can you not be one? <o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Sorry, there is nothing heretical about your position. Scientific assessments and methods are canonical. The heretics are those who eschew them. The modeling of exposure in kitchens (which is available on line – you can download the WHO committee notes) is downright humorous. I say that because when I describe it to experts they all laugh.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Regards<br class="">Crispin<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div></div></div><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; 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