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Dear Nikhil</div>
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<span style="line-height:initial">>Please let us know which document of WHO says that HAP "kills".</span><span style="line-height:initial"> </span></div>
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<span style="line-height:initial">You don't ask simple questions. Ok I'll have a look. It was paper not from the usual suspects and cited the WHO saying that which surprised me. The source document really did say that. Usually of course, it says 'premature
deaths' without qualifying it with a note that it is an estimate, not a count. </span></div>
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<span style="line-height:initial">Anyone else see a WHO claim along the same line?</span></div>
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<span style="line-height:initial">Regards </span></div>
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<span style="line-height:initial">Crispin </span></div>
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<div dir="ltr">Crispin: <br>
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Just a coincidence that your post reminded me of a case connecting workplace sexual harassment of young women and cookstove emissions. <br>
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Why of course, I am thinking of the economist R. K. Pachauri, formerly of Teri, The Energy Research Institute in New Delhi and of the IPCC. It was via Teri that the first formal study of Indian indoor air pollution from solid fuel cookstoves began, in early
1983. Clean Cooking Forum 2017 is being held not too far from where it all started then. <br>
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Thinking of your grotesque analogy, I guess physical violence leads to long-term trauma for the survivors, a mental health issue. A co-damage if you will.
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In the WHO claims on HAP, there is a mental violence done by abuse of science. <br>
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In each case, what happens behind the doors is kept unspoken. That is a societal cost of putting up with conceit and deceit of the violators. <br>
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Please let us know which document of WHO says that HAP "kills". I will post two very short WHO statements (3-4 pages each) on HAP BOD methods and results, and also quote from a Kirk Smith paper about how the GBD attributable deaths rose in numbers. (I quoted
from GBD 2016 that HAP attributable deaths have now gone down from 2000 to 2016). <br>
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On claims like "kills" or the 2014 WHO document on HFC "guidelines" interfering with stove performance metrics and protocols, you could request your national government to take the matter to WHO Director General to complain that WHO has exceeded its remit and
it has issued misleading public health statements. <br>
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Nikhil <br>
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PS: There is a WSJ front page story about a startup making false claims - <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/outcome-a-hot-tech-startup-misled-advertisers-with-manipulated-information-sources-say-1507834627">
Outcome, a Hot Tech Startup, Misled Advertisers With Manipulated Information, Sources Say</a> Rolfe Winkler 13 October 2017. Arguendo, the technology was aimed to "nudge" (term from the new Nobel economist Richard Thaler) patients waiting in doctors' offices
to a the drug that pharma companies paid Outcome to market via televisions in selected doctors' offices. I wonder if Outcome should have instead sold aDALYs from nudging. <br>
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<div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Oct 13, 2017 at 7:47 PM, Crispin Pemberton-Pigott
<span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:crispinpigott@outlook.com" target="_blank">crispinpigott@outlook.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
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Dear Tom</div>
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I don't want to contradict either of you on the various interpretations but I would like to check something with you, as it is mere opinion:</div>
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<span style="line-height:initial; font-family:Calibri,sans-serif; font-size:18px">"</span><span style="line-height:initial; font-size:10pt; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; color:rgb(38,38,38)">According to the World Health Organization, household air pollution
from cooking kills over 4 million people every year and sickens millions more."</span></div>
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Do think think the average reader of that quote realises that the quote should be:</div>
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<span style="line-height:initial; font-family:Calibri,sans-serif; font-size:18px">"</span><span style="line-height:initial; font-size:10pt; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; color:rgb(38,38,38)">According to the World Health Organization, household air pollution
from cooking contributes to the premature death of over 4 million people every year and sickens millions more."</span></div>
ý<span style="color:rgb(31,73,125); font-family:Calibri,"Slate Pro",sans-serif,sans-serif"></span>
<div><span style="color:rgb(31,73,125); font-family:Calibri,"Slate Pro",sans-serif,sans-serif">There is ýonly one occurrence I can find in the WHO documents that says 'kills' and it misquotes another WHO document that says 'premature deaths'. </span></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><br>
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<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif">The 'kills' argument leads to [multiple cites] things ýlike, 'cooking kills x-many women per day' and 'since we have been talking in this meeting y-many women and children have died
from cooking smoke'.</font></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><br>
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<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif">The abuse of statistics is universal but I see nothing wrong with stating problems as they are, in a context, with realistic plans and expectations, and competent implementation of
appropriate solutions. ýThat's just me. Maybe I am not 'Hollywood' enough. </font></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><br>
</font></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif">The 'creation of memes' centered on headline-grabbing alarm and calamity-mongering is a major distraction. I am saying
<i>nothing</i><span> against the central proposition about smoke and health. My father died from cigarette-induced lung cancer. Does that qualify me to make emotional appeals for lower performance tier target values? No.</span></font></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span><br>
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<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span>There is a popular story in the press right now that surely no one can miss. It is that in Hollywood there is a serious problem of sexual violence against women who have to leave
their homes daily to earn a living, or at least make the attempt. Shall we stovers propose that if these women and girls were provided with a commercial quality stove, pot and training to make jam, and the opportunity to sell through a cooperative store, the
number of these assaults would be reduced? This seems to be a good proposal. ýThere are lots of people around Waterloo who know how to make jam. </span></font></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span><br>
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<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span>The number of exposures to violence could be reduced if these women at least had a coffee maker because a lot of these attacks apparently start in a coffee shop. We have a responsibility
to protect those vulnerable women ýwho are only in Hollywood because of a lack of opportunities in the rest of the country. Some of them were already fleeing violence at home. </span></font></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span><br>
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<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span>Please send $145 for each women you want me to save. I'll give them the kind that makes good cappuccinos. ýThey like them (it's cultural).</span></font></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span><br>
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<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span>ýThis is the quality of argument that is being used to raise funding. There is a well-established correlation between young girls in Hollywood meeting producers for a drink and
sexual violence. Surely a cooking device of some kind is the solution. </span></font></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span><br>
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<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span>Two more things:
</span></font></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span><br>
</span></font></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span>The 'all PM2.5 causes illness and or death' is based on an
<i>argumentum ad ignorantium</i><span> meaning proof from ignorance: 'all PM2.5 is equally toxic because we have not proven that it isn't.' That is the founding claim (and wording, paraphrased) of the EPA's regulations which serves as the basis for the WHO's
calculations. Nikhil traced that to source. </span></span></font></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span><br>
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<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span>ýThe Kyrgyzstan winter stove pilot proved beyond doubt that getting the smoke outside, alternatively not making as much
<i>and</i><span> getting it outside, reduces personal exposure, a conclusion reached without modeling any kitchens or dispersion. It also showed that men have higher exposure to PM2.5 than either children or women and benefitted the most from the improved stoves
and installations. </span></span></font></div>
<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span><span><br>
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<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif"><span><span>The inference here is that there is a lot more going on in Hollywood than we supposed. ýDetails available in installments at the checkout till in your favourite store. </span></span></font></div>
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<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif">Regards
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<div><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif">ýCrispin <br>
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<div class="gmail-m_4235247464460279257WordSection1"><span class="gmail-">
<p>Nikhil,</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">You complain that there is no demonstrated causality between emissions metrics (HAPS, PM2.5) and mortality and argue that therefore a stoves program shouldn’t be based on models and estimates of mortality. For many years the doctors in
this community have advocated for more physiological studies. Direct causes are difficult to get from death records. For example, my father’s death certificate lists a cause that was the consequence of the treatment rather than the cancer that he suffered
from so he might not show up in a cancer statistic. I do know that wherever I travel people in industry and in government are concerned about PM 2.5 levels from any combustion source. Real or imaginary a relationship is assumed and PM 2.5 is regulated. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The stove policies and programs are based on a strong statistical correlation between PM 2.5 and reported mortality due to respiratory or cardiovascular causes. That correlation has been validated for some developed and developing countries.
(Every study I have seen cautions about the shortcomings of the statistics but the correlations are strong.) If I were a policymaker I would find enough justification in the statistical correlation to promote healthier environments through programs like improved
cookstoves of all kinds. The estimates that you complain about are likely based on the global rather than local statistics.
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<p class="MsoNormal">You have told us at least weekly for almost a year that you are unhappy with using health indicators to justify improved stoves programs but you have not offered any alternative. (Listening to your complaints has been like listening to
a broken record.) What do you propose? And, what should the stoves community do about it? </p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Tom </p>
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