<div dir="ltr">Crispin: <br><br>I wish I could endorse your view about "attributed". <br><br>Such attribution of identified causes of deaths and disease to risk factors is not in itself a great bother. There can be debates about such attribution, as in economics there has been about sources of growth and attribution to different factors of production or role of technology, human capital as embodied knowledge, etc. since the first large-scale study by Denison (in the 1950s, I think). <br><br>It is in the nature of attributions that assumptions and methods can be debated as new evidence emerges. Why, the Nobel Laureate Angus Deaton and his wife Anne Case identified higher rates of death, in part by startlingly higher rates of suicide, among Whites in the US some three years ago. They don't do detailed modeling for attributability - Deaton is far smarter and wiser than IHME folks - but continue their work (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-update-on-the-two-americas-1510784348">'Two Americas,' Updated</a>, WSJ 19 November 2017), reaching some conclusions on the likely role of education. Case speculates about different types of employment, unstable living relationships, and generally "So those pillars of life - church, family, job - have disappeared for the white working class in a way that it hasn't really been the case for blacks." <br><br>There are limits of quantification and confidence in precise allocation of attribution across risk factors. <br><br>What is galling in the <a href="http://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/FINAL_HAP_AAP_BoD_24March2014.pdf">WHO methods for HAP Global Burden of Disease</a> - which I invite everybody to check out; I just haven't got around to criticizing them because they are so curious - is that there is no factual basis for what they claim as "data". Their "health data", "exposure data", are spurious, not even first level of approximation. <br><br>I know this is a serious charge, but I challenge anybody to show me otherwise. I have spent 40 years on all kinds of statistics - in energy, environment, land, water, farming, health - across the world and am unlikely to have missed anything you and I - or anybody else on this list - would regard as "data". <br><br>I now have a fair idea of the motivations for WHO HAP estimates, but I will reserve my speculations for another time. <br><br>Suffice it to say that if one went along the logical sequence of measuring emission rates, concentrations, exposures/ingestions, disease incidence over lifelong periods for non-communicable diseases - much as was done for cigarette smoking - there is no tenable basis on which WHO generated "data". The assumptions - listed in original documents one has to go down the reference chain - are honestly stated, just that it seems nobody bothered to read the genealogy of indoor air pollution and disease literature or kept mum for protocol and diplomatic reasons. (I do know a few instances of this latter kind.) <br><br>In short, I disagree "that the truth is: that indoor air pollution from stoves has been attributed statistically to being a contributor to a number of premature deaths."<br><br>It is not truth. It is a fiction. There are standards of scientific integrity in such attributability exercises. IHME runs down a numbing list of all WHO procedural requirements that the GBD exercise abide by. I grant all those, but someone has to go down to the brass tacks and measurements in all attributions because otherwise HAP is blamed - and "savior stoves" are conjured - for invalid reasons. <br><br>That is a serious disservice to societies around the world. <br><br>I have a draft of an independent review of WHO's normative functions which takes WHO assertions as I provided links to at face value. I would rather that anybody who has experience in the collection and use of statistics, and statistical inference methods, should examine WHO claims and protest loudly - "This doesn't pass muster." Anything repeated a thousand times becomes more credible, but does not make it the truth. <br><br>Nikhil<br><br><br><br><div class="gmail_extra"><br clear="all"><div><div class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><font face="georgia, serif">------------------------------------------------------------------------<br>Nikhil Desai</font></div><div><span style="font-family:georgia,serif;font-size:small">(US +1) 202 568 5831</span><font face="georgia, serif"><br><i>Skype: nikhildesai888</i><br></font><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On Tue, Nov 28, 2017 at 11:46 AM, Crispin Pemberton-Pigott <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:crispinpigott@outlook.com" target="_blank">crispinpigott@outlook.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Dear Friends<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>“</span>Mr Daniel Wanjohi, the East Africa regional representative at the UN foundation Global Alliance for clean cook stoves, said close to 2,000 people in Uganda die annually as a result of indoor
pollution due to lack of clean cooking solutions.”<br>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span>I believe this statement to be untrue, and that the truth is: that indoor air pollution from stoves has been attributed statistically to being a contributor to a number of premature deaths.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Household indoor pollution causes 19,700 deaths each year the majority of whom are children below five succumbing to pneumonia, mental impairment and cardiovascular disease because negative impacts affect them more than adults because
their organs are not yet fully developed,” Mr Wanjohi said.”<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>This statement, which I presume refers to Uganda only, conflates
<i>impairment</i> with <i>death</i> which is not legitimate. It also gives the impression that cooking stove emissions and household pollution are one and the same thing. I do not believe that Mr Wanjohi conducted any research himself into this matter because
we know that the data needed to categorically support such assertions does not exist. He must be copying something being said by someone else. Who could that be? Why are they changing a ‘statistically attributed contribution to premature deaths’ to ‘causing
deaths’? What are we to do about the other 90% of pollution that does not com from stoves?<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>I cannot see how the misrepresentation of facts helps the case for making highly improved stoves available in developing countries. I would be far better to talk up health-related impacts of smoke
inhalation, but not to take an attribution of impact and turn it into a claim for a cause of death. So far attempts to connect stove smoke inhalation to the medical consequence of pneumonia in children have failed.
<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Regards<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Crispin<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US">From:</span></b><span lang="EN-US"> Stoves [mailto:<a href="mailto:stoves-bounces@lists.bioenergylists.org" target="_blank">stoves-bounces@lists.<wbr>bioenergylists.org</a>]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Nolbert Muhumuza<br>
<b>Sent:</b> 28-Nov-17 10:07<br>
<b>To:</b> Stoves <<a href="mailto:stoves@lists.bioenergylists.org" target="_blank">stoves@lists.bioenergylists.<wbr>org</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> [Stoves] UNBS moves to ban ‘fake’ stove manufacturers.<u></u><u></u></span></p><div><div class="gmail-h5">
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<p class="MsoNormal">I don't think this this story was view by all on this list:<u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.monitor.co.ug%2FBusiness%2FUNBS-moves-to-ban--fake--stove-manufacturers%2F688322-4104988-oamctn%2Findex.html&data=02%7C01%7Ccrispinpigott%40outlook.com%7Ccefff3a6f54a45e376a908d536722929%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636474786301397973&sdata=oNhJK3D%2F5ToPKQJg2eLqgn0MB8uz7QzKzSg2QJoikd4%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank">http://www.monitor.co.ug/<wbr>Business/UNBS-moves-to-ban--<wbr>fake--stove-manufacturers/<wbr>688322-4104988-oamctn/index.<wbr>html</a><u></u><u></u></p>
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<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt"><span style="font-size:9.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">In Service,</span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt"><b><span style="font-size:9.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Nolbert Muhumuza</span></b><u></u><u></u></p>
<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt"><b><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(11,83,148)">Co-Founder & CEO</span></b><u></u><u></u></p>
<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt"><img border="0" id="gmail-m_-7631089812346488799_x0000_i1025" src="https://docs.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B42ekPNoq7loWmZrVVcxWXVodTQ&revid=0B42ekPNoq7loVkRtOStaYlBiUmpIQ0VaQk55aXhGOEZIWU4wPQ"><img border="0" id="gmail-m_-7631089812346488799_x0000_i1026" src="https://drive.google.com/uc?id=0B42ekPNoq7loN1hhTDJzNFpBZ1k&export=download"><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.5pt;color:rgb(204,0,0)">St. Noah Church of Uganda, </span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.5pt;color:rgb(204,0,0)">Makerere Kikoni (Opposite Caltec Academy) </span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt"><span style="font-size:9.5pt;color:rgb(204,0,0)">PO Box 40127, Kampala, Uganda.</span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.5pt;color:rgb(204,0,0)">O: <a href="tel:+256%20751%20292686" value="+256751292686" target="_blank">+256-751-292686</a></span><span style="color:rgb(204,0,0)"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.5pt;color:rgb(204,0,0)">M: <a href="tel:+256%20776%20346724" value="+256776346724" target="_blank">+256-776-346724</a></span><span style="color:rgb(204,0,0)"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.5pt;color:rgb(204,0,0)">Skype: nolbertm<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.5pt;color:rgb(204,0,0)">Web: <a href="https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.awamu.ug%2F&data=02%7C01%7Ccrispinpigott%40outlook.com%7Ccefff3a6f54a45e376a908d536722929%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636474786301397973&sdata=mYB86O9QwxLQB8mwdxfW43ErC6LlU3q%2FraefQ1%2F6WgY%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank">www.awamu.ug</a> <u></u><u></u></span></p>
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