<div dir="ltr">Paul: <br><br>All aggregate statistics have to be considered in their context of i) computation method and ii) the interpretation assigned to the definitions of underlying data. <br><br>That, in a way, is my general complaint against many such estimates and reporting of estimates as "data". <br><br>It is true of things like "markets" and "prices" as of "global mean surface temperature" as of "greenhouse gas emissions" as here "premature deaths", "HAP exposures", and the Integrated Exposure Response. It is only when I dug into the original sources and debates surrounding the concepts in this last instance that even as I railed against them, I was able to forgive those who abuse the concept and derive politically convenient claims from deliberately ignoring what the definitions and the methods are. <br><br>Steve Milloy was an advisor to Scott Pruitt in re-organizing the EPA. Milloy is seen as a rightwing hack because of his attacks on the PM2.5 theology. I hope there is a thorough re-assessment of how PM2.5 - which is after all, only an indicator of pollution, NOT pollution itself - under Pruitt's EPA and the newly reconstituted Science Advisory Board. Tony Cox, Jr. whose review concluded that there is no basis for finding causality between PM2.5 exposures and premature mortality, is one of the new members. <br><br>Milloy's "Where are the bodies?" is tendentious, but he is correct. Nobody can find ONE premature death caused by HAP, and nobody can prove that a switch to LPG from TSF conferred a single DALY. That is the deceit of the Gold Standard Foundation and Sumi Mehta at GACC. <br><br>Did you have a chance to look at the WHO document I gave a link to a couple of days ago on HAP estimates. WHO has a spreadsheet on HAP attributable deaths by country and sex for under-5 and 25+ age groups for 2012. The numbers are given as ranges, which may give an impression that these reflect uncertainty in the otherwise legitimate estimates. That would be an incorrect impression. There is no there there, as the WHO document would itself confirm! <br><br>Where are the bodies dead? Or where are the lives saved from "truly health protective" ISO Tier 4 stoves like gas and electricity? <br><br>Conundrums, conundrums. Life is full of manufactured surprises. Not everybody in public health field takes IHME - Chris Murray, Alan Lopez - and the "pioneers" of PM2.5 theology such as C. Arden Pope (there are some other key figures) seriously. <br><br>But that is off-topic. To me, the constituents of PM2.5 are hugely important, beginning with SO2 and PAHs. EPA chose equitoxicity assumption so it can cook up justification for every new rule after it no longer had "acid rain" monster to market. <br><br><br>Nikhil<br><div class="gmail_extra"><div><div class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><font face="georgia, serif">----------------------------------------- </font></div><div><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Nov 30, 2017 at 9:30 AM, Paul Anderson <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:psanders@ilstu.edu" target="_blank">psanders@ilstu.edu</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div text="#000000" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
Stovers,<br>
<div class="m_3376457437564068126moz-cite-prefix">On 11/30/2017 5:40 AM, Philip Lloyd
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div class="m_3376457437564068126WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d">An
amusing addition to the “air pollution shortens lives”
question:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/28/does-air-pollution-really-shorten-life-spans/" target="_blank">https://wattsupwiththat.com/<wbr>2017/11/28/does-air-pollution-<wbr>really-shorten-life-spans/</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d">Philip
Lloyd</span></p>
</div>
</blockquote>
Quite a long article with graphs and data. "Amusing" is maybe not
the right descriptor. But certainly interesting.<br>
<br>
To get to the point, and letting the article's author make it
clearly, here are the concluding words.: The last line is the
"amusing" one.<br>
<blockquote type="cite">
<p>So why the discrepancy between claims that PM2.5 (or air
pollution more generally) reduces life expectancy, and the
reality that life expectancy has actually increased, and
continues to increase in some of the most polluted cities of the
world despite increases in PM2.5?</p>
<p>A couple of reasons, which are not mutually exclusive, come to
mind:</p>
<ul>
<li>The cumulative direct and indirect effects of economic
development (and fossil fuel use) on life expectancy not only
outweigh the effects of PM2.5, they also enable populations to
reduce PM2.5, once more significant health threats are
reduced.<a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/Users/Anthony/AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/Temporary%20Internet%20Files/Content.IE5/L168EUMU/#_ftn8_4820" name="m_3376457437564068126__ftnref8_4820" target="_blank">[8]</a></li>
<li>Life expectancy is based on data on real births and real
deaths, whereas the mortality effects of PM2.5 are based on
“statistical” deaths or, to use a term currently in vogue,
“fake” deaths.<a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/Users/Anthony/AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/Temporary%20Internet%20Files/Content.IE5/L168EUMU/#_ftn9_4820" name="m_3376457437564068126__ftnref9_4820" target="_blank">[9]</a> As Steve Milloy is fond of
asking, “Where are the bodies?”<a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/Users/Anthony/AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/Temporary%20Internet%20Files/Content.IE5/L168EUMU/#_ftn10_4820" name="m_3376457437564068126__ftnref10_4820" target="_blank">[10]</a></li>
</ul>
<p>In today’s world, claims of air pollution shortening life
expectancy are fake news premised on fake deaths.</p>
</blockquote>
<br>
Paul<br></div></blockquote></div></div></div>