<div dir="ltr">Crispin: <br><br>Don't mix Tesla and charcoal. Not just the scale but basic cost and financing structures. <br><br>You say "<span style="color:windowtext;font-size:12.8px">Bottom line: if you want compete with wood or bulk-produced charcoal, you have to be sure the energy passed along as char is not increasing the need</span><span style="color:windowtext;font-size:12.8px"> </span><span class="gmail-il" style="font-size:12.8px">for</span><span style="color:windowtext;font-size:12.8px"> </span><span style="color:windowtext;font-size:12.8px">raw fuel where that raw fuel is in limited supply. I previously outlined the necessary heat transfer efficiency to achieve fuel parity."<br><br>The only relevant measures of the term "limited supply" for the so-called "renewable fuel" are the marginal cost of supply or the netback value from another use where it is valued higher. If the marginal cost of primary fuel/feedstock rises to a level where a substitute - say, LPG or electricity - is viable, you lose that market. Alternatively, if another user pays more for the fuel, the price will go up and you lose the market. <br><br>This happened with BP/Castrol stoves in India (and in power generation, it seems, with Husk Power). Feedstock price went up, so pellet price went up. Poor households stopped using the Oorja stove. Feedstock price may have gone up because of higher cost of production or because brick kilns and other industries were willing to pay a higher price. (In turn because coal prices had been hiked up. Carbon tax zealots balance the earth on the backs of the poor.) <br><br>Considering that biomass can be interchangeable depending on the type - waste wood, tree branches, crop wastes - the marginal cost of primary supply will vary by location and over time. Then there's the issue of distances between production and transformation (kiln) and then the end-user. Storage and transportation costs can also ruin your market. Which is why even with "rudimentary stoves", people often "stack" -- a woodstove in the yard, a charcoal stove inside the home, and a whole in the ground for using a mix of crop wastes or dung. <br><br>Bottom line: For all the religious faith about "biomass" as "renewable energy", few generalizations can be sustained. <br><br>You say "</span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12.8px">Remove the fuel subsidy, free </span><span class="gmail-il" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12.8px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">stoves</span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12.8px"> or not, </span><span class="gmail-il" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12.8px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">and</span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12.8px"> the number of people using it will plummet." <br></span><span style="color:windowtext;font-size:12.8px"><br>How much and where is the question. If people have found ways of earning extra money from time saved, they might continue using LPG. Or they might switch to making and selling char as extra income. <br><br>I find that the question you refer to begs the question - what it the problem? Why is it that instead of characterizing energy poverty, user needs and desires, defining economic geography, value chains currently existing, the first question is "</span><font size="2" style="font-family:inherit;font-style:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;color:rgb(55,120,199);outline:none"><a href="https://collaboration.worldbank.org/message/16115#16115" style="font-family:inherit;font-style:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;color:rgb(55,120,199);outline:none">For the stove/fuel research and development, what will be the best mechanisms for the public funding support?</a> </font>Gee, what is the R&D required and by whom? <br><br>The World Bank is greatly limited in funding R&D. What mechanisms for public funding support are under consideration for what kind of research where and by whom? THEN one may debate what the "best mechanisms" are. No point asking "What is the best route for pony ride from Mar-a-Lago to Disney World" if you don't know how you would get the pony for how long and whether ponies are allowed on available roads. <br><br>Nikhil <br><div class="gmail_extra"><div><div class="gmail-m_1113256547717291059gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div> </div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On Sun, Dec 3, 2017 at 11:11 PM, Crispin Pemberton-Pigott <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:crispinpigott@outlook.com" target="_blank">crispinpigott@outlook.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
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<div class="gmail-m_1113256547717291059m_3754780271500037919WordSection1">
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span style="color:windowtext">Dear Paul<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext">“</span>I was a co-author on the report (
<a href="https://nam01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.drtlud.com%2Fdeganga2016&data=02%7C01%7Ccrispinpigott%40outlook.com%7C0ac08bbfa2644f1aabad08d53ac1ff9e%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636479527243887104&sdata=9Zg0caSRfgfyC9v6w%2Ftwl2W0W0%2BoQbqaGSaoC5bRTPo%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank">
www.drtlud.com/deganga2016</a> ) about that highly successful pilot study with 11,000 quite satisfied users of TLUD stoves. If acceptance by users is an issue, I refer people to that report and to visit the project areas in West Bengal.”<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext">Would the stoves have received as much acceptance in the absence of the subsidized purchase of the char produced?<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext">Suppose they could only get the local commercial value for the char. Would they keep buying and using the stoves? I assume that at some point this case will come to pass.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext">The Tesla sold well (bookings) until the subsidies were withdrawn after which the orders
<a href="https://www.technocracy.news/index.php/2017/06/12/confirmed-without-government-subsidies-tesla-sales-implode/" target="_blank">
dropped</a> 60%. I do not doubt that the stove cooks and is clean burning and adequate as a cooking device. I helped Sujatha in the only tiny way I could (assessing the air supplied and testing the EA+combustion efficiency).<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext">I have general concerns with batch loaded stoves that cannot be refueled. They work but have clear limitations on how they fit into expected patterns of use. Obviously people change some habits
and they also use different appliances for the other tasks. <u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext">One of the places where I see TLUD’s finding broad acceptance is in Indonesia where they have large quantities of candle nut shells and no local use for it. Whether they will use these stoves
without subsidy is not clear.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext">I like the implementation model whereby the stove is given free and through the sale of fuel, its cost is slowly recovered over time. Finance of a stove (by Stokvel, savings club or other imaginative
cooperative) is often needed for capital purchases. The cost of a stove is not nearly as important as the cost of making payments. In order to create a viable market for LPG stoves, the Indonesian government gave away 40m stove free. Thereafter the fuel was
subsidised. That doesn’t prove ‘LPG is viable’, it just proves it is acceptable at a certain cost to a certain population cohort. Remove the fuel subsidy, free stoves or not, and the number of people using it will plummet.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext">Bottom line: if you want compete with wood or bulk-produced charcoal, you have to be sure the energy passed along as char is not increasing the need for raw fuel where that raw fuel is in limited
supply. I previously outlined the necessary heat transfer efficiency to achieve fuel parity.
<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext">Nikhil has pointed out that fuel efficiency is not
<i>necessarily</i> a condition for acceptance, I have pointed out in my reply today to Yabei Zhang’s
<a href="https://collaboration.worldbank.org/thread/6691?sr=stream" target="_blank">question</a> on accessing public funds for product development that legacy metrics from early stove programs are hard to drop.
<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext">[To comment on that site you have to create an account then log in. If you wish, you can remove and edit old posts and it is also possible to upload documents.]<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span style="color:windowtext">Regards<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span style="color:windowtext">Crispin<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span style="color:windowtext"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="gmail-MsoNormal"><span style="color:windowtext"><u></u> <u> </u></span></p></div></div></blockquote></div></div></div>