<div dir="ltr">Crispin:<br><br>Yes, "<span style="color:rgb(31,73,125);font-family:Calibri,"Slate Pro",sans-serif,sans-serif;font-size:medium;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;float:none;display:inline">If you are going to promote something, promote something that you can get."</span><div class="gmail_extra"><br>Which, for UC-Berkeley and its HAP affiliates, means research grants to cook more PhDs and establish a database for emissions, concentration, exposures and disease for the 50 million or so people who have been killed by assumption. <br><br>Looks like an amazing researchopportunity was missed.<br><br>"
<span style="color:rgb(31,73,125);font-family:Calibri,"Slate Pro",sans-serif,sans-serif;font-size:medium;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;float:none;display:inline">Coal burning small water heating low pressure boilers were removed and replaced with gas fired ones, well ahead of the gas arriving in the pipe. You can guess what happened."</span></div><br>If people died prematurely, a baseline of "death by freezing" could have been established. Then compared to when gas came and also to those who continued to use coal. Private gas companies Prof. Smith cites could collect aDALYs - for just time and per diems - and sell them for subsidies.<br><br>Alas.<br><br>What is significant about Prof. Smith's discoveries now is the one he mentions matter-of-fact-ly - "
<span style="color:rgb(80,0,80);font-size:small;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;float:none;display:inline">the new air pollution control region for the northern plain area". <br></span><br>It is only because of the legal designation such as this - presumably based on air basin modeling over several seasons - that fuel bans and fuel/combustor substitution policies can be designed with a particular goal in mind, say hourly and daily, monthly average pollutant concentrations at particular places. <br><br>Without a reference objective - pollutant concentrations averages for specific locations or regions - fuel bans cannot be said to have environmental health objectives. (Governments have many reasons to spend money and give inauguration photo opportunities and research grants.)<br><br>Prof Smith may be unnecessarily vexed that the mayor who treated him to dinner was unaware of HAP damage. Maybe there is little to bother, in the big scheme of things for a mayor. It's not like Prof. Smith has any exposure and disease incidence data for the relevant cohorts for any length of time. Not, at any rate, for the GBD killings.<br><br>Prof. Smith gets what he expects; when he inspects real people, he discovers how ignorant they are.<br><br>Now about his text on gas pipeline and LPG: these are my guesses:<br><br>a) Usually, gas distribution networks are not developed for new household connections alone, unless the customers are rich enough. Non-household demands - and well-paying at that - carry the bulk of amortization costs. Of course, with money growing on trees, anything is possible.<br><br>b) LPG cylinders may not be suitable for the same kind of heaters as natural gas heaters. I have seen small LPG water heaters in Vanuatu and LPG space heaters for external use in South Africa and here but not for indoor use. They are in the market, but perhaps the risk of fire and incomplete combustion - CO poisoning - is greater with LPG than with piped natural gas and water/space heaters made to use natural gas.<br><br>China has been planning for gas production as well as imports (pipelines, LNG) for decades. (Conversion of domestic city gas plants or blending was being discussed way back in 1993/4 when I worked on China GHG strategy report. See a recent presentation at <a href="https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/7693.pdf">https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/7693.pdf</a>. Prof. Smith need not have been surprised. Rural households are just new additions to piped gas market, and so far, minuscule at the national level. Looks like cities are covered by district heating networks and electricity, only recently switching to gas as more gas is imported. Still, industry, power, and city gas will drive the gas market growth. HAP is an afterthought as it often the case, if at all.<br><br>No comparability to India rural LPG, but then the heating demand is not that important.<br><br>Nikhil<br><br>PS: On Beijing - <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-pollution-beijing/beijings-struggle-against-pollution-will-be-tough-take-time-mayor-idUSKBN1FD0EJ">https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-pollution-beijing/beijings-struggle-against-pollution-will-be-tough-take-time-mayor-idUSKBN1FD0EJ</a><div><br></div><div>Beijing and other cities:<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2123807/eight-northern-chinese-cities-fail-air-quality-targets">https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2123807/eight-northern-chinese-cities-fail-air-quality-targets</a></div><div><br><br><br><br><div class="gmail_extra"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri, Slate Pro, sans-serif, sans-serif" size="3"><br clear="all"></font><div><div class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><font face="georgia, serif">------------------------------------------------------------------------<br>Nikhil Desai</font></div><div><span style="font-family:georgia,serif;font-size:small">(US +1) 202 568 5831</span><font face="georgia, serif"><br><i>Skype: nikhildesai888</i><br></font><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On Sun, Jul 22, 2018 at 3:02 PM, Crispin Pemberton-Pigott <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:crispinpigott@outlook.com" target="_blank">crispinpigott@outlook.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
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Dear Teddy and All</div>
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There seem to be three 'types' of charcoal: harvested to get rid of invasive species or as the result of improper grazing management, sustainable charcoal production as in South Africa and Rwanda, and unsustainable production where, in almost all cases, it
is illegal. </div>
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The legality plays a major part in whether or not it is produced sustainably. If you want to make it destructive and out of control, make it illegal and take away the forest management rights of the local population. If you want sustainable production, legalise
it and put the resource under the control of local communities. <span style="font-size:initial;line-height:initial;text-align:initial"></span></div>
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<span style="font-size:initial;line-height:initial;text-align:initial">With the 'gasification' of China the situation is not analogous, but just as complicated. The banning of raw coal combustion in homes is quite common (not 'coal', 'raw coal'). Conversion
to gas is anticipated and welcomed, but runs ahead of supply, which caused big problems this past winter (again). Coal burning small water heating low pressure boilers were removed and replaced with gas fired ones, we'll ahead of the gas arriving in the pipe.
You can guess what happened. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size:initial;line-height:initial;text-align:initial">If Hebei Province alone converted to gas, it would use 25% of the available supply for the entire country. Do the math. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size:initial;line-height:initial;text-align:initial">So what needs to happen is the adoption of extremely clean burning coal heaters with at least a tiny amount of automation, and possibly the briquetting of the raw coal or treated coal,
so the whole country can have acceptably clean air and stay warm. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size:initial;line-height:initial;text-align:initial">It would be encouraging if those who are aware of these coal burning technologies promoted them instead of supporting the use of gas appliances for which there is no fuel. The alarmist
claims about 'deaths from air pollution' are insufficient to sell 'freezing to death' (F2D) as a choice better than using modern coal burning systems. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size:initial;line-height:initial;text-align:initial">Those promoting gas do not advocate using technologies from the 1890's. Why do they pretend that coal has to be burned that way? They will end up looking pretty silly raging against technologies
that no longer exist. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size:initial;line-height:initial;text-align:initial">As for the legality, it is illegal to burn raw coal in Hebei Province, and 85% of users do. During the assessments of coal burning LPB's for the Hebei Clean Air Program, the cleanest product
identified was a raw coal burning crossdraft stove, cleaner than all semi-coke (treated, 'clean') fuels in all stove products. Obviously, the problem is not the fuel, it is the combustor. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size:initial;line-height:initial;text-align:initial">If you are going to promote something, promote something that you can get. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size:initial;line-height:initial;text-align:initial">Regards </span></div><span class="gmail-HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">
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<span style="font-size:initial;line-height:initial;text-align:initial">Crispin </span></div></font></span><div><div class="gmail-h5">
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<div dir="ltr">Thanks for sharing Paul - always interesting to hear about such large scale projects like this.
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<div>LPG is being pushed along by the Govt. of Kenya recently (<a href="https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kenyanews.go.ke%2Fgovernment-moves-to-avail-affordable-cooking-gas-to-kenyans%2F&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375118770&sdata=eMAsX4GA5G0iwIBDnfYiAZd9E0jiat8lubnDt%2FJG%2FnI%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank">http://www.kenyanews.go.ke/<wbr>government-moves-to-avail-<wbr>affordable-cooking-gas-to-<wbr>kenyans/</a>) albeit
with a few hiccups (<a href="https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessdailyafrica.com%2Fnews%2FKenya-cheap-gas-supply-rural-homes-safety-concerns%2F539546-4570216-miaop7z%2Findex.html&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375118770&sdata=KgDYqCo1ZUcPo6Psey90FsGAnE97XkccaZczGYPRdYk%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank">https://www.<wbr>businessdailyafrica.com/news/<wbr>Kenya-cheap-gas-supply-rural-<wbr>homes-safety-concerns/539546-<wbr>4570216-miaop7z/index.html</a>) it
seems that more and more people are cooking using gas then ever before. Stove stacking though seems to be as alive and well as ever even with the recent charcoal bans here. (and charcoal production, especially for clearing of new agricultural land seems to
be going on as much as always <a href="https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FEastAfricanBiomassEnergyPortal%2Fposts%2F2011692142493297&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375118770&sdata=k7SjqjP9fCE2K2m3YWJpwPGE0Vi92m2mSYiAfRyVnA4%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank">
https://www.facebook.com/<wbr>EastAfricanBiomassEnergyPortal<wbr>/posts/2011692142493297</a>) It has been good to see that there has been more talk then ever before about managing forests better and growing more trees for the future charcoal demand in East Africa as
seen here <a href="https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newvision.co.ug%2Fnew_vision%2Fnews%2F1481795%2Fenvironment-committees-fight-charcoal-burning&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375118770&sdata=EDxVEVkz0ftazdxmNWQUcJeFzQuRWqpqqbnmWSIotCg%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank">https://www.newvision.co.<wbr>ug/new_vision/news/1481795/<wbr>environment-committees-fight-<wbr>charcoal-burning</a> </div>
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<div>Speaking of charcoal in the news, also interesting to see the UK of all places with access to modern cooking methods being in the news for this - ''Is UK barbecue charcoal fuelling global deforestation?<br>
<a href="https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fscience-environment-44880398&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375118770&sdata=XKT2GYXFUn7dF4rmA2%2BZEh8dQx8WngI9jCTdvedOHjI%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/<wbr>science-environment-44880398</a>''<wbr> <br>
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<div class="gmail_quote">On Sun, Jul 22, 2018 at 3:18 PM, Anderson, Paul <span dir="ltr">
<<a href="mailto:psanders@ilstu.edu" target="_blank">psanders@ilstu.edu</a>></span> wrote:<br>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Stovers,<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Below is a message that Kirk Smith sent to his [Stove and Climate] list that I and some others are on. VERY interesting!<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Paul<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Kirk R. SMITH <<a href="mailto:krksmith@berkeley.edu" target="_blank">krksmith@berkeley.edu</a>>
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<b>Sent:</b> Sunday, July 22, 2018 12:34 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> Kirk R. SMITH <<a href="mailto:krksmith@berkeley.edu" target="_blank">krksmith@berkeley.edu</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> [stove and climate] More mind-blowing insights from China<u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I just spent a week in China, repeating again the experience I have had in recent years – everything is changing rapidly and it is nigh impossible to keep up between visits.<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">With PKU colleagues, I visited the Jining area in Shandong Province, some 2.5 hours south of Beijing by fast train (300 km/h). Even though 600 km away, Shandong is in the new air pollution control region for the northern plain area including
Beijing established after the terrible episodes in 2013. As part of a range of new measures to control ambient pollution, they are planning to introduce clean fuels to 80% of all coal/biomass-using households, which total some 1.1 million in the Jining
area, in 3 years. To date, some 70k have had gas (a few electricity) introduced and 160k more are planned before next winter. This is not the rate they need, but they have plans to pick it up. PKU has a project to evaluate less expensive alternatives,
but currently the area mainly hopes to introduce gas and electricity.<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This is actual natural gas, however, not LPG. It was like witnessing something that I had always thought impossible (cows flying perhaps), to see villages with well-made natural gas pipelines supplying everyone – both for heating and cooking.
There must be a density of villages below which it does not pay to put in pipelines, but these villages were kilometers apart. Interestingly, the pipelines are being put in by private companies, but the cost of fuel is subsidized by the government at present.
(We need to understand the economics better, also why LPG does not seem to be part of the program, although available now.) They are already seeing potential constraints on gas supply given the expansion rates being contemplated, but seem to feel that this
can be managed soon.<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">No stacking in evidence according to colleagues, although some households using electricity for heating kept temperatures low last winter (and wore more clothes) because they perceived costs of electricity to be high. A kind of reversal
of the usual practice of the poor having become used to once a year payment for a pile of coal, now see monthly bills as more expensive. Even though, through subsidies on the power, the actual power cost is less. Does not seem to be an issue with the gas.
It should be noted, however, that use of coal is officially illegal now if a village has gas or electric options, although hard to know how well this is enforced.<u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">The mayor hosted us for dinner and waxed enthusiastic about the air pollution control program although complaining a bit that it takes one-third of his time and he continually gets pressure from the central government about progress. Colleagues
say that 10k (yes!) inspectors are now employed in the 26 subregions of the northern plain area by the central government to make sure the air pollution control measures are being taken up.
<u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Ironic to say the least that household solid fuels are targeted because of outdoor air pollution (in Beijing 600 km away, actually) with no recognition of the pollution benefits to households – the mayor, for example, indicated no awareness
of the HAP issue, although noting the social benefits of clean fuels. But probably we should be happy nevertheless – any port in a storm as the English expression goes.<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">What a remarkable change and one, in its way, equal to the massive LPG program in India. /k<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Kirk R. Smith, MPH, PhD <<a href="mailto:krksmith@berkeley.edu" target="_blank">krksmith@berkeley.edu</a>><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Professor of Global Environmental Health<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">University of California Berkeley, 94720-7360 USA<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Director, Collaborative Clean Air Policy Centre, Delhi; <span style="color:rgb(31,73,125)">
</span><a href="https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fccapc.org.in%2F&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375275028&sdata=saAGuCuYzxzW5ofDWZz%2Bw1TYJiJc1akmFgObpxBteDU%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:blue">https://ccapc.org.in/</span></a><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Darbari Seth Block, India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi, 110003<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Delhi cell: (91) 99587 38713<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kirkrsmith.org%2F&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375275028&sdata=Dx5uwu%2Fq9l%2F1dgqGHoqgh1jMkQoJmkKgSXHiBiwA%2F5k%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank">http://www.kirkrsmith.org/</a><span class="gmail-m_8465806615476530257HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><u></u><u></u></font></span></p>
<span class="gmail-m_8465806615476530257HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">
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