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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Dear Ashok<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">You have thankfully used all the correct words – others do not.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Let’s see if I can tackle this as an observer:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">It is indeed, as you say, an estimate. Technically, it is an
<i>attribution</i> based on <i>estimates</i>. There is actually a chain of sequential estimates and attributions:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">The “causal” exposure is estimated, all PM is assumed, without justification and in the presence of blatant contradiction, to be
<i>equitoxic</i> (“in the absence of proof that it is not” – EPA). Premature deaths are not
<i>caused</i>, they are attributed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">There are a couple of approaches taken to get a best approximation: The source emissions are estimated, the dispersion is estimated, the resulting concentrations are estimated, the exposure is estimated, the inhalation
from that exposure is estimated, the absorption in the body is estimated, the Relative Risk (of disease) is estimated, and the disability adjusted live years (prematurity) are estimated from that, but for the whole cohort already dead, not an exposed individual.
There are no actual numbers for anything except the total number of dead who were less than 86 years old when they passed.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Then, failing to understand what lies behind the attributions, numerous writers claim that using a wood stove exposes one to “smoke” that “kills” x-many people per year, not “shortens their lives by an estimated amount”
as per the source reference. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">The confabulation goes on: It is often claimed that the specific user of the stove is the one affected, and that this estimate of the Relative Risk can be reduced
<i>for that particular person</i>, ignoring the fact that the estimate was (in some cases) for a national population cohort based on the WHO’s “allowed” 51 causes of death. Contributions to premature death are assessed by the GBD exercise. In fact there is
a complete misrepresentation happening. The GBD <i>attributions</i> (by public health people) are being treated as medically certificated
<i>causes</i> of death (by medical people). Public Health and Medicine are distinct fields.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Worse, for all of us, is the claim by the WHO and many others, that the root problem is not exposure to the emissions from bad stoves, but to emissions that are inherent in the fuel. This claim is so foolish, and so obviously
incorrect, I for one cannot understand how it is sustained as an argument in a professional environment. If I burn ordinary wood badly, I will produce all manner of toxic results. If I burn it perfectly, I will get none. This is not a complicated reality.
To claim that wood, in fact virtually all solid fuels <i>cannot</i> <i>be burned cleanly</i> is a plain lie, not a statistical lie. How can we base public policy on fundamental untruths?
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In these circumstances I am surprised that someone as experienced as Nikhil can restrain his speech to something printable.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Best regards<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Crispin<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif">Crispin Pemberton-Pigott<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif">Technical advisor to
<a href="http://www.esmap.org/"><span style="color:#0563C1">ESMAP</span></a>, World Bank Washington<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif">International Technical Consultant to WB CSI domestic energy projects in Central Asia<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">P-Member, SABS TC-1054</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif"> (South Africa)</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Registered expert in ISO TC-285: WG1, WG2, WG3, WG4 representing the World Bank<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Adjunct Professor</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif">:</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif">Ministry of Agriculture’s
</span><i><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Key Lab of Clean Production and Utilization of Renewable Energy</span></i><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">,
Ministry of Agriculture, </span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">P. R. China</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif">,
</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">College of Engineering</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif">,
</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">China Agricultural University<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">P. O. Box 50, No. 17 Qinghua Donglu<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Tel: +86-130-7211-3233<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Web:
<a href="http://best.cau.edu.cn/"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none">http://best.cau.edu.cn</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><a href="mailto:crispinpigott@outlook.com"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none">Email</span></a></span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif">
crispinpigott@outlook.com</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><a href="crispinpigott"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none">Skype</span></a></span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif">
crispinpigott<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif">Canadian office +1-519-886-7772<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">++++++++<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Dear Nikhil,<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Many of us are ignorant of the basis of your harsh assessment of WHO estimate. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Can you be more helpful? Can you please point to articles, reports, or blogs, something countering the assessment that attributes 3 to 4 million annual premature deaths to exposure to biomass smoke?<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt">Thanks. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">-- Ashok<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Sent from handheld. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Pls xcuse brvty and tpoys. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><br>
On Jul 29, 2018, at 9:57 AM, Nikhil Desai <<a href="mailto:pienergy2008@gmail.com">pienergy2008@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Dear Ron:<br>
<br>
Re: "<span style="font-size:9.5pt">There is no doubt that this important international stove facility at Berkeley believes in the importance of improving cookstoves for the millions of annual death reasons documented by WHO and others"<br>
<br>
OH YES, there is ALL DOUBT, for anybody with time to examine WHO "documentation". Did you look?<br>
<br>
Keep the faith. Gas is God. (At least when money is God.)<br>
<br>
Nikhil</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Georgia",serif">------------------------------------------------------------------------<br>
Nikhil Desai</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif">(US +1) 202 568 5831</span><span style="font-family:"Georgia",serif"><br>
<i>Skype: nikhildesai888</i></span><o:p></o:p></p>
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