<div dir="ltr"> Full report on energy access progress at
<a href="https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/data/files/download-documents/2019-Tracking%20SDG7-Full%20Report.pdf">https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/data/files/download-documents/2019-Tracking%20SDG7-Full%20Report.pdf</a> . To be presented tomorrow in Vancouver.<br><br>This is the first time I have seen a scenario for 2030 (p. 105) with a specific share for different technologies for cooking by 2030 - Improved Biomass Cookstoves 34%, Gas 26%, LPG and kerosene 26%, electricity 11%, and "other" the remainder. <br><br>The hope is that some 600 million customers await "improved biomass cookstoves" from now out to 2030. (Household size declines with urbanization and even in rural areas, so the classical "3 billion" is a useless number in computing customer potential). <br><br>The disappointment is that nobody is really funding anything toward "improved biomass cookstoves", save some tiny, tiny projects thus far. <br><br>Take heart; market potential for "improved biomass cookstoves" is safe and secure. If only enough "results based finance" could be mobilized for designing local air quality programs where cleaner cooking and heating (all types of customers and appliance sizes, and all locally accessible fuels), then incentivizing the supply chain in business and bureaucracy. <br><br><br><div><img src="cid:ii_jw89sa080" alt="image.png" style="margin-right: 0px;"><br><br><br><br>Whatever the "Improved Biomass Cookstoves" are, including all primary and secondary biomass, they are the types that qualify for "clean cooking solutions". I wonder if IEA checked with Kirk Smith, who claims there are as yet no "truly health protective" biomass stoves for households, and that solid fuel stoves kill by definition. <br><br>Details of this "Sustainable Development Scenario" are with IEA. It is NOT the same as the "New Policies Scenario", so matching the "Clean cooking access rates" and "SDG gap" on the left hand of this chart to the pie chart on the right hand is problematic. <br><br>My suspicion - cynical or pessimistic - is that the "New Policies Scenario" on the left has no biomass cookstoves, improved or otherwise, and that that the 34% on the right hand side refers to some generic biomass cookstove, improved or not (since there is no baseline or efficiency gain target anyway). <br><br>The report does say, "Based on population projections and the current trajectory, around 2.2 billion people will be without access to clean cooking by 2030." After "more than 580 million people would move away from traditional uses of biomass for cooking by 2030."<br><br>Under the UN definition, "less developed regions" will have a population of 7.25 billion people by 2030 (medium projection, UN), 34% of which means 2.5 billion people. The difference between 2.5 billion served by "Improved biomass cookstoves" and 2.2 billion "without access to clean cooking" is puzzling. Essentially IEA is saying that "improved biomass cookstoves" will not qualify as "access to clean cooking". This is ideological hogwash. <br><br>Or that IEA modelers don't know much about "traditional uses of biomass for cooking" and "improved biomass cookstoves". <br><br>It is entirely possible that IEA modeling doesn't amount to beans because it relies on a questionable database (contact me if you want laughs) and ignores "stacking" altogether. Nor do these data say anything about quantities of fuels - biomass, LPG, kerosene, gas, or electricity. IEA knows nothing; I confirmed in 2008/9 and again in 2012. <br><br></div>From the ExSum portion on "clean fuels and technologies for cooking": <br><br><blockquote style="margin:0 0 0 40px;border:none;padding:0px">The share of the global population with access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking increased from 57% [51,
62] in 2010 to 61% [54, 67] in 2017. However, because population growth is outpacing annual growth in access, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, the population without access to clean cooking remains just under 3 billion (figure ES4).
Between 2010 and 2017, the percentage of the population relying on clean cooking solutions grew by an annual
average of 0.5 percentage points [-0.5, 1.6]2
, though annual progress slowed in 2008. During this period, global improvements were driven by gains in the regions of Central and Southern Asia and Eastern and Southeastern Asia,
which posted average annual increases of 1.2 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively. To reach universal clean
cooking targets by 2030 and outpace population growth, the annual average increase in access must rise to 3 percentage points, from the rate of 0.5 percentage points observed between 2010 and 2017. <br>....<br>In most access-deficit regions, the use of wood is steadily declining, but this trend is offset by an increase in charcoal usage, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa. An inverse relationship between kerosene and cleaner gaseous fuels
(liquid petroleum gas, natural gas, and biogas) has also been observed: as kerosene use declines, reliance on cleaner gaseous fuels for cooking increases. The uptake of cleaner fuels remains slow in rural Africa, in large part due to
issues of affordability and supply.
The business as usual pathway will not meet the universal access goal by 2030. Based on the projections of current
and planned policies, the IEA estimates that 2.2 billion people will still be dependent on inefficient and polluting
energy sources for cooking. Most of this population will reside in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. To achieve universal access by 2030, greater use of liquid petroleum gas would be appropriate in urban areas (accounting for an
estimated 92% of new connections) since population density justifies the necessary investment in infrastructure.
<i>Meanwhile, improved biomass cookstoves, which represent 37% of clean cooking solutions, would be particularly
suited for rural or more remote areas</i> " (p. 6. emphasis added)<br><br> Nikhil<br><br></blockquote><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><font face="georgia, serif">------------------------------------------------------------------------<br>Nikhil Desai</font></div><div><span style="font-family:georgia,serif;font-size:small">(US +1) 202 568 5831</span><font face="georgia, serif"><br><i>Skype: nikhildesai888</i><br></font><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><br><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">---------- Forwarded message ---------<br>From: <strong class="gmail_sendername" dir="auto"><a href="mailto:Arthur.CONTEJEAN@iea.org">Arthur.CONTEJEAN@iea.org</a></strong> <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:Arthur.CONTEJEAN@iea.org">Arthur.CONTEJEAN@iea.org</a>></span><br>Date: Thu, May 23, 2019 at 2:29 PM<br>Subject: 2019 Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report<br>To: Climate Change Info Mailing List <<a href="mailto:climate-l@lists.iisd.ca">climate-l@lists.iisd.ca</a>><br></div><br><br>Dear Colleagues,<br>
<br>
It is with great pleasure that we would like to invite you to the presentation of the Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report, which will take place at the 10th Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) in Vancouver from 8:00 to 9:00 on 29th May, in room MR 201.<br>
<br>
The 2019 Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report has just been released today. The report annually reviews progress toward Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 at the global, regional, and country levels, for all adopted targets. It is a joint effort of the UN appointed custodian agencies, namely the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), the World Bank, and the World Health Organization (WHO). The IEA has been proud to chair this year the preparation of the report.<br>
<br>
The report’s findings suggest that the world is making progress towards SDG 7 targets, but will fall short of meeting them by 2030. Ensuring affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030 remains possible but will require more sustained efforts particularly to reach some of the world’s poorest populations and to improve energy sustainability.<br>
<br>
IEA’s Executive Director, Dr. Fatih Birol, will present the key findings of the report, alongside high level representatives from the World Bank and IRENA.<br>
<br>
We look forward to seeing you there. If you wish to register, please enter your information on this link, no later than Friday 24 May: <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScDxkfa2d6YO5gXKWFOhrz2fe4GuVlgnYbXNslAsjjixpcBDA/viewform" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScDxkfa2d6YO5gXKWFOhrz2fe4GuVlgnYbXNslAsjjixpcBDA/viewform</a><br>
For more information, please do not hesitate to contact Mr. Arthur Contejean (<a href="mailto:Arthur.CONTEJEAN@iea.org" target="_blank">Arthur.CONTEJEAN@iea.org</a><mailto:<a href="mailto:Arthur.CONTEJEAN@iea.org" target="_blank">Arthur.CONTEJEAN@iea.org</a>>).<br>
<br>
Best regards,<br>
<br>
Laura Cozzi<br>
Chief Energy Modeller<br>
International Energy Agency <br>
<a href="http://enb.iisd.org/email/climate-l/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://enb.iisd.org/email/climate-l/</a> <br>
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