[Stoves] High mass space heating options Re: Rocket Stove for the PLACE

Crispin Pemberton-Pigott crispinpigott at gmail.com
Tue Oct 11 23:03:06 CDT 2011


Dear Roger

 

Regarding population (and books like The Population Bomb).

 

> Maybe a condition of life should contain some of the Chinese rule of thumb
that one kid and then sterilization. Why should the rest of suffer the same
end as those freely choosing to over populate.

 

China is facing an economic collapse (depression) in about the year 2035
that will be directly caused by the very policy you advocate. The current
economic calamity that is facing the US was calculated some time ago by
Harry S Dent the famous economic student of demographics. If you remove a
lot of the people, the economy collapses.

 

As the Baby Boomers retire, and the number of people following them is
smaller, there are huge gaps in the knowledge and worker base. The current
recession will last much longer than is generally assumed and will get a lot
worse before it gets better in 2020-2022. There are sound demographic
reasons for this. For example, retirement housing in Florida will continue
to drop in price because there aren't enough new retirees to buy them and
keep the prices up. The first housing portion to re-boom will be rental
premises and first homes for the 'echo boomers' who will come into the age
groups that take those types of accommodation first.

 

A lot is known about this. As people get wealthier they stop having so many
children without any encouragement, to the point that rich countries have to
offer incentives to get people to have one or two. Russia, Italy, Germany,
Singapore and so on. If they cannot maintain their populations the economy
will fall into dire straits. Hence, immigration from poorer countries.

 

The sales of cooking stoves follows a similar demographic trend. It matters
how old the cook is, what they are used to, what fuels they think are cool,
what foods they cook (and how). That sort of thing. This list tends to
discuss stoves for people with large families, and they are large because
they are poor, not poor because they are large.

 

Analysing the market as we should shows up these demographic-led preferences
and trends. It is a very interesting subject and one of the leading
exponents of this type of analysis is Harry Dent. He has several books on
the subject, mostly about the stock market and how certain companies are
better than others according to the phase of the 80 year population cycle.

 

At present the business cycle, the commodity cycle, the innovation cycle,
the population cycle and indeed other cycles are coinciding in negative
territory between now and 2016. It is going to be a major collapse,
economically.

 

Stock firewood, cash under mattress.

 

Regards

Crispin

 

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