[Stoves] global warming

Wed Nov 26 13:12:59 CST 2014

Dr.  Yury and list

	1.   I need to take issue again with your statement today (below) of “..0.01% of CO2 per year to what exists in nature”

	2.  On 25 September, I wrote this responding to your same number given on 23 September:
I think you have made two errors with your number below of “0.01% per year”.  So I ask for your source.

	Using round approximate numbers to make the computations simpler:

	a.   Present (2014) atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 ppm
	b.   Ten years ago (2004)  “       “‘          “     of about  378, so the slope is about 2.2 ppm/year (call it 2 for simplicity, but getting closer to 3 ppm/yr recently)
	c.    Dividing  2 ppm/yr by 400 ppm gives 0.005 or 0.5% per year.  (would get a larger number if using something less than 400)
	d.    But this is not the right computation.  We should be comparing to the excess CO2 - not the total CO2.  The organization 350.org is suggesting that we need to remove 50 ppm from the atmosphere  (it will get worse).   But this would then give 2/50 = .04 or 4% worse very year.    Or 100% in 25 years - the year 2039.

	 The ratio of 4% per year to your 0.01% per year is a factor of 400 difference.  I look forward to your computation

	3.  On 27 September, you kindly responded this way:
14 billion tons / year of coal, oil and gas is produced in the world (data from the International Energy Agency). It is about 10 billion tons of carbon. 
We will get 36 000 000 000 tons / year of CO2, if all the carbon is burned. (Part of the fossil organic matteris converted into polymeric material does not rot, but we neglect)
The content of carbon dioxide in the oceans 36 000 000 000 000 tons in terms of carbon. This is 132 000 000 000 000 tons of carbon dioxide 
(Wikipedia "Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of the Earth")

I'm not saying that the content of carbon dioxide in nature invariably. The breath of the world ocean onlyhas an amplitude of 30 billion tonnes. Variable values are emissions of volcanoes and other natural phenomena. I affirm that the anthropogenic factor is greatly exaggerated. Glaciers are melting now.Ancient Roman road in Greenland are exposed at the site of glaciers.

	4.   I missed this last response, so I apologize for not commenting earlier.  I would have wanted to continue arguing against your 0.01% value given below.  So,  I now make these additional comments:
	a.  Yes, percentages are a valid way of comparing.
	b.  Your computation has indisputable numbers (4 vs about 40,000 GtC giving 1/10,000 = .01%)  
               (see http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Carbon_cycle.jpg)
	c.   Correct ratio - but not helpful, useful, or important in climate terms.   
	        Add that in ocean terms, it is the surface ocean that is important for climate - also gone up about the same 30-40% as C in the atmosphere. 	And these percentages, especially in a short time, are clearly important,
   	d.    I should have asked for you to not only give your rationale but also comment on mine - given above - in your terms of  “..the anthropogenic factor is greatly exaggerated.”

Ron

On Nov 26, 2014, at 6:24 AM, yury yud <yudyury at gmail.com> wrote:

> Richard,
> Climate change is the normal state of the earth. It was cooling and warming. Novels of the 19th century say that the Dutch winter skating move through the channels. These channels do not freeze now.
> Human impact on the climate, this is a deliberate mistake interested people. Emissions have local importance, where a high density of population and industry. They do not have global significance. All emissions can add 0.01% of CO2 per year to what exists in nature.
> Yury Yudkevich
>  yudyury at gmail.com
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