[Stoves] health impact?

[kgharris]

Hi all,

I was wondering what happens when all the people whos lives are saved add their demand on an already stressed environment.  If 10,000 lives are saved that is 10,000 more mouths to feed and 10,000 more people cutting down forests.  That's today, 20 years from now it will be even more as the saved children begin their own families, and in 40 years even more.  I asked a friend about this and he, being a retired high school teacher, said that the stoves must be accompanied by education.  Any thought on what education would be good?

Kirk Harris,
Santa Rosa, CA. USA
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Marc-Antoine Pare 
  To: Discussion of biomass cooking stoves 
  Sent: Tuesday, September 02, 2014 11:57 PM
  Subject: [Stoves] health impact?


  Hi everyone,


  A big confession: having tinkered with stoves for years, I never actually looked into the numbers of stove health impacts. I'm trying to fix that, and I hope you can help!


  I mean, yes, I can wave my hands about PM and CO and four million deaths!


  But how many deaths (or DALYs) do you avert per stove? Or per 10,000 stoves? Or per 100,000,000?


  I thought it would be an easy question to answer, but it's turning out to be quite tricky to even ballpark.


  Here is one interesting source. This is from the very recent webinar on Kirk Smith's HAPIT tool. 


  http://www.cleancookstoves.org/resources_files/hapit-results-rwanda.pdf



  This report considers 25,000 households.
  If you provide all of those households a rocket stove, you save only 0.75 lives per year.


  If you take the GACC's target 100,000,000 households, that would mean


  0.75/25000*100000000 = 3,000 lives saved worldwide annually.



  What am I missing there? This seems so small.


  Some speculation:


  Kirk Smith mentions in the HAPIT webinar that even a small amount of PM2.5 is still harmful. Perhaps biomass stoves just don't get the number low enough?


  I think this would fit with the chart in the linked PDF that shows that stoves only reduce deaths by <5% for indoor air pollution. A few times in the HAPIT webinar, they mention "a lot of lives are still left on the table."


  This also seems to agree with something I found in Christian L'Orange's dissertation:
  http://digitool.library.colostate.edu///exlibris/dtl/d3_1/apache_media/L2V4bGlicmlzL2R0bC9kM18xL2FwYWNoZV9tZWRpYS8yNDYyOTQ=.pdf



  Figure 33 shows that Envirofit G3300 stoves only have a 3% (or so) impact on "Adjusted Relative Risk" (of death)




  Please do not worry about hurting my feelings in correcting these numbers. Am I thinking about this the wrong way around? Have I punched the numbers in incorrectly? 


  Also, I would be very interested to read more good papers on health impacts for stoves. It is all really quite interesting work. I feel bad that I didn't look at it sooner.


  Best,


  Marc Paré


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