[Stoves] SNV Newsletter - report on the downdraft fish smoker

[Crispin Pemberton-Pigott]

Dear Friends

From the SNV article on the fish smokers:

“The World Health Organization<http://www.who.int/en/> estimates that harmful cookstove smoke is the fifth leading cause of death in developing countries.”

That is literally unbelievable. Just for good measure I checked what they say about smoking deaths (presumed to be mostly endured indoors). They say<http://www.who.int/fctc/mediacentre/news/2016/commonwealth-parliamentarians-plan-tackle-tobacco-epidemic/en/> 10m people will be ‘killed’ per year in this century. Add 10m to 4.3m and you get 14.3m – so are these deaths or premature deaths? And why is this number, two causes only, larger than the total (>12m) for all premature deaths for all pollution (not just air). Hmm… the investigation starts:

According to the WHO site linked,
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs292/en/ “Over 4 million people die prematurely from illness attributable to the household air pollution from cooking with solid fuels.”

This shows Nikhil is correct with the ‘attributed’ comment.

It is somewhat contradicted by
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs313/en/ “Ambient (outdoor air pollution) in both cities and rural areas was estimated to cause 3 million premature deaths worldwide in 2012.”

The claim is refined here
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/air-pollution/en/ “Regionally, low- and middle-income countries in the WHO South-East Asia and Western Pacific Regions had the largest air pollution-related burden in 2012, with a total of 3.3 million deaths linked to indoor air pollution and 2.6 million deaths related to outdoor air pollution.”

What does ‘linked’ mean and how did the 3m premature deaths worldwide become 3.3m deaths in just part of the world?

This is instructive (emphasis added):

“The new estimates are based on the latest WHO mortality data from 2012 as well as evidence of health risks from air pollution exposures. Estimates of people’s exposure to outdoor air pollution in different parts of the world were formulated through a new global data mapping. This incorporated satellite data, ground-level monitoring measurements and data on pollution emissions from key sources, as well as modelling of how pollution drifts in the air.”

So Nikhil was right again, the deaths are not attributed by looking at people dying, but by making estimates based on GBD numbers. This is how they allocated the diseases and deaths (same article):

“Indoor air pollution-caused deaths – breakdown by disease:

  *   34% - stroke;
  *   26% - ischaemic heart disease;
  *   22% - COPD;
  *   12% - acute lower respiratory infections in children; and
  *   6% - lung cancer.
There is not a single death in this, it is an assignment of premature deaths to causes based on various models of exposure (not actual exposure tied to medical consequences). Why are they called ‘deaths’? No wonder why people are confused. The WHO is confused and their numbers not only add up, they more than add up!

“After analysing the risk factors and taking into account revisions in methodology, WHO estimates indoor air pollution was linked to 4.3 million deaths in 2012 in households cooking over coal, wood and biomass stoves.”

Is this an increase, in the same year, from 3m (globally) or 3.3m (in part of the world)? This asserts in direct contradiction to the other WHO site that they are not premature deaths, they are actual deaths caused by HH cooking smoke. I think it understand how it was done: Perhaps the 3m premature deaths were upgraded to ‘3m deaths’ which somehow corresponds to “4.3m premature deaths” – is that possible?

“Later this year, WHO will release indoor air quality guidelines on household fuel combustion…”

This begs the question, “What does the WHO know about household fuel combustion?” Are they not the people who said that only ‘processed coal’ could be allowed as a domestic fuel in the belief that somewhere inside, coal contains smoke? Yes, they are! Ron Larsen cited them.  According to some people I met this year in Asia, coal not only has a lot of smoke in it, it has a ‘high CO content’. Really?? Yeah, and they pointed to coals on sale that had ‘different CO contents’.  ‘That one has a lot of CO!”

Thoughtfully the WHO provides contact information so we can raise (pretty basic) question about the information above.

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For more information, contact

Mr Tarik Jasarevic
Mobile: +41 79 367 6214
Telephone: +41 22 791 5099
E-mail: jasarevict at who.int<mailto:jasarevict at who.int>

Glenn Thomas
Telephone: +41 22 791 3983
Mobile: +41 79 509 0677
E-mail: thomasg at who.int<mailto:thomasg at who.int>

Nada Osseiran
Communications Officer, Department of Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health
Telephone: +41 22 791 4475
Mobile: +4179 445 1624
E-mail: osseirann at who.int<mailto:osseirann at who.int>
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Regards
Crispin
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