[Stoves] We're Actually Using More Fossil Fuels Than Ever

[Paul Anderson]

Dear Phillip,    (and I have invited the Biochar Listserv to also 
discuss this on their separate Listserv. For them, the previous messages 
are found below my message.   The discussion refers to the article 
at:                   )

https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fos
sil-fuels-than-ever/

Your comments questioning the _impacts_ of increasing atmospheric CO2 
are well stated.  Readers are free to agree or disagree with you.  Only 
in the future will there ever be the historical evidence and conclusive 
proof that you seek, but we and our grandchildren will all be living 
through those years, literally making the history that could drastically 
alter life on earth.

However, what is scary about the DOE analysis is that inspite of 
increasing concerns about atmospheric CO2, the best indications are that 
very significant rises in fossil fuel usage (and CO2 increases) are 
likely in spite of the current and forseeable efforts to stop the rise 
and even reverse it.

About 35 years from now (2050) my grandson will be 50 years old, and 
MAYBE BY THEN there will be sufficient historical documentation to show 
how 300 years (1750 to 2050) were sufficient to massively upset the 
climate on Planet Earth.  And then it would be evident that at least the 
next 50 to 100 years (to 2100 or 2150) would be getting even worse 
regardless of whatever efforts could be attempted (or maybe attempt 
crazy stuff like launching reflective particles into the stratosphere to 
prompt cooling).

Of course, by then Peak Oil and diminishing oil/natural gas supplies 
might be seen as a savior that literally forces the fossil adicts to 
change their ways.

A big part of the increase in usage of fossil fuel is attributed to the 
rise in living standards and energy needs of impoverished people.  Their 
socio-economic advancement SHOULD happen.  But the irony is that the 
money-focused (business-sickness) interests of the already wealthy 
societies actually want those poor societies to become users of fossil 
fuels (so that the wealthy can be even richer).

That is scary.   And the future is scary.  We need to have long-range 
planning, with some preparations and adjustment.  And action now.

Paul

Doc  /  Dr TLUD  /  Prof. Paul S. Anderson, PhD
Email:  psanders at ilstu.edu
Skype:   paultlud    Phone: +1-309-452-7072
Website:  www.drtlud.com

On 7/18/2016 3:32 AM, Philip Lloyd wrote:
> Dear Mangolazi
>
> Actually it's not scary. We are repeatedly told that a warmer world will be
> a more vicious world, but if you go to the data you find two problems:
> 1.  You measure change from some baseline, but for most climate indicators
> there are no baselines - we don't really know what the "average" climate
> should be, not least because it's changing all the time, so the estimate of
> "average" has a large error associated with it. How can you tell what is
> abnormal if you have no decent measure of what is normal?
> 2.  The recorded history of extreme events is rarely long enough to give you
> a decent estimate of their frequency (and by decent I mean a standard
> deviation of less than 10% per century) and totally inadequate to give you
> any idea if the rate is changing.
> There is some relief from the first problem.  If you have lots of good data,
> sort of 30-40 years of good weekly average data, then you can detect a trend
> with some statistical reliability - I say some, not good! But I have
> searched in vain for any relief from the second.
>
> The good news is that it has been warming for around 170 years, and if we
> still cannot reliably detect climate changes other than temperature, then
> the scariness gets much less.
>
> Yours in confidence - and I don't mean confidentially!
>
> Philip
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Stoves [mailto:stoves-bounces at lists.bioenergylists.org] On Behalf Of
> Mangolazi
> Sent: Monday, July 18, 2016 2:28 AM
> To: Discussion of biomass cooking stoves
> Subject: Re: [Stoves] We're Actually Using More Fossil Fuels Than Ever
>
> That's a scary wake-up call less than a year after the Paris climate summit.
> Now it's business as usual.
>
> We need to both switch to renewable power fast and also reduce total energy
> consumption. The former is relatively easier once governments and
> corporations see the money in renewables; the latter is a heck of a lot
> harder because it would go against the grain of modern industrial society
> and the consumer economy.
>
> Can we live with more localized economies with sustainable, equitable
> practices? Will entrenched politics and financial interests allow all that?
>
> On July 17, 2016 12:06:23 PM GMT+08:00, Paul Anderson <psanders at ilstu.edu>
> wrote:
>> To every person on Earth,    (but most do not care)
>>
>> The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of
>> Energy published a major report, with some very bad news.  See comments
>>
>> about it in this article:
>>
>> https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fos
>> sil-fuels-than-ever/
>>
>> PaulDoc / Dr TLUD / Prof. Paul S. Anderson, PhD Email:
>> psanders at ilstu.edu
>> Skype: paultlud Phone: +1-309-452-7072 Website: www.drtlud.com
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> -----------------------------------------------------------------------
>> -
>>
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