[Stoves] We're Actually Using More Fossil Fuels Than Ever

Mon Jul 18 10:51:49 CDT 2016

Thank you, Paul

We have known we were facing a huge increase in CO2 for a long time.  India
represents the next big surge - if it takes off anything like China we will
race through 450ppm. If Africa takes off, 500ppm will soon be there. Thank
heavens the effect is logarithmic, and the impacts will slow.

For a few rays of hope, however, I commend the Bray/von Storch survey of
climate scientists.  Unlike the Cook et al survey, which did a (probably
biased) survey of scientist's publications, Bray and van Storch used what I
think is a very good, neutral set of questions to ask the scientists
directly.  One of their first questions was" is the climate changing?" - 75%
said no doubt.  They then asked if human beings were responsible, and in the
latest survey 49% said no doubt - 51% had reservations to varying degrees.
The easiest access to the report is
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/bray-and-von-storch-5th-internati
onal-survey-climate-scientists-20152016.

There is an interesting problem of relevance to this list - the IEA gives an
estimate of fuelwood use (which neither the World Bank nor the BP
statistical survey gives), and I think is exceeds the forest sink by a
significant margin, i.e. deforestation is real, and those whom we serve are
partly responsible. Fuel efficient stoves aren't completely idiotic!

Kind regards

Phi;ip. 

From: Stoves [mailto:stoves-bounces at lists.bioenergylists.org] On Behalf Of
Paul Anderson
Sent: Monday, July 18, 2016 4:48 PM
To: Discussion of biomass cooking stoves; biochar at yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [Stoves] We're Actually Using More Fossil Fuels Than Ever

Dear Phillip,    (and I have invited the Biochar Listserv to also discuss
this on their separate Listserv. For them, the previous messages are found
below my message.   The discussion refers to the article at:
)

https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fos
sil-fuels-than-ever/

Your comments questioning the impacts of increasing atmospheric CO2 are well
stated.  Readers are free to agree or disagree with you.  Only in the future
will there ever be the historical evidence and conclusive proof that you
seek, but we and our grandchildren will all be living through those years,
literally making the history that could drastically alter life on earth.

However, what is scary about the DOE analysis is that inspite of increasing
concerns about atmospheric CO2, the best indications are that very
significant rises in fossil fuel usage (and CO2 increases) are likely in
spite of the current and forseeable efforts to stop the rise and even
reverse it.  

About 35 years from now (2050) my grandson will be 50 years old, and MAYBE
BY THEN there will be sufficient historical documentation to show how 300
years (1750 to 2050) were sufficient to massively upset the climate on
Planet Earth.  And then it would be evident that at least the next 50 to 100
years (to 2100 or 2150) would be getting even worse regardless of whatever
efforts could be attempted (or maybe attempt crazy stuff like launching
reflective particles into the stratosphere to prompt cooling).

Of course, by then Peak Oil and diminishing oil/natural gas supplies might
be seen as a savior that literally forces the fossil adicts to change their
ways.

A big part of the increase in usage of fossil fuel is attributed to the rise
in living standards and energy needs of impoverished people.  Their
socio-economic advancement SHOULD happen.  But the irony is that the
money-focused (business-sickness) interests of the already wealthy societies
actually want those poor societies to become users of fossil fuels (so that
the wealthy can be even richer).

That is scary.   And the future is scary.  We need to have long-range
planning, with some preparations and adjustment.  And action now.

Paul

Doc  /  Dr TLUD  /  Prof. Paul S. Anderson, PhD
Email:  psanders at ilstu.edu
Skype:   paultlud    Phone: +1-309-452-7072
Website:  www.drtlud.com

On 7/18/2016 3:32 AM, Philip Lloyd wrote:

Dear Mangolazi

Actually it's not scary. We are repeatedly told that a warmer world will be
a more vicious world, but if you go to the data you find two problems:
1.  You measure change from some baseline, but for most climate indicators
there are no baselines - we don't really know what the "average" climate
should be, not least because it's changing all the time, so the estimate of
"average" has a large error associated with it. How can you tell what is
abnormal if you have no decent measure of what is normal?
2.  The recorded history of extreme events is rarely long enough to give you
a decent estimate of their frequency (and by decent I mean a standard
deviation of less than 10% per century) and totally inadequate to give you
any idea if the rate is changing. 
There is some relief from the first problem.  If you have lots of good data,
sort of 30-40 years of good weekly average data, then you can detect a trend
with some statistical reliability - I say some, not good! But I have
searched in vain for any relief from the second.

The good news is that it has been warming for around 170 years, and if we
still cannot reliably detect climate changes other than temperature, then
the scariness gets much less.

Yours in confidence - and I don't mean confidentially!

Philip

-----Original Message-----
From: Stoves [mailto:stoves-bounces at lists.bioenergylists.org] On Behalf Of
Mangolazi
Sent: Monday, July 18, 2016 2:28 AM
To: Discussion of biomass cooking stoves
Subject: Re: [Stoves] We're Actually Using More Fossil Fuels Than Ever

That's a scary wake-up call less than a year after the Paris climate summit.
Now it's business as usual.

We need to both switch to renewable power fast and also reduce total energy
consumption. The former is relatively easier once governments and
corporations see the money in renewables; the latter is a heck of a lot
harder because it would go against the grain of modern industrial society
and the consumer economy.

Can we live with more localized economies with sustainable, equitable
practices? Will entrenched politics and financial interests allow all that? 

On July 17, 2016 12:06:23 PM GMT+08:00, Paul Anderson
<mailto:psanders at ilstu.edu> <psanders at ilstu.edu>
wrote:

To every person on Earth,    (but most do not care)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of 
Energy published a major report, with some very bad news.  See comments

about it in this article:

https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fos
sil-fuels-than-ever/

PaulDoc / Dr TLUD / Prof. Paul S. Anderson, PhD Email:
psanders at ilstu.edu
Skype: paultlud Phone: +1-309-452-7072 Website: www.drtlud.com

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