[Stoves] Off-topic: Noise pollution and premature mortality

Crispin Pemberton-Pigott crispinpigott at outlook.com
Wed Jul 26 14:38:11 CDT 2017


Dear Nikhil

This is absolutely extraordinary. You mean I can get aDALY credits for changing a noisy (they are called Roarer heads for a reason) kerosene stove to a quiet and serene wood pellet stove?

I would never have guessed that. I can even save the children. Who knew?

I am interested in the assumptions that lie behind the models for a simple reason: if an assumption, called ‘A’, is made, and then various modeling of exposure and effects is delivered into a model of health consequences, at some point the result could be used to ‘create’ the claim that based on the modeled health effects ‘B’, ‘A’ is a fact. Maybe I should write ‘fact’ because that would a carefully constructed and cleverly hidden loop where ‘A’ leads to health consequence ‘B’ which as a stand-alone number, can be used to claim that ‘A’ must be true because ‘B’ is true and leads to ‘A’.

Isn’t that what is happening? Is it true that the first assumption about solid fuels, that they are ‘dirty’, is being validated by the numbers derived from that self-same assumption?

Thanks for your attention to details
Crispin




Crispin:

Your news on UK solid fuel stoves led me to another article on the same webzine - EU warning over air quality outlook<http://www.airqualitynews.com/2015/03/03/eu-warning-over-air-quality-outlook/> 3 March 2015.

The European Environment Agency is quoted as saying,

"Road traffic is considered the greatest contributor to noise exposure in Europe, and most recently the EEA estimates that environmental noise contributes to around 10,000 premature deaths due to coronary heart disease and stroke each year."

That's Europe-wide and for 2011. I am glad to see WHO Europe imprimatur. I quote from WHO Europe Burden of Disease from Environmental Noise<http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/136466/e94888.pdf> (2011)

"Exposure–response relationship

For a quantitative risk assessment and the derivation of guidelines for public health noise policy, a common exposure–response curve is required. The risk estimates obtained from different noise studies can be summarized using the statistical approach of meta-analysis.

Definition of exposure

Energy-based indicators of exposure (Leq) are adequate and sufficient for assessing the relationship between long-term exposure to community noise and chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disorders. While single event noise indicators can be useful predictors (as additional information) for assessing the effects of acute noise (e. g. sleep disturbance) (112), integrated noise indicators (e.g. a year’s average noise level) are suitable predictors in epidemiological studies for assessing the long-term effects of chronic noise exposure."


Leq is "weighted equivalent sound pressure level" over certain hours (4 hours for night-equivalent and 12 hours for day-equivalent".

I don't see how Leq are computed from "energy" data except that diesel sales to construction and landscaping industry may be used to compute some noise levels using "noise emission factors". And maybe small industry surveys and power plants can also do the same. Lawn mowers and tree cutters are the most significant noise I hear these days, apart from the keyboard clicks (sure to cause premature death).

No matter, they have a dose-response curve from meta-analysis. As reported in the Executive Summary:
Cardiovascular diseases

The evidence from epidemiological studies on the association between exposure to road traffic and aircraft noise and hypertension and ischaemic heart disease has increased during recent years. Road traffic noise has been shown to increase the risk of ischaemic heart disease, including myocardial infarction. Both road traffic noise and aircraft noise increase the risk of high blood pressure. Very few studies exist regarding the cardiovascular effects of exposure to rail traffic noise.

Exposure–response relationships

Numerical meta-analyses were carried out assessing exposure–response relationships between community noise and cardiovascular risk. A polynomial function was fitted through the data points from the analytic studies within the noise range from 55 to 80 dB(A):

 Estimated burden in western Europe

Based on the exposure data from the noise maps of EU Member States, it is estimated that the burden of disease from environmental noise is approximately 61 000 years for ischaemic heart disease in high-income European countries.

Cognitive impairment in children

The case definition of noise-related cognitive impairment is: The Reduction in cognitive ability in school-age children that occurs while the noise exposure persists and will persist for some time after the cessation of the noise exposure. The extent to which noise impairs cognition, particularly in children, has been studied with both experimental and epidemiological studies.

Hypothetical exposure–response relationship

Based on available evidence, a hypothetical exposure–response relationship between noise level (Ldn) and risk of cognitive impairment was formulated: all of the noise exposed children were cognitively affected at a level as high as 95 dB(A) Ldn, and no children were affected at a relatively low level, such as 50 dB(A) Ldn. A linear relationship in the range of these two limits was assumed as a basis for a conservative approximation of YLD.

Estimated burden in western Europe

If one extrapolates the exposure distribution and population structure of Sweden to western European countries, the estimated DALYs for the EUR-A countries are 45 000 years for children aged 7–19 years.

There are striking parallels to the "data free", "reality free" war on solid fuels by WHO's "Global Burden of Disease from Air Pollution".

The GBD cult must declare that GBD has zero predictive value. Which means zero policy relevance.

Failing which, you and I can develop $/aDALY scheme for our advanced noise-blocking glass technology for buildings.

Nikhil

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