[Stoves] Indonesia CSI report/video/blog

Mon Jul 16 23:41:57 CDT 2018

Dear Nikhil

Thanks for analysis. The project won two prizes. (that no one will hear about) for innovation already.

The reason for continued biomass use is cultural. In Java they have memorials ‎for the departed after 10 days, 30 days 100 days, 300 and 1000 days and so on. At these events about 40-50 people are fed. Everyone has what Cecil called a 'party stove' which is wood-fired. There are a lot of. Relatives to be remembered so that stove is used about 20 times a year.

The second reason is water heating. Almost no one in their right mind heats a significant mass of water using gas. ‎So there is a 'dirty kitchen' at the back where water is heated even in homes otherwise running exclusively on LPG.

There is a well-developed market for wood fuels. The charcoal market is tiny.

The outputs from our point of view were the finance model, with its follow-up methodology, and the fully refined CSI contextual test method, the implications of which have still to sink in, judging by what I read on this list.

Re the exposure, we were in no position to test that. Cecil identified four characteristic kitchen designs. Many are enclosed with a very tall tiled roof. Fire smoke and waste heat are both used extensively for drying, crop preserving, and fuel drying. The low cost multi-pot clay stoves have materials issues. That should be solved by using plastic refractory or geopolymer materials. Both are game-changers for artisanal construction on site.

We are awaiting a national programme. They have the world's best cooking stove test lab.  ‎Accurate, flexible, almost automatic, and easy to calibrate and use.

Regards
Crispin

Crispin:

Thank you. This is well-written, despite the homilies about health, climate change, whatever.

It is an example of what the World Bank is best at - cultivating local support network, government ownership, channeling money via third parties. There are parallels to the work on Solar Home Systems project that began nearly 25 years ago, for Indonesia. (The project was approved in 1996 and had an immediate market impact before a penny moved under the project. A complicated story; I had a tangential involvement in project design, but the 1997 Asian financial crisis killed the project implementation. But that was the origin of what later came to be called OBA - Output Based Aid - and now RBF - Results Based Finance.)

It is also great that the techniques of stove-testing are made locally relevant, instead of borrowing from some Collegium Pontificum.

The only complaint I have is that while there is the usual talk about emission rates, I don't see any indication that cooking environments were monitored for concentrations. Emission rates - even if realized in actual practice over a year - are only partially responsible for concentrations. It is exposures - ingestion - that matter, and using the BAMG-type box models of air circulation are of no help if the cooking is done outdoor or with open windows and doors. (On Java, I imagine cooking is done under shed, but I see only one picture - on p. 34 - that shows an overall "cooking environment", not just a cook and a stove. That picture looks like an extension of the house, a shed with enough ventilation at the top. So much for BAMG box models.)

What I find very interesting is this diagram - that even in the top income quintile, 50% of the households use both firewood and LPG. I imagine this is partly reflecting further income stratification (top 5% vs. the next-highest 15%) as well as housing structures - e.g. apartments - and location - urban Java vs. rural Java vs. off-Java.

I don't see the geographic detail nor any data on commercial fuel prices. Even though Indonesia has a big biomass resource base, I am sure there is some market in fuelwood.

Back in 1980, one of my first assignments was the issue of kerosene subsidy in Indonesia. Then in 1986, I did Indonesia energy projections to 1995 and designed a household energy strategy using LPG for cooking as well as lighting, plus rural electrification. One day the mission chief, a veritable "energy man" of India (N B Prasad) asked me to justify my forecast scenarios of household energy use. When I rambled on the benefits of electricity and LPG, "Look, don't give me that theology; I have heard it for decades. Give me a scenario of subsidies and financing the subsidies; how would a finance minister look at this problem?"

That was one of the most significant lessons of my work as an energy economist. With what you have now from the pilot, I can imagine scenarios of subsidies for wood stove and fuel (pellets, say) that can satisfy the users - I reckon some 50 million households in 2030 who would be using woodfuels for cooking. (Total population 300 million, hence 75 million households. I am implicitly capping LPG subsidies, and assuming that 2/3 or the households will use wood cookstoves.)

That's about the same number of likely wood cookstove users in India by 2030, with or without LPG.

Stacking is a consumer's right. Will prevail. The whole of Asia has a wood and charcoal cookstove market, including purchased biomass fuels, of about roughly $5-25 billion a year if you get a scale up of what is seen here in Indonesia.

The prospects are huge. As Sara Morrison says, millions of lives are still at stake. (As if.)

It takes a lot to go from pilot to serious money, but a well-designed pilot is worth ten times the money spent on it. Congratulations to you and the team.

Nikhil

[cid:ii_jjp5cj791_164a6501525c3291]

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nikhil Desai
(US +1) 202 568 5831
Skype: nikhildesai888

On Mon, Jul 16, 2018 at 5:52 PM, Crispin Pemberton-Pigott <crispinpigott at outlook.com<mailto:crispinpigott at outlook.com>> wrote:
Dear Friends

“Indonesia pilot attracts entrepreneurs’ appetite to bring clean cooking technologies to households”

http://blogs.worldbank.org/eastasiapacific/node/3602<https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.worldbank.org%2Feastasiapacific%2Fnode%2F3602&data=02%7C01%7C%7Cbb9cd1b96fbd42629e8808d5eb9a22d7%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636673969594630773&sdata=cIjVx3WQFsowPp8m0xfv5P%2BTMzFrr1MnvEb3K1DD%2FE0%3D&reserved=0><https://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.worldbank.org%2Feastasiapacific%2Fnode%2F3602&data=02%7C01%7C%7C7c046e65e8814bfb318708d5eb52bc8e%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636673662929444693&sdata=sBFbsLfKchRnS6H2RdH%2Fp9IV8t11gZEhA0SV%2B5Susf0%3D&reserved=0>

Full report:

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/173331531226135009/pdf/128162-WP-P144213-PUBLIC-WBIndonesiaRBFWEB.pdf<https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocuments.worldbank.org%2Fcurated%2Fen%2F173331531226135009%2Fpdf%2F128162-WP-P144213-PUBLIC-WBIndonesiaRBFWEB.pdf&data=02%7C01%7C%7Cbb9cd1b96fbd42629e8808d5eb9a22d7%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636673969594630773&sdata=boLj7f%2FvAEOzZLz1U%2BNpFiB6wlW5vLhrd75svi83G9o%3D&reserved=0>

Enjoy!
Crispin

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