[Stoves] Indonesia CSI report/video/blog

Mon Jul 16 23:02:36 CDT 2018

Crispin:

Thank you. This is well-written, despite the homilies about health, climate
change, whatever.

It is an example of what the World Bank is best at - cultivating local
support network, government ownership, channeling money via third parties.
There are parallels to the work on Solar Home Systems project that began
nearly 25 years ago, for Indonesia. (The project was approved in 1996 and
had an immediate market impact before a penny moved under the project. A
complicated story; I had a tangential involvement in project design, but
the 1997 Asian financial crisis killed the project implementation. But that
was the origin of what later came to be called OBA - Output Based Aid - and
now RBF - Results Based Finance.)

It is also great that the techniques of stove-testing are made locally
relevant, instead of borrowing from some Collegium Pontificum.

The only complaint I have is that while there is the usual talk about
emission rates, I don't see any indication that cooking environments were
monitored for concentrations. Emission rates - even if realized in actual
practice over a year - are only partially responsible for concentrations.
It is exposures - ingestion - that matter, and using the BAMG-type box
models of air circulation are of no help if the cooking is done outdoor or
with open windows and doors. (On Java, I imagine cooking is done under
shed, but I see only one picture - on p. 34 - that shows an overall
"cooking environment", not just a cook and a stove. That picture looks like
an extension of the house, a shed with enough ventilation at the top. So
much for BAMG box models.)

What I find very interesting is this diagram - that even in the top income
quintile, 50% of the households use both firewood and LPG. I imagine this
is partly reflecting further income stratification (top 5% vs. the
next-highest 15%) as well as housing structures - e.g. apartments - and
location - urban Java vs. rural Java vs. off-Java.

I don't see the geographic detail nor any data on commercial fuel prices.
Even though Indonesia has a big biomass resource base, I am sure there is
some market in fuelwood.

Back in 1980, one of my first assignments was the issue of kerosene subsidy
in Indonesia. Then in 1986, I did Indonesia energy projections to 1995 and
designed a household energy strategy using LPG for cooking as well as
lighting, plus rural electrification. One day the mission chief, a
veritable "energy man" of India (N B Prasad) asked me to justify my
forecast scenarios of household energy use. When I rambled on the benefits
of electricity and LPG, "Look, don't give me that theology; I have heard it
for decades. Give me a scenario of subsidies and financing the subsidies;
how would a finance minister look at this problem?"

That was one of the most significant lessons of my work as an energy
economist. With what you have now from the pilot, I can imagine scenarios
of subsidies for wood stove and fuel (pellets, say) that can satisfy the
users - I reckon some 50 million households in 2030 who would be using
woodfuels for cooking. (Total population 300 million, hence 75 million
households. I am implicitly capping LPG subsidies, and assuming that 2/3 or
the households will use wood cookstoves.)

That's about the same number of likely wood cookstove users in India by
2030, with or without LPG.

Stacking is a consumer's right. Will prevail. The whole of Asia has a wood
and charcoal cookstove market, including purchased biomass fuels, of about
roughly $5-25 billion a year if you get a scale up of what is seen here in
Indonesia.

The prospects are huge. As Sara Morrison says, millions of lives are still
at stake. (As if.)

It takes a lot to go from pilot to serious money, but a well-designed pilot
is worth ten times the money spent on it. Congratulations to you and the
team.

Nikhil

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nikhil Desai
(US +1) 202 568 5831
*Skype: nikhildesai888*

On Mon, Jul 16, 2018 at 5:52 PM, Crispin Pemberton-Pigott <
crispinpigott at outlook.com> wrote:

> Dear Friends
>
> “Indonesia pilot attracts entrepreneurs’ appetite to bring clean cooking
> technologies to households”
>
> http://blogs.worldbank.org/eastasiapacific/node/3602<http
> s://nam03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=
> http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.worldbank.org%2Feastasiapacific%2Fnode%
> 2F3602&data=02%7C01%7C%7C7c046e65e8814bfb318708d5eb52bc8e%
> 7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636673662929444693&sdata=
> sBFbsLfKchRnS6H2RdH%2Fp9IV8t11gZEhA0SV%2B5Susf0%3D&reserved=0>
>
> Full report:
>
> http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/173331531226135009/pdf/128162-
> WP-P144213-PUBLIC-WBIndonesiaRBFWEB.pdf
>
> Enjoy!
> Crispin
>
>
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