[Stoves] FW: [stove and climate] More mind-blowing insights from China

Sun Jul 22 22:37:24 CDT 2018

Crispin:

Yes, "If you are going to promote something, promote something that you can
get."

Which, for UC-Berkeley and its HAP affiliates, means research grants to
cook more PhDs and establish a database for emissions, concentration,
exposures and disease for the 50 million or so people who have been killed
by assumption.

Looks like an amazing researchopportunity was missed.

" Coal burning small water heating low pressure boilers were removed and
replaced with gas fired ones, well ahead of the gas arriving in the pipe.
You can guess what happened."

If people died prematurely, a baseline of "death by freezing" could have
been established. Then compared to when gas came and also to those who
continued to use coal. Private gas companies Prof. Smith cites could
collect aDALYs - for just time and per diems - and sell them for subsidies.

Alas.

What is significant about Prof. Smith's discoveries now is the one he
mentions matter-of-fact-ly - " the new air pollution control region for the
northern plain area".

It is only because of the legal designation such as this - presumably based
on air basin modeling over several seasons - that fuel bans and
fuel/combustor substitution policies can be designed with a particular goal
in mind, say hourly and daily, monthly average pollutant concentrations at
particular places.

Without a reference objective - pollutant concentrations averages for
specific locations or regions - fuel bans cannot be said to have
environmental health objectives. (Governments have many reasons to spend
money and give inauguration photo opportunities and research grants.)

Prof Smith may be unnecessarily vexed that the mayor who treated him to
dinner was unaware of HAP damage. Maybe there is little to bother, in the
big scheme of things for a mayor. It's not like Prof. Smith has any
exposure and disease incidence data for the relevant cohorts for any length
of time. Not, at any rate, for the GBD killings.

Prof. Smith gets what he expects; when he inspects real people, he
discovers how ignorant they are.

Now about his text on gas pipeline and LPG: these are my guesses:

a) Usually, gas distribution networks are not developed for new household
connections alone, unless the customers are rich enough. Non-household
demands - and well-paying at that - carry the bulk of amortization costs.
Of course, with money growing on trees, anything is possible.

b) LPG cylinders may not be suitable for the same kind of heaters as
natural gas heaters. I have seen small LPG water heaters in Vanuatu and LPG
space heaters for external use in South Africa and here but not for indoor
use. They are in the market, but perhaps the risk of fire and incomplete
combustion - CO poisoning - is greater with LPG than with piped natural gas
and water/space heaters made to use natural gas.

China has been planning for gas production as well as imports (pipelines,
LNG) for decades. (Conversion of domestic city gas plants or blending was
being discussed way back in 1993/4 when I worked on China GHG strategy
report.  See a recent presentation at
https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/7693.pdf. Prof. Smith need not have been
surprised. Rural households are just new additions to piped gas market, and
so far, minuscule at the national level. Looks like cities are covered by
district heating networks and electricity, only recently switching to gas
as more gas is imported. Still, industry, power, and city gas will drive
the gas market growth. HAP is an afterthought as it often the case, if at
all.

No comparability to India rural LPG, but then the heating demand is not
that important.

Nikhil

PS: On Beijing -
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-pollution-beijing/beijings-struggle-against-pollution-will-be-tough-take-time-mayor-idUSKBN1FD0EJ

Beijing and other cities:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2123807/eight-northern-chinese-cities-fail-air-quality-targets

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nikhil Desai
(US +1) 202 568 5831
*Skype: nikhildesai888*

On Sun, Jul 22, 2018 at 3:02 PM, Crispin Pemberton-Pigott <
crispinpigott at outlook.com> wrote:

> Dear Teddy and All
>
> There seem to be three 'types' of charcoal: harvested to get rid of
> invasive species or as the result of improper grazing management,
> sustainable charcoal production as in South Africa and Rwanda, and
> unsustainable production where, in almost all cases, it is illegal‎.
>
> The legality plays a major part in whether or not it is produced
> sustainably. If you want to make it destructive and out of control, make it
> illegal and take away the forest management rights of the local population.
> If you want sustainable production, legalise it and put the resource under
> the control of local communities.
>
> With the 'gasification' ‎of China the situation is not analogous, but just
> as complicated. The banning of raw coal combustion in homes is quite common
> (not 'coal', 'raw coal'). Conversion to gas is anticipated and welcomed,
> but runs ahead of supply, which caused big problems this past winter
> (again). Coal burning small water heating low pressure boilers were removed
> and replaced with gas fired ones, we'll ahead of the gas arriving in the
> pipe. You can guess what happened.
>
> If Hebei Province alone converted to gas, it would use 25% of the
> available supply for the entire country. Do the math.
>
> So what needs to happen is the adoption of extremely clean burning coal
> heaters with at least a tiny amount of automation, and possibly the
> briquetting of the raw coal or treated coal, so the whole country can have
> acceptably clean air and ‎stay warm.
>
> It would be encouraging if those who are aware of these coal burning
> technologies promoted them instead of supporting the use of gas appliances
> for which ‎there is no fuel. The alarmist claims about 'deaths from air
> pollution' are insufficient to sell 'freezing to death' (F2D) as a choice
> better than using modern coal burning systems.
>
> Those promoting gas do not advocate using technologies from the 1890's.
> Why do they pretend that coal has to be burned that way?‎ They will end up
> looking pretty silly raging against technologies that no longer exist.
>
> As for the legality, it is illegal to burn raw coal in Hebei Province, and
> 85% of users do. During the assessments of coal burning LPB's for the Hebei
> Clean Air Program, the cleanest product identified was a raw coal burning
> crossdraft ‎stove, cleaner than all semi-coke (treated, 'clean') fuels in
> all stove products. Obviously, the problem is not the fuel, it is the
> combustor.
>
> If you are going to promote something, promote something that you can get.
>
> Regards
> Crispin
>
>
>
>
> Thanks for sharing Paul - always interesting to hear about such large
> scale projects like this.
>
> LPG is being pushed along by the Govt. of Kenya recently (
> http://www.kenyanews.go.ke/government-moves-to-avail-
> affordable-cooking-gas-to-kenyans/
> <https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kenyanews.go.ke%2Fgovernment-moves-to-avail-affordable-cooking-gas-to-kenyans%2F&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375118770&sdata=eMAsX4GA5G0iwIBDnfYiAZd9E0jiat8lubnDt%2FJG%2FnI%3D&reserved=0>) albeit
> with a few hiccups (https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/
> Kenya-cheap-gas-supply-rural-homes-safety-concerns/539546-
> 4570216-miaop7z/index.html
> <https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessdailyafrica.com%2Fnews%2FKenya-cheap-gas-supply-rural-homes-safety-concerns%2F539546-4570216-miaop7z%2Findex.html&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375118770&sdata=KgDYqCo1ZUcPo6Psey90FsGAnE97XkccaZczGYPRdYk%3D&reserved=0>) it
> seems that more and more people are cooking using gas then ever before.
> Stove stacking though seems to be as alive and well as ever even with the
> recent charcoal bans here. (and charcoal production, especially for
> clearing of new agricultural land seems to be going on as much as always
> https://www.facebook.com/EastAfricanBiomassEnergyPortal
> /posts/2011692142493297
> <https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FEastAfricanBiomassEnergyPortal%2Fposts%2F2011692142493297&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375118770&sdata=k7SjqjP9fCE2K2m3YWJpwPGE0Vi92m2mSYiAfRyVnA4%3D&reserved=0>)
> It has been good to see that there has been more talk then ever before
> about managing forests better and growing more trees for the future
> charcoal demand in East Africa as seen here https://www.newvision.co.
> ug/new_vision/news/1481795/environment-committees-fight-charcoal-burning
> <https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newvision.co.ug%2Fnew_vision%2Fnews%2F1481795%2Fenvironment-committees-fight-charcoal-burning&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375118770&sdata=EDxVEVkz0ftazdxmNWQUcJeFzQuRWqpqqbnmWSIotCg%3D&reserved=0>
>
>
> Speaking of charcoal in the news, also interesting to see the UK of all
> places with access to modern cooking methods being in the news for this -
> ''Is UK barbecue charcoal fuelling global deforestation?
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44880398
> <https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fscience-environment-44880398&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375118770&sdata=XKT2GYXFUn7dF4rmA2%2BZEh8dQx8WngI9jCTdvedOHjI%3D&reserved=0>
> ''
>
> Teddy
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jul 22, 2018 at 3:18 PM, Anderson, Paul <psanders at ilstu.edu>
> wrote:
>
>> Stovers,
>>
>>
>>
>> Below is a message that Kirk Smith sent to his [Stove and Climate] list
>> that I and some others are on.   VERY interesting!
>>
>>
>>
>> Paul
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Kirk R. SMITH <krksmith at berkeley.edu>
>> *Sent:* Sunday, July 22, 2018 12:34 AM
>> *To:* Kirk R. SMITH <krksmith at berkeley.edu>
>> *Subject:* [stove and climate] More mind-blowing insights from China
>>
>>
>>
>> I just spent a week in China, repeating again the experience I have had
>> in recent years – everything is changing rapidly and it is nigh impossible
>> to keep up between visits.
>>
>>
>>
>> With PKU colleagues, I visited the Jining area in Shandong Province, some
>> 2.5 hours south of Beijing by fast train (300 km/h).  Even though 600 km
>> away, Shandong is in the new air pollution control region for the northern
>> plain area including Beijing established after the terrible episodes in
>> 2013.    As part of a range of new measures to control ambient pollution,
>> they are planning to introduce clean fuels to 80% of all coal/biomass-using
>> households, which total some 1.1 million in the Jining area, in 3 years.
>> To date, some 70k have had gas (a few electricity) introduced and 160k more
>> are planned before next winter.  This is not the rate they need, but they
>> have plans to pick it up.  PKU has a project to evaluate less expensive
>> alternatives, but currently the area mainly hopes to introduce gas and
>> electricity.
>>
>>
>>
>> This is actual natural gas, however, not LPG.  It was like witnessing
>> something that I had always thought impossible (cows flying perhaps), to
>> see villages with well-made natural gas pipelines supplying everyone – both
>> for heating and cooking.    There must be a density of villages below which
>> it does not pay to put in pipelines, but these villages were kilometers
>> apart.  Interestingly, the pipelines are being put in by private companies,
>> but the cost of fuel is subsidized by the government at present.  (We need
>> to understand the economics better, also why LPG does not seem to be part
>> of the program, although available now.)   They are already seeing
>> potential constraints on gas supply given the expansion rates being
>> contemplated, but seem to feel that this can be managed soon.
>>
>>
>>
>> No stacking in evidence according to colleagues, although some households
>> using electricity for heating kept temperatures low last winter (and wore
>> more clothes) because they perceived costs of electricity to be high.  A
>> kind of reversal of the usual practice of the poor having become used to
>> once a year payment for a pile of coal, now see monthly bills as more
>> expensive.  Even though, through subsidies on the power, the actual power
>> cost is less.  Does not seem to be an issue with the gas.  It should be
>> noted, however, that use of coal is officially illegal now if a village has
>> gas or electric options, although hard to know how well this is enforced.
>>
>>
>>
>> The mayor hosted us for dinner and waxed enthusiastic about the air
>> pollution control program although complaining a bit that it takes
>> one-third of his time and he continually gets pressure from the central
>> government about progress.  Colleagues say that 10k (yes!) inspectors are
>> now employed in the 26 subregions of the northern plain area by the central
>> government to make sure the air pollution control measures are being taken
>> up.
>>
>>
>>
>> Ironic to say the least that household solid fuels are targeted because
>> of outdoor air pollution (in Beijing 600 km away, actually) with no
>> recognition of the pollution benefits to households – the mayor, for
>> example, indicated no awareness of the HAP issue, although noting the
>> social benefits of clean fuels.   But probably we should be happy
>> nevertheless – any port in a storm as the English expression goes.
>>
>>
>>
>> What a remarkable change and one, in its way, equal to the massive LPG
>> program in India. /k
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Kirk R. Smith, MPH, PhD <krksmith at berkeley.edu>
>>
>> Professor of Global Environmental Health
>>
>> University of California Berkeley, 94720-7360 USA
>>
>> Director, Collaborative Clean Air Policy Centre, Delhi;
>> https://ccapc.org.in/
>> <https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fccapc.org.in%2F&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375275028&sdata=saAGuCuYzxzW5ofDWZz%2Bw1TYJiJc1akmFgObpxBteDU%3D&reserved=0>
>>
>> Darbari Seth Block, India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi, 110003
>>
>> Delhi cell: (91) 99587 38713
>>
>> http://www.kirkrsmith.org/
>> <https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kirkrsmith.org%2F&data=02%7C01%7C%7Ca398b85506e9461c384a08d5efe2f319%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636678680375275028&sdata=Dx5uwu%2Fq9l%2F1dgqGHoqgh1jMkQoJmkKgSXHiBiwA%2F5k%3D&reserved=0>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.bioenergylists.org/pipermail/stoves_lists.bioenergylists.org/attachments/20180722/93b62d80/attachment.html>