[Stoves] Anticipation of fuels; Another interpretation

Thu Jun 23 18:36:47 CDT 2011

Hello Dean,

Now that we see you guys are getting into biomass processing, welcome: 

However, while I respect your insights about the macro data on trends toward biomass processing, actual production trends turn out to be a bit of a different reality on the ground: 

1) The costs you assign  to it's processing in fact much FAVOR the third world and not our own over industrialised world--not at least yet for the mass market here. The reason is that labor is about 90 to 95 % of the total production cost at the local level..As long as one stays very local in sourcing materials and local in distribution of the product to the market in low cost labor environments, it works out well (read, economically viable and environmentally sustainable) for them.   

2) Amp up the production to justify our wage costs here in the US part of the Americas, the issues of bulk value and shipping cost and ease of local replication all work against the US model of centralized mass production and wide distribution. 

•  At a density of 0.3 to 0.4 sg. –and reducing that figure by another 30% for realistic packing density– you have  one full cubic meter containing only 120 to 150 kgs. Its street value is about 10 (US) cents per KG in the third world generally, but as made for sales in the retail store here one might get 5 x that  –wholesale to said retailer but thats still what,  $75 dollars / cubic meter /150 kgs of fuel --before shipping. 
Now how far can one ship that bulk before its cost doubles and again that delivered price will again increase by at least 30% before it gets to the customer. 

But the really big,  added nail in the "do it here, not in the third world school"/  coffin, is that;
• it is an open sourced and easily replicated product. Even if one suceeds in shipping their biomass product of the above density to the neighboring town its going to be far more costly thant what can be easily replicated right in that town.  Anyone with a few hand tools and some scrap lumber can replicate it in no time. Two serious producers with a modfied yard chipper  (say 3-4 Kw ) and even the most efficient of hand powered presses can produce   about 120 kgs of product a day. They might double that with a modified log splitter but the point is that their market will be very competitive with the transported product but its still going to remain competitive only for their own local market area. 

It is not a case of making product in bulk and shipping it widely: Quite the opposite case in fact. Ground transportation is not about to get less expensive (although we keep hearing about this wonderful new thing called natural gas (unless you've viewed Gassland). 

In sum, unless we go to specialty briquettes for selected ambiance/ armotheraputic or toursit markets, it will never really hit home here as a product for centralised production and mass distribution--unless its  done under someone's, or some institution's  largesse, for those who are disnefranchised and destitute.

At least as we have seen it emerge over the past odd 17 years in now 45 nations, it seems to expand– not as large centralised produciton activites–but rather as an increasing number of widely distributed small scale production activities. 

However inefficient–from the idealised "economies of scale" standpoint– these small local entities are  pretty good at generating lots of small incomes, integrating communities, sustaining and self regulating themselves outside donor or political or other sectarian influences.  Thye pretty much function quietly like the vast majority of economic activity in the local economies,  in what what the UN calls "informal sector".   You won't find the briquette producers turning up in Shell grants, Ashdon Awards  or even the PCIA.. but they are there and growing none the less. 

I think that only when the US gets to the point where local production of solid fuel for local-only markets, is found viable and culturally favored (as for example food is, in local farmers markets), will we see biomass production for fuel as a viable concept here. I do not see them coming out of COSTCO of Home Depot anytime soon.

Kind regards

Richard Stanley
www.legacyfound.org
Ashland Oregon 

On Jun 23, 2011, at 9:44 AM, Dean Still wrote:

> Dear All,
> 
> Processing biomass fuel has a history of costing more than propane. Low density biomass, high cost of transportation, drying, shredding, densifying, marketing, can add up to lots of costs. Perhamps suitable to China, the US, but hard for me to imagine in a poorer situation? Even India?
> 
> Dried found materials will be the biomass used in poorer rural situations? Great to imagine found materials at no cost sustainably harvested burned cleanly.
> 
> Dean
> 
> 
> 
> On Thu, Jun 23, 2011 at 7:11 AM, Tom Miles <tmiles at trmiles.com> wrote:
> Crispin,
> 
> Your call for processed fuels echoes on of our main recommendations to the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves.
> 
> Projections by the US Forest Service indicate a substantial increase in demand and price of wood for construction, paper and energy with any scenario (high, low or sustainable development). The degree depends on how quickly developing countries other than China impact global demand. Right now Japanese paper production was reduced by the Tsunami – three paper mills were put out of action - which, combined with increases in Chinese demand, has had a dramatic impact on our wood and wood residues prices on the West Coast of the US. Some wood energy projects that I am working on are no longer economically feasible due to this external demand. A client in Michigan tells a similar story. There is no wood fuel available for his project at an affordable price. These are just early warnings about the impact of fiber and fuel shortages.     
> 
> Tom
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
> From: stoves-bounces at lists.bioenergylists.org [mailto:stoves-bounces at lists.bioenergylists.org] On Behalf Of Crispin Pemberton-Pigott
> Sent: Wednesday, June 22, 2011 6:23 AM
> To: Stoves
> Subject: [Stoves] Anticipating future markets for stoves and fuels
>  
> 
> Dear Friends
> 
> One should be aware of the emerging markets in order to plan ahead. The reason for this is that technologies take years to develop, and the same is true for fuel supply chains.
> 
> There is an excellent paper by at http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/uploads/media/Moerner_Science_environm_sea_level_3_11_Paper_534.pdf on the climate emerging in the next 40 years.
> 
> The implications of his work, and that of many others who have studied this in-depth (Stuiver and Quay, Hoyt and Schatten, Lean, Cliver, Rind, Bard, Bond, Mazzarella, Friis-Christensen and Lassen, Schove, Sanders & Fairbridge, Finkl and others) are that we are presently heading into a De Vries cycle (event).
> 
> The increasing need for space heating and processed space heating fuels that are customized for dramatically improved stoves opens new opportunities for inventors and market developers.
> 
> In particular the need for processed solid fuels is paramount. They can be stored, shipped by many means of transport and are generally energy dense. The appearance of torrefied wood pellets is an example of such a fuel.
> 
> There are lots of new ideas to think about.
> 
> Regards
> 
> Crispin
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
> 
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