[Stoves] Anticipation of fuels; Another interpretation

Thu Jun 23 20:32:25 CDT 2011

Hi Richard,

I agree with you and thanks for reminding me how biomass processing can make
a lot of sense at the local level.

All Best,

Dean

On Thu, Jun 23, 2011 at 4:36 PM, Richard Stanley
<rstanley at legacyfound.org>wrote:

> Hello Dean,
>
> Now that we see you guys are getting into biomass processing, welcome:
>
> However, while I respect your insights about the macro data on trends
> toward biomass processing, actual production trends turn out to be a bit of
> a different reality on the ground:
>
> 1) The costs you assign  to it's processing in fact much FAVOR the third
> world and* not *our own over industrialised world--not at least yet for
> the mass market here. The reason is that labor is about 90 to 95 % of the
> total production cost *at the local level*..As long as one stays very
> local in sourcing materials and local in distribution of the product to the
> market in *low cost labor* environments, it works out well (read,
> economically viable and environmentally sustainable) for them.
>
> 2) Amp up the production to justify our wage costs here in the US part of
> the Americas, the issues of bulk value and shipping cost and ease of local
> replication all work against the US model of centralized mass production and
> wide distribution.
>
> •  At a density of 0.3 to 0.4 sg. –and reducing that figure by another 30%
> for realistic packing density– you have  one full cubic meter containing
> only 120 to 150 kgs. Its street value is about 10 (US) cents per KG in the
> third world generally, but as made for sales in the retail store here one
> might get 5 x that  –wholesale to said retailer but thats still what,  $75
> dollars / cubic meter /150 kgs of fuel --before shipping.
> Now how far can one ship that bulk before its cost doubles and again that
> delivered price will again increase by at least 30% before it gets to the
> customer.
>
> *But the really big,  added nail in the "do it here, not in the third
> world school"/  coffin, is that;*
> • it is an open sourced and easily replicated product. Even if one suceeds
> in shipping their biomass product of the above density to the neighboring
> town its going to be far more costly thant what can be easily replicated
> right in that town.  Anyone with a few hand tools and some scrap lumber can
> replicate it in no time. Two serious producers with a modfied yard chipper
>  (say 3-4 Kw ) and even the most efficient of hand powered presses can
> produce   about 120 kgs of product a day. They might double that with a
> modified log splitter but the point is that their market will be very
> competitive with the transported product but its still going to remain
> competitive only for their own local market area.
>
> It is not a case of making product in bulk and shipping it widely: Quite
> the opposite case in fact. Ground transportation is not about to get less
> expensive (although we keep hearing about this wonderful new thing called
> natural gas (unless you've viewed Gassland).
>
> In sum, unless we go to specialty briquettes for selected ambiance/
> armotheraputic or toursit markets, it will never really hit home here as a
> product for centralised production and mass distribution--unless its  done
> under someone's, or some institution's  largesse, for those who are
> disnefranchised and destitute.
>
> At least as we have seen it emerge over the past odd 17 years in now 45
> nations, it seems to expand– not as large centralised produciton
> activites–but rather as an increasing number of widely distributed small
> scale production activities.
>
> However inefficient–from the idealised "economies of scale" standpoint–
> these small local entities are  pretty good at generating lots of small
> incomes, integrating communities, sustaining and self regulating themselves
> outside donor or political or other sectarian influences.  Thye pretty much
> function quietly like the vast majority of economic activity in the local
> economies,  in what what the UN calls "informal sector".   You won't find
> the briquette producers turning up in Shell grants, Ashdon Awards  or even
> the PCIA.. but they are there and growing none the less.
>
> I think that only when the US gets to the point where local production of
> solid fuel for local-only markets, is found viable and culturally favored
> (as for example food is, in local farmers markets), will we see biomass
> production for fuel as a viable concept here. I do not see them coming out
> of COSTCO of Home Depot anytime soon.
>
> Kind regards
>
> Richard Stanley
> www.legacyfound.org
> Ashland Oregon
>
>
> On Jun 23, 2011, at 9:44 AM, Dean Still wrote:
>
> Dear All,
>
> Processing biomass fuel has a history of costing more than propane. Low
> density biomass, high cost of transportation, drying, shredding, densifying,
> marketing, can add up to lots of costs. Perhamps suitable to China, the US,
> but hard for me to imagine in a poorer situation? Even India?
>
> Dried found materials will be the biomass used in poorer rural situations?
> Great to imagine found materials at no cost sustainably harvested burned
> cleanly.
>
> Dean
>
>
>
> On Thu, Jun 23, 2011 at 7:11 AM, Tom Miles <tmiles at trmiles.com> wrote:
>
>> Crispin,****
>>
>> Your call for processed fuels echoes on of our main recommendations to the
>> Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves. ****
>>
>> Projections by the US Forest Service indicate a substantial increase in
>> demand and price of wood for construction, paper and energy with any
>> scenario (high, low or sustainable development). The degree depends on how
>> quickly developing countries other than China impact global demand. Right
>> now Japanese paper production was reduced by the Tsunami – three paper mills
>> were put out of action - which, combined with increases in Chinese demand,
>> has had a dramatic impact on our wood and wood residues prices on the West
>> Coast of the US. Some wood energy projects that I am working on are no
>> longer economically feasible due to this external demand. A client in
>> Michigan tells a similar story. There is no wood fuel available for his
>> project at an affordable price. These are just early warnings about the
>> impact of fiber and fuel shortages.     ****
>>
>> Tom****
>>
>> ** **
>>
>> ** **
>>  *From:* stoves-bounces at lists.bioenergylists.org [mailto:
>> stoves-bounces at lists.bioenergylists.org] *On Behalf Of *Crispin
>> Pemberton-Pigott
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, June 22, 2011 6:23 AM
>> *To:* Stoves
>> *Subject:* [Stoves] Anticipating future markets for stoves and fuels****
>>
>> ** **
>>
>> Dear Friends****
>>
>> One should be aware of the emerging markets in order to plan ahead. The
>> reason for this is that technologies take years to develop, and the same is
>> true for fuel supply chains.****
>>
>> There is an excellent paper by at
>> http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/uploads/media/Moerner_Science_environm_sea_level_3_11_Paper_534.pdfon the climate emerging in the next 40 years.
>> ****
>>
>> The implications of his work, and that of many others who have studied
>> this in-depth (Stuiver and Quay, Hoyt and Schatten, Lean, Cliver, Rind,
>> Bard, Bond, Mazzarella, Friis-Christensen and Lassen, Schove, Sanders &
>> Fairbridge, Finkl and others) are that we are presently heading into a De
>> Vries cycle (event). ****
>>
>> The increasing need for space heating and processed space heating fuels
>> that are customized for dramatically improved stoves opens new opportunities
>> for inventors and market developers.****
>>
>> In particular the need for processed solid fuels is paramount. They can be
>> stored, shipped by many means of transport and are generally energy dense.
>> The appearance of torrefied wood pellets is an example of such a fuel. **
>> **
>>
>> There are lots of new ideas to think about.****
>>
>> Regards****
>>
>> Crispin****
>>
>> ** **
>>
>> ** **
>>
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>>
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