[Stoves] Stove types and poverty [Was Rogerio: Pro-publicaarticle out]

Crispin Pemberton-Pigott crispinpigott at outlook.com
Mon Jul 30 13:10:25 CDT 2018


Dear Ashok

You have thankfully used all the correct words – others do not.

Let’s see if I can tackle this as an observer:

It is indeed, as you say, an estimate.  Technically, it is an attribution based on estimates. There is actually a chain of sequential estimates and attributions:

The “causal” exposure is estimated, all PM is assumed, without justification and in the presence of blatant contradiction, to be equitoxic (“in the absence of proof that it is not” – EPA).  Premature deaths are not caused, they are attributed.

There are a couple of approaches taken to get a best approximation: The source emissions are estimated, the dispersion is estimated, the resulting concentrations are estimated, the exposure is estimated, the inhalation from that exposure is estimated, the absorption in the body is estimated, the Relative Risk (of disease) is estimated, and the disability adjusted live years (prematurity) are estimated from that, but for the whole cohort already dead, not an exposed individual. There are no actual numbers for anything except the total number of dead who were less than 86 years old when they passed.

Then, failing to understand what lies behind the attributions, numerous writers claim that using a wood stove exposes one to “smoke” that “kills” x-many people per year, not “shortens their lives by an estimated amount” as per the source reference.

The confabulation goes on: It is often claimed that the specific user of the stove is the one affected, and that this estimate of the Relative Risk can be reduced for that particular person, ignoring the fact that the estimate was (in some cases) for a national population cohort based on the WHO’s “allowed” 51 causes of death. Contributions to premature death are assessed by the GBD exercise. In fact there is a complete misrepresentation happening. The GBD attributions (by public health people) are being treated as medically certificated causes of death (by medical people).  Public Health and Medicine are distinct fields.

Worse, for all of us, is the claim by the WHO and many others, that the root problem is not exposure to the emissions from bad stoves, but to emissions that are inherent in the fuel. This claim is so foolish, and so obviously incorrect, I for one cannot understand how it is sustained as an argument in a professional environment. If I burn ordinary wood badly, I will produce all manner of toxic results. If I burn it perfectly, I will get none. This is not a complicated reality. To claim that wood, in fact virtually all solid fuels cannot be burned cleanly is a plain lie, not a statistical lie.  How can we base public policy on fundamental untruths?

In these circumstances I am surprised that someone as experienced as Nikhil can restrain his speech to something printable.

Best regards
Crispin



Crispin Pemberton-Pigott
Technical advisor to ESMAP<http://www.esmap.org/>, World Bank Washington
International Technical Consultant to WB CSI domestic energy projects in Central Asia

P-Member, SABS TC-1054 (South Africa)
Registered expert in ISO TC-285: WG1, WG2, WG3, WG4 representing the World Bank

Adjunct Professor:
Ministry of Agriculture’s Key Lab of Clean Production and Utilization of Renewable Energy, Ministry of Agriculture,
P. R. China, College of Engineering, China Agricultural University
P. O. Box 50, No. 17 Qinghua Donglu
Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China
Tel: +86-130-7211-3233
Web: http://best.cau.edu.cn<http://best.cau.edu.cn/>
Email<mailto:crispinpigott at outlook.com> crispinpigott at outlook.com
Skype<crispinpigott> crispinpigott
Canadian office +1-519-886-7772

++++++++

Dear Nikhil,

Many of us are ignorant of the basis of your harsh assessment of WHO estimate.

Can you be more helpful?  Can you please point to articles, reports, or blogs, something countering the assessment that attributes 3 to 4 million annual premature deaths to exposure to biomass smoke?

Thanks.
-- Ashok
Sent from handheld.
Pls xcuse brvty and tpoys.

On Jul 29, 2018, at 9:57 AM, Nikhil Desai <pienergy2008 at gmail.com<mailto:pienergy2008 at gmail.com>> wrote:
Dear Ron:

Re: "There is no doubt that this important international stove facility at Berkeley believes in the importance of improving cookstoves for the millions of annual death reasons documented by WHO and others"

OH YES, there is ALL DOUBT, for anybody with time to examine WHO "documentation". Did you look?

Keep the faith. Gas is God. (At least when money is God.)

Nikhil

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nikhil Desai
(US +1) 202 568 5831
Skype: nikhildesai888
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