[Gasification] Levelised Energy Cost calculation for UBC 2MWe gasifier

[David Coote]

I ran my Levelised Energy Cost Model ($/MWH) for the 2MWe electricity 
supply over 20 years for a range of turnkey and fuel costs on the plant 
using the following assumptions (I used 24% for electrical efficiency 
for comparison with a 5MWe SRC system):

Annual operations (hours) 	7,500
Annual O&M as % of initial investment 	10.0%
Discount rate 	5.0%
Plant electrical efficiency
	24.0%
Fuel Moisture content 	47.0%
GCV (MJ/kg) 	19.0





Plant cost 	Fuel cost/tonne

	$0.0 	$10.0 	$20.0 	$30.0 	$40.0 	$50.0
$16,000,000 	$188.18 	$206.42 	$224.65 	$242.88 	$261.12 	$279.35
$17,000,000 	$199.94 	$218.18 	$236.41 	$254.64 	$272.88 	$291.11
$18,000,000 	$211.71 	$229.94 	$248.17 	$266.40 	$284.64 	$302.87
$19,000,000 	$223.47 	$241.70 	$259.93 	$278.17 	$296.40 	$314.63
$20,000,000 	$235.23 	$253.46 	$271.69 	$289.93 	$308.16 	$326.39
$21,000,000 	$246.99 	$265.22 	$283.46 	$301.69 	$319.92 	$338.16


this is without the revenue from heat sales which would bring the 
levelised cost down a bit depending on what they can sell the steam for 
and for how many hours a year. If they're using the steam for chillers 
as well as space heating this would help bump up steam revenue. Based on 
some European data, heat capacity factors might be as low as 15-20%.

It would be interesting to know the UBC campus electricity load profile. 
If the baseload is less than 2MWe they will either have to turndown 
(less hours to amortise the supply over which pushes up the price/kWh) 
or sell into the Canadian grid at a heavy loss.

The numbers look a lot better as the installed price/kWe comes down. 
There probably wouldn't be large learning curve savings on the engines 
so the potential drop is in the gasifier price as more get built. The 
other potential drop is in the annual O&M. This should come down as the 
gasifiers improve

Cheers

David
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