[Greenbuilding] NYC 90% emissions cut with windows

Jason Holstine jason at amicusgreen.com
Wed Mar 20 13:13:19 CDT 2013


I betcha they welcome such an analytical critique and conversation.

It¹s a big problem, so you start by shooting for the sky then work backwards
... identify gaps, holes and weaknesses, then work to address, plug and fix
them so they can become strengths and opportunities, and if you end up with
a 40, 50 or 70% GHG redux, I¹m pretty sure you¹ve done a helluva more than
any other urban center. And in so doing, creating knowledge bases and
economies of scale to redefine what¹s possible elsewhere in the economy.

Bloomberg hasn¹t been shy about tackling large social ills, for good and for
bad. Fundamentally we need that to break citizens and consumers out of
really bad ignorance that negatively impacts the macro level.


On 3/20/13 12:53 PM, "Michael Iversen" <miversen at uic.edu> wrote:

> I reviewed the ¹90 by 50¹ report, and its conclusions are based on invalid
> assumptions, extrapolations and projections placed outside the context of
> reality in terms of economic and social behavior. Basically, the report
> concludes that IF ALL buildings in NYC were retrofitted or designed with
> rigorous energy measures, and IF ALL buildings were equipped with rooftop
> photovoltaic systems, and IF ALL source energy was carbon-free electricity,
> then a 90 percent reduction in building sector-related GHG emissions is
> possible by 2050.
> 
> Report Assumption 1: All building stock is assumed to be retrofitted /
> designed with existing and near-term efficiency technologies, specifically;
> air sealing, heat recovery ventilation, and additional insulation, to a point
> where all heating, cooling, and hot water can be provided by electric heat
> pumps. Capital outlays are estimated at a discounted net present value $94
> billion.
> 
> - Comment: While energy retrofitting of existing building stock is a valid
> strategy to reduce GHG, the projection of findings based on perfect model
> simulations for each building type to the entire building stock is extremely
> unrealistic, in terms of financial costs and building ownership / management
> behavior. The $94 billion costs need to be placed in the context of local,
> state, and federal economic deficits. The report needs to project the extent
> of retrofitting based on historic data, not unrealistic goals.
> 
> Report Assumption 2: All remaining building loads to be carbon-free
> electricity. After reducing total building energy use by 50 to 60 percent, all
> remaining building energy in 2050 (50.6 TWh) is to be supplied by carbon-free
> electricity, in order to meet the 90 percent reduction target.
> 
> Photovoltaic arrays may be added to every single building in NYC (covering up
> to 60 percent of the available rooftop area), so as to provide 10.7 TWh.
> 
> The report enumerates potential sources of adequate carbon-free electricity,
> but states that a detailed analysis is beyond the scope of this study. Besides
> the previously mentioned electricity from photovoltaics (10.7 TWh), the
> remaining 39.9 TWh are to be provided a) 2,600 4.0MW wind turbines, occupying
> 35 to 40 square miles, b) an additional 86 million square meters of
> photovoltaic panels with a footprint of 66 square miles, c) 3 or 4 new 1000 MW
> nuclear power plants, d) increased hydropower from Quebec, and e) electricity
> generation from biogas derived from waste and sewage treatment.
> 
> - Comment: To assume 100% of buildings will be retrofitted with pv arrays
> covering 60% of roof area is an unsubstantiated overestimate, and does not
> factor building structural capacity, financial capacity, and social behavior
> of private building ownership / management.
> 
> - Comment: To simply assume that 39.9 ­ 50.6 (TWh) of source energy is to
> carbon free is equivalent to saying it will be provided by magic beans. Any
> proposed strategy would be valid of all remaining source energy would be
> carbon free.
> 
> Summary: if anything, this report points to how difficult it is to achieve a
> 90 percent reduction of GHG emissions related to the building sector by 2050.
> While some of the data findings were of value and interest, any interpretation
> of findings, unless grounded in the relatity of economic and social behavior,
> will provide only false conclusions.
> 
> I welcome other viewpoints on this study.
> 
> Michael Iversen
> Architect, LEED AP, PhD Candidate
> Department of Urban Planning and Policy
> University of Illinois at Chicago
> 
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