[Stoves] SDG 7 on "clean cooking solutions" - high hopes for improved biomass cookstoves

Tue May 28 16:56:16 CDT 2019

 Full report on energy access progress at
https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/data/files/download-documents/2019-Tracking%20SDG7-Full%20Report.pdf
.
To be presented tomorrow in Vancouver.

This is the first time I have seen a scenario for 2030 (p. 105) with a
specific share for different technologies for cooking by 2030 - Improved
Biomass Cookstoves 34%, Gas 26%, LPG and kerosene 26%, electricity 11%, and
"other" the remainder.

The hope is that some 600 million customers await "improved biomass
cookstoves" from now out to 2030. (Household size declines with
urbanization and even in rural areas, so the classical "3 billion" is a
useless number in computing customer potential).

The disappointment is that nobody is really funding anything toward
"improved biomass cookstoves", save some tiny, tiny projects thus far.

Take heart;  market potential for "improved biomass cookstoves" is safe and
secure. If only enough "results based finance" could be mobilized for
designing local air quality programs where cleaner cooking and heating (all
types of customers and appliance sizes, and all locally accessible fuels),
then incentivizing the supply chain in business and bureaucracy.

[image: image.png]

Whatever the "Improved Biomass Cookstoves" are, including all primary and
secondary biomass, they are the types that qualify for "clean cooking
solutions". I wonder if IEA checked with Kirk Smith, who claims there are
as yet no "truly health protective" biomass stoves for households, and that
solid fuel stoves kill by definition.

Details of this "Sustainable Development Scenario" are with IEA. It is NOT
the same as the "New Policies Scenario", so matching the "Clean cooking
access rates" and "SDG gap" on the left hand of this chart to the pie chart
on the right hand is problematic.

My suspicion - cynical or pessimistic - is that the "New Policies Scenario"
on the left has no biomass cookstoves, improved or otherwise, and that that
the 34% on the right hand side refers to some generic biomass cookstove,
improved or not (since there is no baseline or efficiency gain target
anyway).

The report does say, "Based on population projections and the current
trajectory, around 2.2 billion people will be without access to clean
cooking by 2030." After "more than 580 million people would move away
from traditional uses of biomass for cooking by 2030."

Under the UN definition, "less developed regions" will have a population of
7.25 billion people by 2030 (medium projection, UN), 34% of which means 2.5
billion people. The difference between 2.5 billion served by "Improved
biomass cookstoves" and 2.2 billion "without access to clean cooking" is
puzzling. Essentially IEA is saying that "improved biomass cookstoves" will
not qualify as "access to clean cooking". This is ideological hogwash.

Or that IEA modelers don't know much about "traditional uses of biomass for
cooking" and "improved biomass cookstoves".

It is entirely possible that IEA modeling doesn't amount to beans because
it relies on a questionable database (contact me if you want laughs) and
ignores "stacking" altogether. Nor do these data say anything about
quantities of fuels - biomass, LPG, kerosene, gas, or electricity. IEA
knows nothing; I confirmed in 2008/9 and again in 2012.

>From the ExSum portion on "clean fuels and technologies for cooking":

The share of the global population with access to clean fuels and
technologies for cooking increased from 57% [51, 62] in 2010 to 61% [54,
67] in 2017. However, because population growth is outpacing annual growth
in access, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, the population without access
to clean cooking remains just under 3 billion (figure ES4). Between 2010
and 2017, the percentage of the population relying on clean cooking
solutions grew by an annual average of 0.5 percentage points [-0.5, 1.6]2 ,
though annual progress slowed in 2008. During this period, global
improvements were driven by gains in the regions of Central and Southern
Asia and Eastern and Southeastern Asia, which posted average annual
increases of 1.2 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively. To reach
universal clean cooking targets by 2030 and outpace population growth, the
annual average increase in access must rise to 3 percentage points, from
the rate of 0.5 percentage points observed between 2010 and 2017.
....
In most access-deficit regions, the use of wood is steadily declining, but
this trend is offset by an increase in charcoal usage, primarily in
Sub-Saharan Africa. An inverse relationship between kerosene and cleaner
gaseous fuels (liquid petroleum gas, natural gas, and biogas) has also been
observed: as kerosene use declines, reliance on cleaner gaseous fuels for
cooking increases. The uptake of cleaner fuels remains slow in rural
Africa, in large part due to issues of affordability and supply. The
business as usual pathway will not meet the universal access goal by 2030.
Based on the projections of current and planned policies, the IEA estimates
that 2.2 billion people will still be dependent on inefficient and
polluting energy sources for cooking. Most of this population will reside
in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. To achieve universal access by 2030,
greater use of liquid petroleum gas would be appropriate in urban areas
(accounting for an estimated 92% of new connections) since population
density justifies the necessary investment in infrastructure. *Meanwhile,
improved biomass cookstoves, which represent 37% of clean cooking
solutions, would be particularly suited for rural or more remote areas* "
(p. 6. emphasis added)

 Nikhil

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nikhil Desai
(US +1) 202 568 5831
*Skype: nikhildesai888*

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Arthur.CONTEJEAN at iea.org <Arthur.CONTEJEAN at iea.org>
Date: Thu, May 23, 2019 at 2:29 PM
Subject: 2019 Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report
To: Climate Change Info Mailing List <climate-l at lists.iisd.ca>

Dear Colleagues,

It is with great pleasure that we would like to invite you to the
presentation of the Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report, which will
take place at the 10th Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) in Vancouver from
8:00 to 9:00 on 29th May, in room MR 201.

The 2019 Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report has just been released
today. The report annually reviews progress toward Sustainable Development
Goal (SDG) 7 at the global, regional, and country levels, for all adopted
targets. It is a joint effort of the UN appointed custodian agencies,
namely the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Renewable
Energy Agency (IRENA), the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), the
World Bank, and the World Health Organization (WHO). The IEA has been proud
to chair this year the preparation of the report.

The report’s findings suggest that the world is making progress towards SDG
7 targets, but will fall short of meeting them by 2030. Ensuring
affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030 remains
possible but will require more sustained efforts particularly to reach some
of the world’s poorest populations and to improve energy sustainability.

IEA’s Executive Director, Dr. Fatih Birol, will present the key findings of
the report, alongside high level representatives from the World Bank and
IRENA.

We look forward to seeing you there. If you wish to register, please enter
your information on this link, no later than Friday 24 May:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScDxkfa2d6YO5gXKWFOhrz2fe4GuVlgnYbXNslAsjjixpcBDA/viewform
For more information, please do not hesitate to contact Mr. Arthur
Contejean (Arthur.CONTEJEAN at iea.org<mailto:Arthur.CONTEJEAN at iea.org>).

Best regards,

Laura Cozzi
Chief Energy Modeller
International Energy Agency
http://enb.iisd.org/email/climate-l/
--------------------------------------------------------
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.bioenergylists.org/pipermail/stoves_lists.bioenergylists.org/attachments/20190528/628836a5/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 93906 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.bioenergylists.org/pipermail/stoves_lists.bioenergylists.org/attachments/20190528/628836a5/attachment.png>